Chargers vs. Raiders NFL Week 13 Best Bets: Josh Jacobs’ Encore?

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Josh Jacobs #28 of the Las Vegas Raiders carries the ball for a touchdown in overtime to beat the Seattle Seahawks. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP.

Two old rivals meet again as the Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) take on the Las Vegas Raiders (4-7). The Raiders have their first winning streak in the Josh McDaniels era after scoring a touchdown in overtime two weeks in a row, including an 86-yard touchdown run by Josh Jacobs in Seattle.

The Chargers also came back in Arizona for a 25-24 win after a two-point conversion in the final 15 seconds.

The Chargers are a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 51 points at many California betting sites. It usually is a close, one-score game in the fourth quarter when these teams meet, but do the Raiders have the edge with their ability to run the ball?

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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at Allegiant Stadium

Week 1 Recap: Chargers 24 - Raiders 19

Going back to the opener, both teams were much more hopeful of their chances to overtake the Chiefs at the top of the AFC West. But we know things did not play out that way at all.

Still, you couldn’t tell these teams were destined for a combined 10-12 start back in Week 1. Justin Herbert came out on fire and was sharp with 26-of-34 passing for 279 yards and three touchdowns. The 129.4 passer rating he had is still his highest game this season, and he wouldn’t have another game with three touchdowns and zero interceptions until Week 12 in Arizona.

Despite Herbert’s accuracy and the Chargers twice leading by 14 points, the Raiders were down 24-19 with the ball in the final minutes. But Derek Carr took back-to-back sacks, including a fourth-down stop by former teammate Khalil Mack, who finished with 3.0 sacks in his team debut. The Chargers were finally able to run out the clock, though they only finished with 31 carries for 76 yards on the ground.

Wide receiver Keenan Allen left the game early with a hamstring injury that would continue to bother him for weeks. He was dominating early with 66 yards too, and he is back now, but the Chargers are without Mike Williams. The Chargers also do not have Joey Bosa, and despite Mack’s dominant Week 1, he has 1 sack in his last five games.

Will the Raiders Lean on Jacobs Again?

Back in Week 1, Raiders' running back Josh Jacobs was not thought of as an elite player at his position. A first-round pick in 2019, Jacobs barely averaged 4.0 yards per carry the last two years and finished 2021 with just 872 rushing yards in 15 games.

In Week 1, the Chargers held Jacobs to 10 carries for 58 yards as the Raiders fell in love with forcing the ball to Davante Adams, who had 17 targets in his team debut.

For the first three weeks of the season, the Raiders had little idea on how to mix Adams in with established receivers Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller. Both of those guys were not playing as well with Carr as they did in 2021.

Jacobs' Explosion

Jacobs was an afterthought with an average of 14 carries for 64 yards over the first three games. But in Week 4 against Denver, Jacobs led the way with 28 carries for a career-high 144 yards in the team’s first win. A week later in Kansas City, Jacobs was even better with 154 yards in a game the team nearly won after blowing a 17-0 lead.

A week later against Houston’s terrible rush defense, Jacobs may have reset his career high in rushing yards for the third week in a row had the Texans not had a late pick-six. Instead, he settled for 143 yards.

The whole Vegas team faceplanted in New Orleans in a 24-0 loss, ending Jacobs’ streak of 140-yard games at three. But in Week 11 against Denver, he once again hit the century mark with 109 yards in an overtime win.

On Sunday, Jacobs had the best game of his career in Seattle. He finished with 303 yards from scrimmage, 229 rushing yards, and his second touchdown was an 86-yard sprint in overtime to win the game.

Jacobs Against the Chargers

Jacobs has played the Chargers six times and has mostly been held in check with 4.2 yards per carry. His only 100-yard game was in Week 18 last year when the Raiders prevailed 35-32 in overtime to take the final playoff spot. Jacobs had 132 yards on the ground in that game.

The Chargers are no strangers to bad run defense. This year’s defense ranks 28th in yards allowed and 32nd in yards per carry (5.4). Jacobs is averaging a career-high 5.4 yards per carry in 2022.

It would be crazy if Jacobs did not find the end zone against this bad run defense. We like him as an anytime touchdown scorer in this one, and he should be the biggest edge for the Raiders as they can bring a balanced attack while the Chargers mostly have to rely on Herbert’s heroics.

NFL Prop Pick: Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (Odds TBD)

Chargers vs. Raiders: Best Bets and Prediction

Over the last two seasons, the Chargers have held just three teams under 90 rushing yards, and two of them were home games against the Raiders.

Look for the Raiders to take the running game they have developed over the season to a new level here and get a much more balanced attack than they had in Week 1. We also know Adams can produce on this defense, which has lost Bosa and J.C. Jackson since that Week 1 meeting.

It would be a shock for this game to not be close in the fourth quarter, since practically every game these teams have played outside of ugly losses to the Saints (Raiders lost 24-0) and Jaguars (Chargers lost 38-10) have been close.

Carr is still a flawed quarterback, but you cannot deny that he gets it done in the fourth quarter more than you’d expect given his overall record. His 27th fourth-quarter comeback win last week ties him for the most such wins in a quarterback’s first 10 seasons in NFL history. The thing is Carr is still playing in his ninth season.

The Chargers have not swept the Raiders since 2018 when they were still in Oakland. Division rematches can be wild but, following the NFL odds, look for the Raiders to split the season series with a higher-scoring home win for your NFL picks.

Score Prediction: Raiders 28 - Chargers 24

NFL Pick: Raiders +1.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Raiders +1.5 (-110)
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NFL Pick: Over 51 Points (-105) at Bovada

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Over 51 Points (-105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.