How March Madness Betting Works: Tournament Structure, Odds, and Market Behavior

March Madness is one of the most active betting periods in North American sports. The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament features 68 teams competing in a single-elimination format, creating a fast-moving market environment defined by volatility, public participation, and rapid pricing adjustments.

Unlike professional leagues with long seasons and playoff series, March Madness unfolds over three weeks of consecutive elimination games. Every matchup is decisive, and every round reshapes futures markets dramatically at offshore sportsbooks.

This guide explains how March Madness betting works, how odds are structured, and why tournament design plays such a significant role in pricing.

Why March Madness Betting Is Structurally Unique

March Madness differs from regular-season college basketball for several reasons:

• Single-elimination format
• Neutral-site games
• Condensed schedule
• High public participation

Because teams do not have the opportunity to recover from losses, variance plays a much larger role than in conference play or professional playoff series. A single poor shooting performance can eliminate a top seed immediately.

Neutral venues also reduce traditional home-court advantage, forcing markets to rely more heavily on matchup analytics and travel considerations.

Tournament Format and Seeding Impact

The NCAA Tournament begins with 68 teams and narrows to 64 after the First Four play-in games. From there, the bracket progresses through:

• Round of 64
• Round of 32
• Sweet 16
• Elite Eight
• Final Four
• National Championship

Each team is assigned a seed within its region, ranging from 1 (strongest) to 16 (lowest). Seeding plays a major role in public perception, but markets often adjust beyond raw seed numbers.

Historically, higher seeds win more often, but upsets are a defining characteristic of March Madness. Double-digit seeds frequently advance beyond the opening round, which influences pricing for future matchups.

Core March Madness Betting Markets

Point Spreads

Point spreads remain the most common wager during the tournament. Spreads account for perceived team strength, tempo, defensive efficiency, and matchup dynamics.

Because public participation increases dramatically during March Madness, spreads may reflect both analytical modeling and expected betting volume.

For readers seeking a deeper understanding of how spreads function across sports, see our point spread betting guide.

Totals (Over/Under)

Totals markets focus on combined scoring. In tournament settings, totals can be influenced by:

• Pace of play
• Defensive matchups
• Travel fatigue
• Shooting regression

Early-round games sometimes produce slower tempos due to pressure and unfamiliar opponents, which can impact totals pricing.

Moneylines

Moneylines remove the spread and focus on which team advances. Because tournament games cannot end in ties, pricing reflects overtime probability and matchup volatility.

Underdog moneylines often attract attention during March Madness due to the tournament’s upset-driven narrative.

Futures (Tournament Winner)

Futures markets allow bettors to select the eventual national champion before or during the tournament.

Futures pricing adjusts dramatically after each round. A team that survives an early scare may see odds shorten if competitors in its region are eliminated.

View March Madness tournament odds for 2026.

Bracket Pools vs. Traditional Betting

One of the defining features of March Madness is bracket participation. Millions of fans fill out brackets predicting the outcome of every game.

Bracket contests differ from traditional betting because:

• Entries must predict all rounds in advance
• Scoring systems reward later-round accuracy
• Upset selection strategy becomes strategic

While bracket pools are often informal or promotional in nature, they influence public conversation and perception, which can indirectly impact betting volume on certain teams.

Public Money and Market Movement

March Madness attracts significant casual betting interest. This can influence line movement in ways that differ from regular-season markets.

Highly visible programs — such as blue-blood universities — may attract disproportionate public support, potentially causing minor pricing shifts.

However, high liquidity during the tournament often stabilizes lines quickly, especially as professional bettors enter the market closer to tip-off.

Regional Dynamics and Travel Factors

Although games are played at neutral sites, geography still matters. Teams assigned to regions closer to their campus may benefit from:

• Larger fan presence
• Reduced travel fatigue
• Familiar climate conditions

These subtle factors are incorporated into pricing models, particularly in early rounds.

As the tournament progresses to the Final Four, geographic advantage diminishes because teams typically travel farther from home.

Live Betting During March Madness

Live betting plays an increasingly important role in tournament wagering. Because games are high-stakes and elimination-based, in-game momentum swings can produce sharp pricing adjustments.

Live markets adjust based on:

• Foul trouble
• Three-point shooting variance
• Turnover margin
• Pace changes

College basketball’s shorter shot clock and three-point variance create opportunities for rapid scoring runs, which directly influence in-play odds.

For more on real-time pricing mechanics, see our live betting guide.

How March Madness Fits Within the Broader Betting Landscape

Compared to professional basketball, March Madness markets are:

• More upset-prone
• More public-driven
• More volatile due to elimination format
• More narrative-influenced

The compressed schedule and national attention create one of the most liquid betting environments of the year, rivaling major championship events in other sports.

Because each round reshapes the tournament bracket, futures and matchup markets remain highly dynamic from start to finish.