Hollywood’s biggest night might still be months away, but the Oscars betting market is already buzzing. The 2026 Academy Awards race for Best Picture is always the most interesting, especially if you’re looking to bet on the Oscars, as this is where the real drama begins.
Here at Bookmakers Review, we’ve compiled betting odds for the Oscars. Right now, sportsbooks have One Battle After Another as the clear favorite at -325. But Hamnet at +300 is closing the gap quickly, gaining critical heat and festival momentum.
Every year, Oscar bettors fall for the same myths: the prestige picture that “has” to win, the December release with “momentum,” the studio that “always delivers.” But the Oscars rarely reward predictability. What looks like a lock in January can turn into heartbreak by March.
That’s the thrill and the trap of Oscars betting. The question isn’t just who will win Best Picture, but whether you can see through the noise before the rest of the crowd does. With that in mind, let’s break down the contenders, the odds, and the narratives that could define the 2026 Academy Awards race for Best Picture.
2026 Oscars Best Picture Betting Odds and Contenders
The 2026 Oscars Best Picture race is already taking shape in the sportsbooks, even though the official nominees haven’t been released yet. The Academy Awards nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026, ahead of the ceremony in March 2026. Until then, the odds reflect a mix of festival buzz, critical acclaim, and early industry chatter.
Here are the latest Oscars betting odds, courtesy of BetOnline, which is one of the best offshore sportsbooks.
- One Battle After Another: -325
The heavy favorite and presumed frontrunner, this war epic has dominated critics’ lists and early award precursors. - Hamnet: +300
A poetic Shakespeare-inspired drama that’s gathering momentum as a strong emotional contender. - Sinners: +800
The edgy, provocative choice, including bold storytelling and critical praise make it a dark horse in the race. - Sentimental Value: +1000
A crowd-pleaser with heart, often the kind of film that wins over Academy voters late in the season. - Marty Supreme: +1200
A stylized auteur project that could ride its director’s reputation and a passionate fanbase to a surprise nomination. - Bugonia: +1200
Visually ambitious and thematically rich, it’s the arthouse darling that could appeal to the craft branches. - After The Hunt: +1400
A tense, character-driven drama is gaining traction on the festival circuit with powerhouse performances. - The Smashing Machine: +1400
A gritty biopic that has both the critical acclaim and emotional weight the Academy often rewards. - Anemone: +1400
A quiet, introspective film with an international flair. Think of it as this year’s subtle, slow-burn contender. - Jay Kelly: +1400
A rising-star vehicle that’s earned breakout buzz, positioning it as a possible sleeper pick for a nomination.
While the odds will fluctuate as awards season unfolds, these 10 titles are the early favorites to dominate the 2026 Academy Awards Best Picture race.
Interested in other entertainmnet betting markets? Place your wagers on The Voice today.
2026 Oscars Best Picture Longshots to Watch
While the top 10 contenders dominate the Oscars betting odds, a few intriguing longshots could shake up the race if the Academy surprises. These aren’t the favorites right now, but each has the potential to make a late-season surge depending on box office, momentum, and how voters respond once nominations drop.
What’s interesting is that each of these films were listed as potential nominees in Oscar predictions from Variety.
Avatar: Fire & Ash (+1600)
James Cameron’s latest entry in the Avatar saga can never be counted out. While franchise fatigue is real, Cameron’s technical mastery and box office pull could still capture enough votes for a Best Picture nod.
Frankenstein (+1800)
Guillermo del Toro’s reimagining of the classic tale has all the elements of an Oscars wild card: bold direction, gothic beauty, and emotional depth. If the film lands with voters the way The Shape of Water did, it could easily outperform its odds.
Train Dreams (+4000)
Based on Denis Johnson’s novella, this one’s the true underdog: a haunting American story that could emerge as a critical darling. Don’t expect it to dominate the conversation early, but if word-of-mouth builds during awards season, Train Dreams might just become the sleeper hit that sneaks onto the Best Picture ballot.
These films may be longshots in Academy Awards betting, but history has shown that surprises are common at the Oscars.
Our 2026 Oscars Best Picture Best Bet: Train Dreams
Every Oscars season has its wild card: that one film no one sees coming until it’s suddenly everywhere. This year, our pick for the best bet to win Best Picture isn’t the frontrunner with flashy odds or the studio-backed juggernaut. It’s the quiet contender whispering its way into the race: Train Dreams at +4000.
Train Dreams has slowly built a wave of admiration on the festival circuit, praised for its raw Americana, emotional resonance, and stark beauty. It’s the kind of film that doesn’t shout its greatness: it lingers, grows, and stays with you. That’s often the secret ingredient for an Academy Awards dark horse.
- Bet on the Golden Globes to get ready for the Oscars with our Podcast of the Year betting odds.
With Train Dreams predicted as a surprise nominee at Variety, we can view this as a signal that buzz is turning into belief. If the narrative of “small movie with a big soul” takes hold, it could capture the hearts of voters looking for something authentic amid the spectacle.
At +4000, this is the kind of longshot that you want to target in a volatile market like Oscars betting. It’s too risky to lay such heavy juice on the One Battle After Another at (-325) odds.
How to Bet on The Oscars Best Picture:
Wagering on the 2026 Oscars is an easy process, even if you’re a newcomer to entertainment betting markets. Follow these steps to get started:
- Sign up at BetOnline.
- Click “Sports.”
- Head to the Entertainment section in the sidebar menu.
- Tap “Oscars.”
- Choose the movie that you think will win Best Picture.
- Select “Place Bet.”
The current deadline to place your Oscars bets is November 30th, but that is subject to change. With that said, it’s a great time to bet on Best Picture before the market adjusts to movies with momentum, like Train Dreams.
