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UEFA Champions League best bets for the second leg of the round of 16
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALThe second legs of the UEFA Champions League round of 16 are this week and next, and now is when this season's rule change definitively comes into play. UEFA abolished the away-goals tiebreaker before this season, so if the game is level on aggregate after 90 minutes of the second leg, 30 minutes of extra time would be played, then penalties if necessary.
As one example of how this change affects strategy for teams and betting, PSG beat Real Madrid 1-0 in last month's first leg in Paris. Previously, a 2-1 second-leg loss in Madrid would have been enough to get PSG through on away goals. Now that result would send a game to extra time, so PSG would be incentivized to press for an equalizer in the second leg.
With all that in mind, let's get to this week's games.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Tuesday
Liverpool vs. Internazionale (Liverpool won first leg 2-0)
Inter Milan defended well in the first leg and had several counterattacking chances that didn't always result in good shots. Goals in the final 16 minutes from Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah have Liverpool in great shape to advance though, as the -5000 odds suggest.Part of the reason for those drastic odds is that Inter hasn't been good on the road of late, with draws in four straight games and scoring a total of one goal. Games at Atalanta, Napoli and AC Milan were all scoreless this year, and Inter particularly struggled in the first half, getting outshot by all three opponents.
Conversely, Liverpool has led at half in 13-of-22 home games this season. The Reds have won 17 of those home games, getting outshot once, by Manchester City in October. Liverpool is also unbeaten in 2022, winning 12-of-15 games with two draws against Chelsea and one versus Arsenal.
Even though a draw or a one-goal loss will put Liverpool through, I expect Salah and company to push for a win, particularly in the first half. Inter will have to attack more than in the first leg, which opens the proverbial door for Liverpool to tack on more goals and put the series away. I like Liverpool across the board here.
Picks: Liverpool to win first half (+115), Liverpool win (-175), over 2.5 goals (-145)
Bayern Munich vs. FC Salzburg (1st Leg was 1-1 draw)
For the first hour of the first leg, Salzburg's defense was better than anticipated, limiting Bayern to just 12 shots and 1.0 expected goals. Then, Bayern's pressure produced 10 shots and 1.4 xG over the final half hour, capped by Kingsley Coman's 90th-minute equalizer.Robert Lewandowski played all 90 minutes and had zero shots, the first time he'd done that for Bayern in 248 appearances since January 2017. He seems likely to get a goal here, though the -300 price isn't worth it for a guy who's scored in 71% of his games this season (24 out of 34).
As the odds of a Bayern win suggest (-520), the Bundesliga leaders are a massive favorite to win -- and even more of a favorite to advance (-1200). Scoring is a near certainty too, since Bayern hasn't been shut out at home in over two years and 49 home games, since a 0-0 draw versus RB Leipzig in February 2020.
Assuming a Bayern goal, the question is then whether or not Salzburg can nick one again. Bayern's defense hasn't been great in 2022, allowing 0.16 expected goals per shot in Bundesliga play, second-highest in the league. Saturday's draw against Leverkusen was a microcosm of the problem, as Leverkusen had five excellent chances, four of which came on the counterattack.
Salzburg can strike quickly too, as shown in the first leg, when Salzburg averaged 1.4 passes in the 11 sequences that ended in shots. Even with Manuel Neuer likely back in net, I like Salzburg to get a goal, and I'll play both teams to score, which has happened in seven of Bayern's nine games this year.
Pick: Both teams to score (-125)
Wednesday
Real Madrid vs. Paris Saint-Germain (PSG won first leg 1-0)
The first leg saw Real Madrid do almost nothing offensively (three shots and 0.14 expected goals), while PSG finished nothing until its 21st and final shot -- a Kylian Mbappe goal in the fourth minute of second-half stoppage time. However, other than Lionel Messi's saved penalty, none of PSG's shots were from particularly dangerous situations, with none worth more than 0.11 expected goals.Now Real Madrid returns home, knowing a win is necessary to at least force extra time, and a multi-goal win is needed to advance outright. The question is whether or not Real Madrid open up and press for a goal, or if they'll again play defensively and look to sneak a goal on the counter. My vote goes for the latter. With Casemiro injured and Toni Kroos uncertain, Real Madrid's midfield won't be at full strength, so I expect Marco Veratti and company to control the game once more.
If PSG can strike first, then the Ligue 1 leaders only have to keep Real Madrid from scoring twice. If Real Madrid scores the opener, PSG will likely dominate the game in search of an equalizer. Either way I expect a tight, final-like game that's light on goals, and the draw offers a good price here.
Picks: Under 2.5 goals (+115), Draw (+265)
Manchester City vs. Sporting CP (Man City won first leg 5-0)
This is the only first leg that was decided by more than two goals, as City scored on 5-of-15 shots (and 2.4 xG) while limiting Sporting to three shots from an average distance of 24 yards, with only a single shot from inside the penalty area.After the game, Pep Guardiola said, "The result is a dream, but the performance we can do better." That doesn't bode well for Sporting, nor does City's second-leg performance in last year's round of 16.
After winning the first leg 2-0 at Borussia Monchengladbach a year ago, City won the second leg at home by the same 2-0 score, tallying twice in the first 20 minutes and conceding only six shots. I expect this second leg to look a lot like that one.
City has played 41 games across all competitions this season and their opponents have only reached double-digit shots seven times -- with no club topping 14 shots. Just like the first leg, don't overthink this one, and look for an easy City shutout win.
Pick: Man City win to nil (-150)
