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UEFA Champions League best bets for the first leg of the round of 16
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UEFA Champions League is back! The round of 16 gets underway this week with the first legs in four of the eight matchups.
One rule change to keep in mind is that away goals are no longer the tiebreaker if two teams are level after two legs. Instead, they'll go directly to extra time and then penalties, if needed, to determine who advances. Theoretically, this means that home teams can play less defensively, since surrendering a road goal is not as devastating. In reality, I'm not convinced much will change in the first leg, although the math will be different for next month's second legs.
Let's get to it...
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Tuesday, February 15
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Real Madrid
Though all of the stars won't be available, this is the glamour matchup of the round, featuring the league leaders from France and Spain.
Real Madrid may be without Karim Benzema and left back Ferland Mendy, who haven't played in three weeks because of injuries. Either or both could return, although their effectiveness will remain in question.
Real Madrid's offense has dropped a bit without Benzema this season, averaging 1.6 expected goals per 90 minutes without him, compared to 1.9 with him. He has over one-third of Real Madrid's goals this season (24 out of 70), and Vinicius Junior (15 goals) is the only other Real Madrid player in double digits.
PSG likely won't have Sergio Ramos or Neymar, who hasn't played since November, although his absence hasn't been an issue. PSG has averaged 2.1 expected goals per 90 minutes without Neymar on the field, compared to 1.7 with him.
With PSG back on track domestically, topping the table by 13 points after the weekend, and Real Madrid creeping back towards the La Liga pack, I like PSG to win this first leg outright at basically even money.
Pick: PSG to win first leg (-105)
Sporting CP vs. Manchester City
This play is firmly from the "don't overthink it" camp. Manchester City has been the best team in Europe this season while Sporting has been vulnerable against top teams.Against Borussia Dortmund and Ajax in the group stage, Sporting averaged 42% possession and had an expected goal difference of minus-3.2 over four games. Both those numbers will only drop against City, which has had 66% possession this season and an average expected goal difference of plus-1.5.
Sporting probably won't have injured winger Pedro Goncalves, who is second on the team in both goals (11) and chances created (39), and that will only further hinder the Portuguese side. I like City to win by multiple goals (-125) and I don't mind playing City to keep a clean sheet (+110) if that's more your flavor.
Picks: Manchester City to win by multiple goals (-125), City keeps clean sheet (+110)
Wednesday, February 16
FC Salzburg vs. Bayern Munich
When these teams met in the group stage last year, Bayern won 6-2 in Salzburg and 3-1 in Munich with each game having over 30 shots and 4.6 expected goals.Salzburg's defense has been better this season, conceding only 13 goals in 19 league games and six goals in six UCL group games. On Friday, the Austrian club played its first game after a two-month winter break, posting a come-from-behind 2-1 win over Rapid Vienna, conceding eight shots and 0.5 expected goals. I don't know that their defense is ready for the usual potent Bayern attack though.
Bayern has been cruising all season, averaging 3.5 goals and 3.1 expected goals per game, while conceding right around one goal and one expected goal per game. Seven of Bayern's last eight games have had at least four total goals, and this should be a similar result. I like getting plus-money (+115) on over 3.5 goals.
Pick: Over 3.5 goals (+115)
Internazionale vs. Liverpool
The one futures play I'd consider is Inter to win the title at 50-1. Obviously the round-of-16 matchup with Liverpool is a daunting one. Given Inter's current price to advance (+300) and the likelihood of this side being a similar underdog versus either Bayern or Man City down the road, there is a little value in making the title bet now, especially since Inter has reinforcements on the horizon in new acquisitions Robin Gosens and Felipe Caicedo, who could make their club debuts before the second leg.Inter has obviously played well in climbing to the top of Serie A again, and also looked good in the group stage, allowing the second-fewest expected goals (5.1) despite playing Real Madrid twice. The Italian club may have central defender Alessandro Bastoni back from a sprained ankle by Wednesday, and he would obviously help in slowing down Liverpool's lethal attack.
A year ago, Liverpool was stifled by Real Madrid in the quarterfinals, and I see similar possibilities here against another pedigreed club that has a solid defense and enough of an attack to give the Reds trouble. I'm splitting the difference between Inter's goal line (+0.5, -135) and money line (+235) and going with the "draw no bet" at +150, which means no action if there is a draw.
Pick: Inter to win with draw no bet (+150)
