Thursday NCAA Tourny Sweet 16 Plays

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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
34,364
I've talked about a couple of these in other threads, but I'm on the following:

K-state ML

I like Kansas St. as the dog vs Mich St.

Kansas St. ML +113 Thursday

Mich St. had been feasting at the 3 pt line to end the season. I think they shot like 55% in their last 4-5 games from 3. K-state closes out on 3's exceptionally well allowing ~30% from 3 pt line. Both teams shoot well from the FT line (~75%) but K-state gets there a lot more. 21% of their points come from the line while only 16% for Michigan. While that may not sound like a lot, realize this game will be close and FT's will likely make the difference.

Anyone have early leans on Sweet 16 games.

UConn -3.5

I really like Arkansas in this tournament. Obviously, their last two games (Illinois and Kansas) were impressive. BUT.... UCONN is another animal all together.

Arkansas is on a roll and playing above themselves. The hype, pep, momentum is tough to sustain so, usually, the sweet 16 round is when team's actual performance comes to light. They "come down to earth". Besides, you could say the same hype/momentum is on UConn's side as well 8-2 ATS and 8-2 S
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
34,364
I'm adding:

UCLA ML

Gonzaga is the best Offensive Efficiency team in the country. They score a lot. BUT, UCLA has the 2nd best Def Efficiency. When you compare the other side of the ball, Zags D is good but not great (82nd) while UCLA Off Effic is 21st. This says --> advantage UCLA.

Zags are high tempo but I think UCLA will turn this into a half court game which suits the Bruins tempo.

An amazing stat is that Zags are 0-7 ATS in last 7 NCAA Tourny games.
 
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