Stormtrooper8 NFL 2022

[edawg]

You have to believe Bengals beat KC this weekend, right.
I'm already in at +1.5 Bengals.

There is one good reason to bet the Bengals and that reason is you don't like money.

 

[Tanko]

There is one good reason to bet the Bengals and that reason is you don't like money.

Bengals backers cashed this last weekend.
I like my chances with Mahomes not being 100%.
GL

 

[Wagerallsports]

Should be a great game

 

[JDS]

There is one good reason to bet the Bengals and that reason is you don't like money.

Dawgy if you show your ticket i’ll show mine.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Imagine being proud of 49-45

49-45 +4.70 > 0-0 +0.00

 

[stormtrooper8]

There is one good reason to bet the Bengals and that reason is you don't like money.

I respect a man with confidence

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall record: 49-45-1 +4.75
Week 1: 2-6 -4.35
Week 2: 5-3 +1.80
Week 3: 4-4 +0.65
Week 4: 4-1-1 +2.95
Week 5: 2-3 -1.15
Week 6: 2-4 -2.30
Week 7: 3-3 -1.10
Week 8: 5-5 -0.35
Week 9: 2-4 -2.30
Week 10: 5-2 +2.80
Weeks 11-12: No action
Week 13: 4-2 +1.70
Week 14: 3-2 +0.85
Weeks 15-18: No action/posted in Enik Discord group
Wild Card: 2-5 -3.25
Divisional: 6-1 +8.75


Write ups coming

 

[stormtrooper8]

(price from above)


49ers ML +130

I am taking the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. This is the more confident of my two picks for this weekend. This is tremendous value for what I believe is the best team remaining getting points against the worst team remaining.

Comparing overall season metrics between these two teams is interesting, given that on paper both of these teams are pretty stout. But this match-up is a good example of why you need to look at everything in context, and not rely on numbers

San Francisco is not the same team it was to start the year. It seems obvious to mention the pick-up of McCaffery was a big factor for their change in fortune, winning streak, but his addition can not be overstated; it was the most meaningful transaction of the season. The offense has been dynamite since he joined the roster, adding another layer of dynamic playmaking to an offense already filled with talent. As their playmaking got better, their offensive line continued to gel and get healthier, resulting in 12 consecutive victories -- most of them in dominant fashion.

Obviously the SF defense has been elite, much better than the baseline stats would indicate on the surface. They have a defensive line that is uniquely good in both pass-rushing and against the run -- something the Eagles have not come remotely close to seeing this year. They also have so much speed at linebacker, something that will help tremendously in keeping Hurts contained (as much as you can keep him contained, he's good). If the Eagles can't jump out early and establish the run, Hurts will be put into a situation that he has to win this game with arm. Problem is Niners run defense is elite and one of the best we've seen in a while, with all of their front 7 able to effective negate the run game. While that's not an impossible task by any means, that is the opposite of what the Eagles want to do in this game. This Niners defense is going to a juggernaut that Philly simply hasn't faced this year, and I believe the Eagles are going to be uncomfortable and not able to run the ball.

On the other side of the ball, I think the Niners are going to be able to run the ball effectively in this game. The strength of Philly is their pass rush, but they have proven to be very vulnerable against the run. The 49ers have the weapons and run-blocking scheme to really take advantage of Philly's weaknesses here. If the Eagles are aggressive, they are going to leave the door wide open for guys like McCaffery and Deebo to realllllly punish them. Purdy is a rookie, but there is no reason to believe at this point that he is going to make the costly rookie mistakes. Maybe this is when it finally happens, but so far Purdy has been very poised. I think Philly will be able to contain Aiyuk and Jennings to some degree, but that will probably mean they are not paying enough attention to the middle of the defense where the Niners should be able to find success.

If Purdy finally makes those rookie mistakes, then I think the Eagles have a path to victory. But to me, there's no reason to think he will. To me, the 49ers are the better team on both sides of the ball and I think they win this game outright

 

[Tanko]

(price from above)


49ers ML +130

I am taking the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. This is the more confident of my two picks for this weekend. This is tremendous value for what I believe is the best team remaining getting points against the worst team remaining.

Comparing overall season metrics between these two teams is interesting, given that on paper both of these teams are pretty stout. But this match-up is a good example of why you need to look at everything in context, and not rely on numbers

San Francisco is not the same team it was to start the year. It seems obvious to mention the pick-up of McCaffery was a big factor for their change in fortune, winning streak, but his addition can not be overstated; it was the most meaningful transaction of the season. The offense has been dynamite since he joined the roster, adding another layer of dynamic playmaking to an offense already filled with talent. As their playmaking got better, their offensive line continued to gel and get healthier, resulting in 12 consecutive victories -- most of them in dominant fashion.

Obviously the SF defense has been elite, much better than the baseline stats would indicate on the surface. They have a defensive line that is uniquely good in both pass-rushing and against the run -- something the Eagles have not come remotely close to seeing this year. They also have so much speed at linebacker, something that will help tremendously in keeping Hurts contained (as much as you can keep him contained, he's good). If the Eagles can't jump out early and establish the run, Hurts will be put into a situation that he has to win this game with arm. Problem is Niners run defense is elite and one of the best we've seen in a while, with all of their front 7 able to effective negate the run game. While that's not an impossible task by any means, that is the opposite of what the Eagles want to do in this game. This Niners defense is going to a juggernaut that Philly simply hasn't faced this year, and I believe the Eagles are going to be uncomfortable and not able to run the ball.

On the other side of the ball, I think the Niners are going to be able to run the ball effectively in this game. The strength of Philly is their pass rush, but they have proven to be very vulnerable against the run. The 49ers have the weapons and run-blocking scheme to really take advantage of Philly's weaknesses here. If the Eagles are aggressive, they are going to leave the door wide open for guys like McCaffery and Deebo to realllllly punish them. Purdy is a rookie, but there is no reason to believe at this point that he is going to make the costly rookie mistakes. Maybe this is when it finally happens, but so far Purdy has been very poised. I think Philly will be able to contain Aiyuk and Jennings to some degree, but that will probably mean they are not paying enough attention to the middle of the defense where the Niners should be able to find success.

If Purdy finally makes those rookie mistakes, then I think the Eagles have a path to victory. But to me, there's no reason to think he will. To me, the 49ers are the better team on both sides of the ball and I think they win this game outright

Great write-up ST.


I think its closer to a coin flip on this game. No side for me. I'm on the under. GL

 

[stormtrooper8]

Bengals ML +100


Of the two games, I am less confident in this one. I am happy about the price I got obviously before the line made dramatic shifts towards Bengals being favored.

I would like to acknowledge one thing that scares me about this game....I think KC's defense is a bit underrated, and I think they have a couple pass rushers that could give this Bengals offensive line a real test that the Bills simply couldn't give. That does scares me a tad, to this point that if the Bengals end up being favored by like 3.5, I would consider a spread play on the Chiefs for value's sake. There are obviously holes in the Chiefs defense overall, but it's not some dreadful unit that the media may lead you to believe. They have some great pass rushers, and that could test out some of these backup linemen.

With that said, there are two primary reasons I like the Bengals here. And they're pretty simple, one on each side of the field.

The inexperience in Kansas City's secondary could be the big difference here when the Bengals have the ball. As impressive as the Chiefs' youth has been, I think they are going to really struggle to contain Chase/Higgins/Boyd trio in this game. If Burrow is able to get enough time -- which doesn't require much given how quickly he releases the ball -- then there's no reason to think these Bengal receivers won't create separation. Barring an off day from Burrow or some unusual mistakes/inordinate amounts of pressure, then I think Cincinnati will score enough to win this game.

On the flip side, it's quite simple: Mahomes' health. If the reports are accurate and Mahomes has a high ankle sprain, he will not be the MVP-level quarterback we are accustomed to. Drugs and tape will not bring him back to that level. It's not that Mahomes can't be effective, but it makes the defensive game plan for the Bengals a lot simpler. If they can win some battles on the defensive line, which I believe they can, they really just have to double Kelce and that should be effective enough. The Chiefs will need to really run the ball effectively, and I don't think that plays into Bengals strengths.

It wouldn't shock me at all if the Chiefs won this game, but I think with the price and just the health of Mahomes, Bengals ML is the play here.


Good luck everyone

 

[Tanko]

If Chiefs hit +3.5, you'll see me middling.
I'm on the Bengals at +1.5 already.

Thanks again. Another insightful write-up.

 

[stormtrooper8]

If Chiefs hit +3.5, you'll see me middling.
I'm on the Bengals at +1.5 already.

Thanks again. Another insightful write-up.

Like that strategy

 

[Wagerallsports]

Think I'm teasing KC up to +8.5 and the total down to 39.5

We can both still win lol

 

[edawg]

If Chiefs hit +3.5, you'll see me middling.
I'm on the Bengals at +1.5 already.

Thanks again. Another insightful write-up.

Won't hit 3 unless Henne is the starter. If it went to 3 or 3.5 just be happy about getting the Bengals at plus points or money.

 

[Tanko]

Won't hit 3 unless Henne is the starter. If it went to 3 or 3.5 just be happy about getting the Bengals at plus points or money.

Probably won't. It reached 2.5 this afternoon at a number of books then dropped back to 2.

Oh well, we can alwys dream.

 

[stormtrooper8]

0-2 -2.00 Championship Round

49-47-1 +2.70 overall

No regrets

 

[stormtrooper8]

No action for the Super Bowl today. Taking a knee for a mediocre, but somehow profitable season. Futures were the cash cows for me this year.

Rooting for the Eagles, but leaning Chiefs if gun to my head

I think Eagles winning time of possession -140 could be a good value bet

Final season record: 49-47-1 +2.70

 

[Tanko]

No action for the Super Bowl today. Taking a knee for a mediocre, but somehow profitable season. Futures were the cash cows for me this year.

Rooting for the Eagles, but leaning Chiefs if gun to my head

I think Eagles winning time of possession -140 could be a good value bet

Final season record: 49-47-1 +2.70

Nice job ST. Ending + money always feels good.
Appreaciate all the NFL plays and insight.
Top notch.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Nice job ST. Ending + money always feels good.
Appreaciate all the NFL plays and insight.
Top notch.

Appreciate it

Next year will be better

You and I should do a podcast for each week lol