NFL Week 11 Picks: Bets We’ve Already Made on Browns vs Bills, Cowboys vs Vikings, More

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Bears​

vs.​

Falcons​

Cody Goggin: Over the last month Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears have been red hot. This hasn’t reflected in the win column over the last few weeks, but the Bears’ offense has figured some things out. On Sunday they gained this unfortunate distinction.
Since Week 6, Chicago is ninth in the league in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play on offense and fourth in EPA per rush. The Bears have designed this offense around Fields and the threat he can be on the ground. By having these designed rushes as an option and Fields being capable of snapping off big plays, it has opened up things for Chicago in the passing game as well, as evidenced by Cole Kmet’s long touchdown catch this past weekend.

In his short time in the NFL, Fields’ biggest struggle has been passing under pressure. Luckily for him, Atlanta has the 31st best pass rushing grade in the league per PFF. Atlanta’s average run defense

The Falcons’ defense ranks 32nd in success rate and 28th in EPA per play this season. They have been one of the worst defenses in the league against both the run and the pass. Atlanta ranks 29th in rushing defense success rate and 30th in passing success rate.

With the way Chicago’s offense has been playing over the last few weeks, they should be able to score at will against this Atlanta team. The Falcons’ offense has been spotty and likely won’t be able to keep up with the Bears in the same way that their last few opponents have been.

I would only play this at Bears +3 and no lower.

Pick: Bears +3.5 | Play to Bears +3

 

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Cowboys​

vs.​

Vikings​

Anthony Dabbundo: Minnesota is inflated in the market after its remarkable comeback victory in Buffalo on Sunday.

The Vikings had less than a 2% chance to win their game on Sunday when trailing 27-10 late in the third quarter. You can and should credit Minnesota for finding ways to win all of these close games this season, but it’s not a sustainable way of continuing this elite play. The secondary remains extremely vulnerable, the Vikings have a negative net yards per play differential and now it plays Dallas’ elite pass rush.

When Kirk Cousins has time in the pocket, he’s one of the better quarterbacks in the league. But when he’s under pressure, his numbers drop off considerably and his turnover worthy play rate skyrockets. Cousins is sure to be under pressure often in this game facing a Dallas defensive line that is top five in pressure rate.

The Vikings defense will have major problems stopping the Cowboys offense, which has been elite since Dak Prescott returned from injury. The Cowboys lost in Green Bay, but the offense had no issues moving the ball up and down the field on a Packers defense that grades out better than Minnesota’s this season. The Vikings haven’t played great QBs all year — a handful of backups included — and the secondary is bottom seven in passing success rate allowed.

Dallas should win this game in a prime sell-high spot on the Vikings. I’d bet Dallas at -130 or better.

Pick: Cowboys Moneyline​

 

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49ers​

vs.​

Cardinals​

Dylan Wilkerson: The Cardinals go from one divisional game to the next, this time taking on the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.

This game opened at 49ers -7 before San Francisco’s win over the Chargers on Sunday night. After that game, bettors looking to take the Cardinals got the hook.

The Cardinals took care of the Rams without starting QB Kyler Murray, who was out with a hamstring injury. In the case that he is ready to go for this matchup, we could see this line move within a touchdown.

It’s also worth noting that although the 49ers boast some great defensive numbers, the offenses they have played haven’t been elite. When they faced a competent offense in the Chiefs, they allowed 44 points.

If you like the Cardinals here, I would jump on it now as opposed to waiting until later in the week when positive news about Murray may come out.

Pick: Cardinals +7.5