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NCAA Basketball Pick for Wednesday: Horned Frogs to Gore Cowboys in Big 12
We improved to 47-41-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after our NCAA Basketball winner on Tuesday with Oklahoma State. We are sticking with the Big 12 Tournament Wednesday in another game involving the Cowboys when they face TCU on ESPNU.
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Wednesday, March 11th – 9:30pm ET
After winning our play on Oklahoma State last night, we are playing another game involving the Cowboys on Wednesday. However, this time we are fading them and laying the points with favored TCU in the Big 12 Tournament from Kansas City.
Strong Finish for TCU
The Horned Frogs may be peaking at the perfect time as they ended the season with five straight wins to finish with a 21-10 record including 11-7 inside the Big 12, and they are ranked 44th overall on Kenpom. Moreover, earning the 6th seed earned TCU a first round bye after ending the season on Saturday, giving them a nice rest advantage against an Oklahoma State team that won last night.
The Frogs are above average in offensive efficiency at 114.8 (national average 109.7), but their biggest strength is their defense. They are ranked 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and 21st in turnover percentage forced, and they were third in the latter during conference play. Thus, unlike Colorado last night, TCU is more than capable of disrupting the fast-paced Cowboys’ offense.
In fact, the second fewest points Oklahoma State scored in any game all year was the 65 they put up at TCU on January 20th, with only the great Arizona defense holding OSU to less.
Fatigue and Facing Good Defense Fatal for OSU
As we anticipated, the 14th seeded Cowboys were easily able to force the tempo against a Buffaloes defense that generally offers no resistance last night. The end-result was a 92-83 win in a 73-possession game that lines up with Oklahoma State’s ninth ranked Tempo Rating of 72.2. That win improved their record to 19-13 overall, with their 65th ranking on Kenpom being 21 spots lower than TCU.
However, while we thought the frenetic pace helped them last night, we think that it is a detriment tonight as playing back-to-back nights should theoretically affect the Cowboys more than normal-paced teams. And that is not to mention going from facing a Colorado team ranked 122nd in defensive efficiency and 259th in turnover percentage forced to facing a TCU team that excels in both those areas tonight.
In the end, we see Oklahoma State getting more fatigued as this game goes on while playing a second straight night and facing a team that applies pressure. Thus, bet on TCU as favorites on Wednesday.
THE PICK
TCU -5 -108 at Heritage
We improved to 47-41-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after our NCAA Basketball winner on Tuesday with Oklahoma State. We are sticking with the Big 12 Tournament Wednesday in another game involving the Cowboys when they face TCU on ESPNU.
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Wednesday, March 11th – 9:30pm ET
After winning our play on Oklahoma State last night, we are playing another game involving the Cowboys on Wednesday. However, this time we are fading them and laying the points with favored TCU in the Big 12 Tournament from Kansas City.
Strong Finish for TCU
The Horned Frogs may be peaking at the perfect time as they ended the season with five straight wins to finish with a 21-10 record including 11-7 inside the Big 12, and they are ranked 44th overall on Kenpom. Moreover, earning the 6th seed earned TCU a first round bye after ending the season on Saturday, giving them a nice rest advantage against an Oklahoma State team that won last night.
The Frogs are above average in offensive efficiency at 114.8 (national average 109.7), but their biggest strength is their defense. They are ranked 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and 21st in turnover percentage forced, and they were third in the latter during conference play. Thus, unlike Colorado last night, TCU is more than capable of disrupting the fast-paced Cowboys’ offense.
In fact, the second fewest points Oklahoma State scored in any game all year was the 65 they put up at TCU on January 20th, with only the great Arizona defense holding OSU to less.
Fatigue and Facing Good Defense Fatal for OSU
As we anticipated, the 14th seeded Cowboys were easily able to force the tempo against a Buffaloes defense that generally offers no resistance last night. The end-result was a 92-83 win in a 73-possession game that lines up with Oklahoma State’s ninth ranked Tempo Rating of 72.2. That win improved their record to 19-13 overall, with their 65th ranking on Kenpom being 21 spots lower than TCU.
However, while we thought the frenetic pace helped them last night, we think that it is a detriment tonight as playing back-to-back nights should theoretically affect the Cowboys more than normal-paced teams. And that is not to mention going from facing a Colorado team ranked 122nd in defensive efficiency and 259th in turnover percentage forced to facing a TCU team that excels in both those areas tonight.
In the end, we see Oklahoma State getting more fatigued as this game goes on while playing a second straight night and facing a team that applies pressure. Thus, bet on TCU as favorites on Wednesday.
THE PICK
TCU -5 -108 at Heritage
