NCAA Men's Bubble Watch 2024

[Wagerallsports]

Bubble Watch 2024: Brace yourself for NCAA tournament drama​

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Teams from traditional one-bid conferences: 22
Locks: 29 teams
The bubble: 32 teams for 17 available spots
Should be in: 10 teams
Work to do: 22 teams

 

[Wagerallsports]

ACC​

Locks​

North Carolina Tar Heels, Duke Blue Devils, Clemson Tigers

Work to do​

Virginia Cavaliers
What do you do with Virginia's profile if you're the committee? On the one hand, this is a 21-9 team that's 12-7 in the ACC with a win at Clemson. On the other hand, the Cavaliers often give the appearance of having ground to a halt. Tony Bennett's team has scored a total of 133 points across its three most recent losses before and now after a win at Boston College. Virginia is capable of making opposing defenses look like Houston or Iowa State. What do you do with this profile? Mock brackets say the Hoos are one of the last four to six teams in the field. (updated March 2)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Back-to-back road losses at Notre Dame and Virginia Tech are sending Wake Forest right back down to the projected cut line. It was only a week ago that the Demon Deacons thought they'd seen the last of this section of the bracket. The win at home over Duke was supposed to make the difference. It was the proverbial big win. But going 0-2 on the ensuing road trip against non-tournament-track opponents wasn't part of the plan, and now Wake's at-large chances are in jeopardy. Even including the victory over the Blue Devils, the Deacons' last three opponents connected on 61% of their 2s. (updated March 2)

Pittsburgh Panthers
While Pitt winning its next two games is by no means a foregone conclusion, Jeff Capel's team will be favored to do so at home against Florida State and NC State. If that happens, the Panthers would finish 12-8 in the ACC and indeed would have compiled a 26-14 record in conference play over the past two seasons. That's a really good record in a storied league, yet somehow Pitt has been seen as a longshot to make the tournament for more or less the entirety of those two seasons. After reaching the round of 32 as a No. 11 seed last season, the Panthers are trying to make the leap from "next four out" territory to two bids in a row. (updated March 2)

Syracuse Orange
Adrian Autry's team has won four straight, and over that stretch, the Orange's NET ranking has risen six spots. It's important to emphasize big-picture trends with Syracuse because the NET ranking actually went down two spots after a six-point win at Louisville. The news is better, however, on the side of the ledger with the résumé metrics. From that perspective, four wins lifted Cuse 13 spots in strength of record. Put it all together and you have a 20-10 team worthy of discussion and facing a critical road game at Clemson. Welcome to the fun, Orange. (updated March 3)

 

[Wagerallsports]

BIG 12​

Locks​

Houston Cougars, Kansas Jayhawks, Iowa State Cyclones, Baylor Bears, BYU Cougars, Texas Tech Red Raiders, TCU Horned Frogs

Should be in​

Oklahoma Sooners
Projected No. 8 seed Oklahoma gave Houston everything the Cougars could handle for 40 minutes before falling short in Norman 87-85. If the Sooners do wear home uniforms in the round of 64, it may be due to excellent work done in a small number of vital wins. An eight-point victory at home over Iowa State in OU's first Big 12 game of the season was particularly significant. The win over the Cyclones and one by 16 at home over BYU mark the two instances when Oklahoma defeated conference rivals likely to make the tournament. Then again, the Sooners can add to that total in the season finale at Texas, which follows a home date against Cincinnati. (updated March 2)

Texas Longhorns
Max Abmas drained his 500th career 3-pointer in UT's 16-point win at home over Oklahoma State. Naturally, the membership in this particular 500 club skews heavily toward the 2020s thanks to expanded career lengths. Antoine Davis set the record of 588 between 2018 and 2023. Still, Abmas might respond that he's at least shooting from behind a tougher 3-point line than the one that, for instance, JJ Redick had for his 457 career 3s. Accuracy from behind the current 3-point line has been a bright spot for a Texas offense that operates at the Big 12 average in other facets of the game. The Longhorns appear on course to earn a No. 8 seed. (updated March 2)

Work to do​

Kansas State Wildcats
Losing on the road in the Big 12 comes with the territory, but falling short by two points at Cincinnati is a tough pill for Kansas State to swallow. The Wildcats had a one-point lead in the last minute, and a win would have bolstered the case for a K-State team that was already making some "next four out" lists. Instead, Jerome Tang's group is 17-12 and facing a trip to Kansas followed by a home date against Iowa State. (updated March 2)

Cincinnati Bearcats
Thanks to Simas Lukosius, Cincinnati's tournament dreams are still alive. Well, barely alive. Bubble Watch doesn't wish to understate the obstacles between the Bearcats and an at-large bid. UC is 17-12 and 6-10 in the Big 12. One thing Wes Miller's team already does have, however, is a decent NET ranking. The résumé metrics will receive a small but welcome nudge, as well, after Lukosius drained his 3 with 10 seconds remaining to give Cincinnati a two-point win at home over fellow bubble team Kansas State. (updated March 2)

 

[Wagerallsports]

BIG EAST​

Locks​

UConn Huskies, Marquette Golden Eagles, Creighton Bluejays

Work to do​

Villanova Wildcats
In most cases, a "First four out" team like Villanova winning a road game by 11 over a bubbly opponent like Providence would be viewed as pivotal -- if not decisive. It was indeed a highly significant win for the Wildcats, and the metrics will look terrific for Kyle Neptune's group coming off this victory. (The NET ranking already looked fine, and this will boost Nova's previously tepid résumé ratings.) The only thing: Villanova still has a road game at Seton Hall and a home date with Creighton. Even with the Wildcats playing their best ball of the season, two losses there are conceivable. One win, on the other hand, could be pivotal -- if not decisive. (updated March 2)

Seton Hall Pirates
After a 30-point loss at UConn, the Pirates find themselves in the same position as a healthy portion of the Big East. Shaheen Holloway's team is believed to be within four teams of the cut line either way. The winner of Seton Hall's upcoming home game against Villanova will likely arrive at the Big East tournament believing they are just barely in the projected field. For its part the losing team will assume it has a bit more work to do than that. The Pirates are the Big East's least perimeter-oriented team and also its most turnover-prone one not named DePaul. (updated March 3)

Providence Friars
Coming off a road game at Marquette, the Friars returned home just in time to catch Villanova in peak form. The result was two losses by a combined margin of 33 points for a team previously thought to possess one of the last spots in the projected field. Providence is now likely to hang around the cut line all the way to the Big East tournament, barring one of two outcomes. A loss at Georgetown will in all likelihood drop PC to "Next four out" status (at best). Then again, a win at home against UConn would pair nicely with the one Providence already has over the Golden Eagles and allow Friars fans to breathe easier. (updated March 2)

St. John's Red Storm
With road wins at Georgetown and Butler sandwiched on either side of a victory over Creighton at Madison Square Garden, St. John's has risen 24 spots in strength of record and 11 in the NET rankings. Mock brackets have reacted accordingly and suddenly you're looking at a "First four out" team. Not bad for a group that wasn't even accorded "Next four out" status at the beginning of the week. The Red Storm have momentum as they prepare to visit their fellow Vincentians at DePaul. (updated Feb. 29)

 

[Wagerallsports]

BIG TEN​

Locks​

Purdue Boilermakers, Wisconsin Badgers, Illinois Fighting Illini

Should be in​

Michigan State Spartans
The October 2023 version of the Bubble Watch staff wouldn't be the least bit surprised to learn that Michigan State played Purdue tough on the road before losing by six. We would not have expected, however, to find the Spartans doing so projected as a mere No. 9 seed. With veterans like Tyson Walker, Malik Hall, A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins back from a Sweet 16 run, Tom Izzo's group was ranked No. 4 by the AP in the preseason. To be sure, MSU still looks better in the NET rankings and at KenPom than it does in the mock brackets. Possibly there is another Izzo-variety run still to come. (updated March 2)

Northwestern Wildcats
Ryan Langborg missed a second consecutive game with an ankle injury and Ty Berry is already out for the season. A shorthanded Northwestern defense that's not forcing turnovers is not especially effective, and so the Wildcats fell at home to Iowa by seven. Chris Collins and his team will stay put here in "Should be in" waiting to be locked another few days at least as a projected No. 8 seed. (updated March 2)

Nebraska Cornhuskers
It's now been almost a month since Nebraska faced an opponent that's likely to make the NCAA tournament. Over the ensuing weeks the Cornhuskers have done precisely what they needed to do. They have taken care of business. Fred Hoiberg's group has gone 5-1 during this stretch, with the only loss coming on the road to an Ohio State team that's on a run of its own. Projected No. 9 seed Nebraska will now finish its season at Michigan. (updated March 3)

Work to do​

Iowa Hawkeyes
Every "Work to do" team should take a page from Iowa's book. The Hawkeyes have won four of five, including road wins at Michigan State and Northwestern. Fran McCaffery's group entered the game against the Wildcats being shown well outside the projected field, but winning 87-80 in Evanston will push them up to or very near "first four out" status. While Iowa has been lighting up the scoreboard during this five-game run (1.21 points per possession), keep in mind the new look in Iowa City is interior-oriented. The Hawkeyes are carving up opponents inside the arc -- while also making their rare 3-point attempts. (updated March 2)

 

[Wagerallsports]

PAC-12​

Locks​

Arizona Wildcats, Washington State Cougars

Work to do​

Colorado Buffaloes
Mock brackets show 20-9 Colorado as one of the first four teams outside the field. A victory at Oregon would help the bubbly Buffaloes where they need it most, in their résumé metrics. To this point in the season, wins at home over Washington State and Utah and one on the road at Washington have headlined CU's profile. Defeating the Ducks in Eugene would move to the head of that list. Tad Boyle's team thrives on getting to the line, with KJ Simpson setting that standard for the Buffs. (updated March 3)

Utah Utes
Give Utah credit. After falling from "Should be in" all the way down to "first four out," the Utes did what they had to do and took care of business at home. Wins in Salt Lake City over Stanford and Cal by a combined margin of 51 points halted the slide in the mock brackets and even boosted the NET ranking for Craig Smith's group by seven spots. At 18-11, Utah has won three of four and is seen as right on the cut line as it embarks on a season-ending road trip to Oregon State and Oregon. (updated March 3)

 

[carolinakid]

wake is a 100% go against

 

[Wagerallsports]

SEC​

Locks​

Tennessee Volunteers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Auburn Tigers, South Carolina Gamecocks, Kentucky Wildcats, Florida Gators

Should be in​

Mississippi State Bulldogs
For proof that SEC men's basketball is as strong as it has been in a long while, look no further than the fact that a team as good as Mississippi State is 8-8 in conference play. The Bulldogs carried an impressive top-30 rank at KenPom and a virtually identical look in the NET rankings on the road this weekend. All those metrics got this team was a 15-point loss at Auburn. In a season when the SEC's hardly lacking for offense, it's MSU first-year star Josh Hubbard who leads the conference in made 3s on the season as a whole. The Bulldogs will look to improve their projected No. 8 seed on the road at Texas A&M before playing a final home date against South Carolina. (updated March 2)

Work to do​

Texas A&M Aggies
Facing the effective end of its tournament hopes (not to mention elimination from Bubble Watch), Texas A&M posted its most impressive performance in three weeks in a 70-56 victory at Georgia. True, the Aggies are still just 16-13 and 7-9 in the SEC. Still, their wins at home over Tennessee, Kentucky and Florida as well as a neutral-floor victory over Iowa State now at least have a chance to gain a hearing in the committee room. In the meantime, A&M can strengthen its profile still further with a good showing at home against Mississippi State. (updated March 2)

 

[Wagerallsports]

AMERICAN​

Should be in​

Florida Atlantic Owls
The Owls find themselves in the most tenuous portion of a safe Bubble Watch category. While still within the bounds of "Should be in," Florida Atlantic's bracket standing has dropped measurably since the loss at South Florida. Naturally, mock brackets aren't the committee. (Nor is Bubble Watch.) After all, a year ago at this time, FAU was significantly underrated by the mocks despite top-25 numbers for both the NET and strength of record. Now, however, Dusty May's group of 2023 Final Four veterans has slipped slightly (top-50) in both metrics. This year's projections of a No. 10 seed appear to match the Owls' level of performance. (updated March 2)

Work to do​

South Florida Bulls
At long last, South Florida has made it to Bubble Watch. All it took was 14 straight wins over a period spanning nearly two months. Now at 22-5, the Bulls have a track record that matches up quite well with those of other "Work to do" teams. Of course, Amir Abdur-Rahim's group has no time to rest on its laurels. (And there are laurels. South Florida has already clinched the outright regular-season American title.) Soon we may have opportunity to speculate on what the committee will do with such a singular profile. First, there's a home game against Tulane and a road date at Tulsa. (updated March 2)

Memphis Tigers
The Tigers are back in Bubble Watch after a wild 106-87 win at home over UAB. Penny Hardaway's team trailed by as many as 22 before outscoring the Blazers 60-26 in the second half. David Jones, Nae'Qwan Tomlin and Jahvon Quinerly combined for 85 points all by themselves. Memphis is 22-8 and about to visit Florida Atlantic in pursuit of a season sweep of the Owls. (updated March 3)

 

[Wagerallsports]

MOUNTAIN WEST​

Locks​

San Diego State Aztecs, Utah State Aggies

Should be in​

Boise State Broncos
Welcome to Bubble Watch's continuing "Boise State's offense is on a roll" coverage. We've been tracking this story from the beginning, as the Broncos have reeled off five straight wins. Over that span, Leon Rice's offense has rung up 1.31 points per possession. There must have been some meeting a few weeks ago where BSU, Kentucky and Illinois all decided to score many, many points. It's certainly working for the Broncos, who are now being shown in mock brackets as high as the No. 7 line. (updated March 2)

Colorado State Rams
Why is Colorado State still here and not a lock? Even with an eight-point win at home over Wyoming newly added to the profile, the Rams have lost three of their last four. The CSU offense is underperforming. Over the last four outings, Colorado State has connected on just 28% of its 3s. This stretch has coincided with the Rams dropping from a projected No. 6 seed to a spot on the No. 8 line. If there's any good news for Niko Medved it's that this condition may be temporary. (updated March 2)

Nevada Wolf Pack
Dating back to his days as head coach at Iowa, Steve Alford has often favored a style on offense that generates a high number of free throw attempts. This season, Nevada's Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas have combined for over 300 tries from the line as they each draw more than five fouls per 40 minutes. (For his part, Lucas is a 90% shooter at the line.) Earning 30 free throw attempts in a 64-possession game at Colorado State, for example, helped Nevada post a key road win. At 24-6, the Wolf Pack appear to be on track for a No. 9 or No. 10 seed. (updated March 2)

Work to do​

New Mexico Lobos
Few Bubble Watch teams have seen their fortunes turn as quickly as New Mexico. Seven days ago the Lobos took the floor as a projected No. 9 seed. Then Richard Pitino's team lost by one at home to Air Force, watched their stock drop in the mock brackets for an entire week and returned to action with a 10-point loss on the road to surging Boise State. All the while, UNM's NET ranking has held up surprisingly well, which is more than can be said for the Lobos' résumé metrics. Now on the "last four in" list, New Mexico will host Fresno State and close the season at Utah State. (updated March 2)

 

[Wagerallsports]

OTHERS​

Locks​

Dayton Flyers, Saint Mary's Gaels, Gonzaga Bulldogs

Work to do​

James Madison Dukes
Stringing together an uninterrupted series of wins described as "Quad 3" or "Quad 4" isn't the quickest way to improve a profile. But when it's your only option, it can actually work. Look at James Madison. Since losing at Appalachian State a month ago, the Dukes have won 10 straight. Three of those wins were Quad 3, and the rest were Quad 4. Over that month, JMU's NET ranking has risen 14 spots to near-top-50 status. Plus, of course, there was the opening night overtime win at Michigan State back in November. The Dukes are 28-3 and will face either Georgia State or Marshall in the Sun Belt quarterfinals. (updated March 2)

Princeton Tigers
The safest path to the field of 68 for any member of a league that's 0-for-forever on at-large bids is to qualify automatically. At 21-3, Princeton's chances of winning the Ivy's automatic bid are significantly greater than the probability of the Tigers earning an at-large invite. Still, in an effort to reach for that second lifeline in case it becomes necessary, Princeton might wish to climb even a little higher in the NET rankings and finish in the 40s. (After winning eight straight, Mitch Henderson's team is almost there.) That, plus the committee's memory of Princeton's 2023 Sweet 16 run and, ideally, a collapse among some bubble rivals, could at least give the Tigers a shot. (updated March 2)

Indiana State Sycamores
Indiana State was locked in a battle for conference supremacy with Drake for much of the Missouri Valley season. Now that the Sycamores have won the regular-season title outright, however, mock brackets are showing ISU as the Valley's presumptive automatic qualifier. The No. 11 seed the mocks are putting next to Josh Schertz's group is itself a strong signal. That seed suggests the mocks give credence to the top-40 rankings in both the NET and strength of record for 25-5 Indiana State. The committee possibly will do the same if the question is raised. (updated March 3)

Drake Bulldogs
Drake dropped out of Bubble Watch after a 14-point loss at Northern Iowa took a bite out of the Bulldogs' numbers. Those numbers still haven't returned to their former level, but what shifted slightly in the meantime was the shape of the bubble itself. Every opportunity not seized by potential rivals like Oregon or Xavier creates openings for other teams. There's room now for a 25-6 Drake team that will enter March Madness as the Valley's No. 2 seed. (updated March 3)

McNeese Cowboys
Go ahead, doubt the likelihood of the committee expending a precious at-large bid on a Will Wade-coached team that has played four non-Division I opponents. Your doubts might well turn out to be correct. Be that as it may, Bubble Watch is duty bound to point out that McNeese is right there in terms of team-sheet quality with a Utah or an Iowa. At 25-3, the Cowboys possess road wins at VCU, Michigan and UAB. While McNeese will be a heavy favorite in the Southland tournament, we all understand that March is March. If the question of at-large worthiness should arise, the Cowboys do merit a look. (updated March 2)

 

[JDS]

Thanks for posting as this is not free content

 

[champ2399]

Both St. John's and New Mexico on the bubble -
how about Pitino vs. Pitino in a Dayton First Four game for a bid into the Round of 64?

 

[rdalert447]

BIG 12​

Locks​

Houston Cougars, Kansas Jayhawks, Iowa State Cyclones, Baylor Bears, BYU Cougars, Texas Tech Red Raiders, TCU Horned Frogs

Should be in​

Oklahoma Sooners
Projected No. 8 seed Oklahoma gave Houston everything the Cougars could handle for 40 minutes before falling short in Norman 87-85. If the Sooners do wear home uniforms in the round of 64, it may be due to excellent work done in a small number of vital wins. An eight-point victory at home over Iowa State in OU's first Big 12 game of the season was particularly significant. The win over the Cyclones and one by 16 at home over BYU mark the two instances when Oklahoma defeated conference rivals likely to make the tournament. Then again, the Sooners can add to that total in the season finale at Texas, which follows a home date against Cincinnati. (updated March 2)

Texas Longhorns
Max Abmas drained his 500th career 3-pointer in UT's 16-point win at home over Oklahoma State. Naturally, the membership in this particular 500 club skews heavily toward the 2020s thanks to expanded career lengths. Antoine Davis set the record of 588 between 2018 and 2023. Still, Abmas might respond that he's at least shooting from behind a tougher 3-point line than the one that, for instance, JJ Redick had for his 457 career 3s. Accuracy from behind the current 3-point line has been a bright spot for a Texas offense that operates at the Big 12 average in other facets of the game. The Longhorns appear on course to earn a No. 8 seed. (updated March 2)

Work to do​

Kansas State Wildcats
Losing on the road in the Big 12 comes with the territory, but falling short by two points at Cincinnati is a tough pill for Kansas State to swallow. The Wildcats had a one-point lead in the last minute, and a win would have bolstered the case for a K-State team that was already making some "next four out" lists. Instead, Jerome Tang's group is 17-12 and facing a trip to Kansas followed by a home date against Iowa State. (updated March 2)

Cincinnati Bearcats
Thanks to Simas Lukosius, Cincinnati's tournament dreams are still alive. Well, barely alive. Bubble Watch doesn't wish to understate the obstacles between the Bearcats and an at-large bid. UC is 17-12 and 6-10 in the Big 12. One thing Wes Miller's team already does have, however, is a decent NET ranking. The résumé metrics will receive a small but welcome nudge, as well, after Lukosius drained his 3 with 10 seconds remaining to give Cincinnati a two-point win at home over fellow bubble team Kansas State. (updated March 2)

Forgot one team……

 

[rdalert447]

If FAU is a lock, USF should be as well.

 

[JDS]

Forgot one team……

They need to beat Houston & TCU also need at least another 3 wins in conference tourney play in order to get a flyer on the Big Dance as a at large bid to my estimation.

 

[rdalert447]

They need to beat Houston & TCU also need at least another 3 wins in conference tourney play in order to get a flyer on the Big Dance as a at large bid to my estimation.

Can’t disagree. Missed a golden opportunity when they couldn’t score the last 3 mins vs Iowa St.

 

[fiftycint]

Mountain west will get 6.The committee will do anything to get Pitino vs. Pitino

 

[charliebrown]

Mountain west will get 6.The committee will do anything to get Pitino vs. Pitino

Mt West getting 6

Seems like they have lots of ones and done