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MLB Pick for Wednesday: Betting the Total in Skenes vs. Arrighetti
We fell back to 11-12 with our MLB write-ups as our 4-game winning streak was snapped on Tuesday, and we also dropped to +17.37 overall in our MLB Picks thread after a woeful day. We look to bounce back on Wednesday with a play on the Pirates vs. Astros matchup in Houston.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, June 3rd – 8:10pm ET
The Pirates and Astros continue their 3-game series in Houston on Wednesday after Pittsburgh took the series opener in a 10-6 slugfest last night.
This contest pits defending Cy Young winner Paul Skenes for the Pirates against Spencer Arrighetti and his 1.34 ERA for the Astros. However, we are not a believer in the latter, and we see Pittsburgh scoring enough runs to push this game Over this posted total in Dalkin Park.
Arrighetti’s Luck to Run Out?
Arrighetti enters with a spiffy 7-1 record to go along with the great ERA, although we are talking about a sample size of only 47 innings. More importantly, his peripherals do not support the 1.34 ERA that is second best in the Major Leagues among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched behind only Shohei Ohtani.
For starters, consider that his xFIP is incredibly close to four runs higher than his ERA at 4.98! Yes, his K-Rate is good at 8.23/9, but the same cannot be said for his horrific walk rate of 4.98/9. He has a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 13.7% / 32.2%, and much of the hard contact has been in the air with his groundball rate at only 35.8%.
So how has Spencer gotten around the hard air contact with all the traffic on the bases due to the high walk rate? Well, he has been extremely lucky with an incredibly low .210 BABIP allowed, and that luck also extends to his 89.3% strand rate! That kind of luck is unsustainable, so we see the ERA skyrocketing toward the nearly 5.00 xFIP once the luck normalizes.
He now faces a Pittsburgh offense that is surprisingly fourth in the majors on wRC+ against right-handers at 114, and he cannot count on much support from a Houston bullpen ranked dead last in the league in ERA at 5.22 and second to last in xFIP at 4.86. That combination has us thinking the Pirates can score at least five runs in this game.
Skenes May Not Need to Allow Much
Now, it goes without saying that Skenes is still one of the best pitchers in baseball and he is much better than his 6-5 record, given the 2.89 ERA, 2.97 xFIP and great K/BB ratio of 10.33/1.65 per nine innings. But this play has more to do with fading Arrighetti, and if we are correct about the Pirates scoring at least five runs, then Houston would only need three for this game to go Over.
Well, as great as Skenes is, he is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA over his last three starts while not exceeding 5.1 innings in any of those outings. We get that that will obviously not continue, but it is not beyond reason to expect Paul to allow two runs while he is in there. And once he departs, while the Pittsburgh bullpen is not as bad as Houston’s, it is still a shaky 19th in xFIP at 4.33.
Also, there is also the chance that the Pirates may approach or pass this total themselves if Arrighetti immediately starts pitching to his xFIP.
While is may be risky to bet on an Over with Skenes starting, we are doing just that considering his recent shakiness, but more so due to Arrighetti’s expected regression facing and underrated offense vs. righties and two suspect bullpens.
THE PICK
Over 7.5 -113 at Heritage
We fell back to 11-12 with our MLB write-ups as our 4-game winning streak was snapped on Tuesday, and we also dropped to +17.37 overall in our MLB Picks thread after a woeful day. We look to bounce back on Wednesday with a play on the Pirates vs. Astros matchup in Houston.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, June 3rd – 8:10pm ET
The Pirates and Astros continue their 3-game series in Houston on Wednesday after Pittsburgh took the series opener in a 10-6 slugfest last night.
This contest pits defending Cy Young winner Paul Skenes for the Pirates against Spencer Arrighetti and his 1.34 ERA for the Astros. However, we are not a believer in the latter, and we see Pittsburgh scoring enough runs to push this game Over this posted total in Dalkin Park.
Arrighetti’s Luck to Run Out?
Arrighetti enters with a spiffy 7-1 record to go along with the great ERA, although we are talking about a sample size of only 47 innings. More importantly, his peripherals do not support the 1.34 ERA that is second best in the Major Leagues among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched behind only Shohei Ohtani.
For starters, consider that his xFIP is incredibly close to four runs higher than his ERA at 4.98! Yes, his K-Rate is good at 8.23/9, but the same cannot be said for his horrific walk rate of 4.98/9. He has a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 13.7% / 32.2%, and much of the hard contact has been in the air with his groundball rate at only 35.8%.
So how has Spencer gotten around the hard air contact with all the traffic on the bases due to the high walk rate? Well, he has been extremely lucky with an incredibly low .210 BABIP allowed, and that luck also extends to his 89.3% strand rate! That kind of luck is unsustainable, so we see the ERA skyrocketing toward the nearly 5.00 xFIP once the luck normalizes.
He now faces a Pittsburgh offense that is surprisingly fourth in the majors on wRC+ against right-handers at 114, and he cannot count on much support from a Houston bullpen ranked dead last in the league in ERA at 5.22 and second to last in xFIP at 4.86. That combination has us thinking the Pirates can score at least five runs in this game.
Skenes May Not Need to Allow Much
Now, it goes without saying that Skenes is still one of the best pitchers in baseball and he is much better than his 6-5 record, given the 2.89 ERA, 2.97 xFIP and great K/BB ratio of 10.33/1.65 per nine innings. But this play has more to do with fading Arrighetti, and if we are correct about the Pirates scoring at least five runs, then Houston would only need three for this game to go Over.
Well, as great as Skenes is, he is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA over his last three starts while not exceeding 5.1 innings in any of those outings. We get that that will obviously not continue, but it is not beyond reason to expect Paul to allow two runs while he is in there. And once he departs, while the Pittsburgh bullpen is not as bad as Houston’s, it is still a shaky 19th in xFIP at 4.33.
Also, there is also the chance that the Pirates may approach or pass this total themselves if Arrighetti immediately starts pitching to his xFIP.
While is may be risky to bet on an Over with Skenes starting, we are doing just that considering his recent shakiness, but more so due to Arrighetti’s expected regression facing and underrated offense vs. righties and two suspect bullpens.
THE PICK
Over 7.5 -113 at Heritage
