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MLB Pick for Wednesday: Nelson to Lasso Rocker and Rangers in Texas
We fell to 6-8 with our MLB write-ups with a loss on Tuesday, although we are still +27.32 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We look to bounce back Wednesday with a play in the Diamondbacks vs. Rangers matchup in Arlington.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, May 13th – 8:05pm ET
We see a pitching matchup on Wednesday between two pitchers with modest frontline stats where one pitcher is probably better than his numbers and the other basically lines up with them. Therefore, we are supporting Ryne Nelson and the Diamondbacks at an underdog price when visiting Kumar Rocker and the Rangers at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX.
“Good” Nelson to Show Up
Nelson comes in at 1-3 with an unsightly 5.68 ERA and 4.75 xFIP through eight starts covering 38 innings, but it is his game log that has us intrigued. You see, he has had two awful starts which came in consecutive outings three and four starts back. First, he was charged with eight earned runs while recording just one out vs. Toronto, which will skew any ERA with less than 40 innings pitched, and he then allowed six earned runs in five innings in his next start.
What piques our interest though is what he has done in his other six outings. Granted, he had a mediocre season debut allowing four runs (but only two hits) in 4.2 innings. But he followed that up by allowing two earned runs in his second start, and he has since allowed exactly one earned run in each of his four starts sandwiched around the two stinkers! That obviously includes his last two starts, over which he has allowed only six hits with 11 strikeouts in 12.1 innings.
More good news is that Ryne’s fastball velocity currently sits at a career high 96.2 MPH and his second most frequent pitch, the slider, rates 110 on Stuff+, one tick higher than the fastball at 109. In fact, his overall +Stats (105 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 108 Pitching+) all belie the ERA and xFIP.
Nelson also benefits by facing a Texas offense with severe home/away splits while being at their worst here in their home stadium. The Rangers rank 28th in the majors in home wRC+ at a mere 79 (or 21% below average), compared to ranking sixth in road wRC+ at 107.
Not Great Stuff for Rocker
Rocker comes in at 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 4.31 xFIP, and unlike Nelson, those numbers appear to be what you would expect given his underlying metrics. He has a soft K/BB ratio of 7.52/3.62 per nine innings, with walks being a big issue for Kumar since joining the Major Leagues. In fact, he is showing no signs of improvement with the current walk rate up from 3.22/9 last season.
Yes, a case can be made that he has been unlucky with a .320 BABIP, but even putting that aside, his fastball velocity is down to 94.4 MPH from 95.8 MPH last year and his swinging strike rate is down a full 1% (10.3% from 11.3%). And that is not to mention how much his +Stats pale compared to Nelson, with an overall Stuff+ of 92 (80 for the fastball), Location+ of 97 and Pitching+ of 92.
In the end, we think that Nelson’s very good starts this season are closer to his true form than the two abysmal ones skewing his overall numbers, while Rocker appears to be what the frontline numbers say he is. Add the underdog price and bet on the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.
THE PICK
Diamondbacks +106 at Heritage
We fell to 6-8 with our MLB write-ups with a loss on Tuesday, although we are still +27.32 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We look to bounce back Wednesday with a play in the Diamondbacks vs. Rangers matchup in Arlington.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, May 13th – 8:05pm ET
We see a pitching matchup on Wednesday between two pitchers with modest frontline stats where one pitcher is probably better than his numbers and the other basically lines up with them. Therefore, we are supporting Ryne Nelson and the Diamondbacks at an underdog price when visiting Kumar Rocker and the Rangers at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX.
“Good” Nelson to Show Up
Nelson comes in at 1-3 with an unsightly 5.68 ERA and 4.75 xFIP through eight starts covering 38 innings, but it is his game log that has us intrigued. You see, he has had two awful starts which came in consecutive outings three and four starts back. First, he was charged with eight earned runs while recording just one out vs. Toronto, which will skew any ERA with less than 40 innings pitched, and he then allowed six earned runs in five innings in his next start.
What piques our interest though is what he has done in his other six outings. Granted, he had a mediocre season debut allowing four runs (but only two hits) in 4.2 innings. But he followed that up by allowing two earned runs in his second start, and he has since allowed exactly one earned run in each of his four starts sandwiched around the two stinkers! That obviously includes his last two starts, over which he has allowed only six hits with 11 strikeouts in 12.1 innings.
More good news is that Ryne’s fastball velocity currently sits at a career high 96.2 MPH and his second most frequent pitch, the slider, rates 110 on Stuff+, one tick higher than the fastball at 109. In fact, his overall +Stats (105 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 108 Pitching+) all belie the ERA and xFIP.
Nelson also benefits by facing a Texas offense with severe home/away splits while being at their worst here in their home stadium. The Rangers rank 28th in the majors in home wRC+ at a mere 79 (or 21% below average), compared to ranking sixth in road wRC+ at 107.
Not Great Stuff for Rocker
Rocker comes in at 1-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 4.31 xFIP, and unlike Nelson, those numbers appear to be what you would expect given his underlying metrics. He has a soft K/BB ratio of 7.52/3.62 per nine innings, with walks being a big issue for Kumar since joining the Major Leagues. In fact, he is showing no signs of improvement with the current walk rate up from 3.22/9 last season.
Yes, a case can be made that he has been unlucky with a .320 BABIP, but even putting that aside, his fastball velocity is down to 94.4 MPH from 95.8 MPH last year and his swinging strike rate is down a full 1% (10.3% from 11.3%). And that is not to mention how much his +Stats pale compared to Nelson, with an overall Stuff+ of 92 (80 for the fastball), Location+ of 97 and Pitching+ of 92.
In the end, we think that Nelson’s very good starts this season are closer to his true form than the two abysmal ones skewing his overall numbers, while Rocker appears to be what the frontline numbers say he is. Add the underdog price and bet on the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.
THE PICK
Diamondbacks +106 at Heritage
