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MLB Pick for Friday: Will Pitchers Step Up When Mariners visit Kansas City?
We fell to a disappointing 7-11 with our MLB write-ups with another loss Wednesday, although we are still +16.77 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We continue to look for convergence toward the overall Friday with a play in the Mariners vs. Royals matchup.
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Friday, May 22th – 7:40pm ET
The Mariners and the Royals open a holiday weekend series in Kansas City on Friday with two starting pitchers that each have an ERA that is undesirable.
Logan Gilbert is 2-4 with a 4.45 ERA for Seattle while Noah Cameron enters at 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA for KC. However, Gilbert has some nice peripherals that suggest imminent improvement while the southpaw Cameron is facing one of the worst offenses in baseball against lefties. Therefore, we are supporting the Under at Kauffman Stadium.
Gilbert Still Has Great Command Ratio
Gilbert has been disappointment so far this year, but this is still a guy with a career 3.63 ERA, 3.54 xFIP and a K/BB ratio of 9.49/1.95 per nine innings while now in his sixth Major League season. More importantly, his xFIP this year matches his career mark of 3.54, nearly a full run lower than his current ERA, and he has maintained his customarily great command ratio with the K/BB at 9.05/1.91!
He still has good pop on the fastball at 95.4 MPH while owning an enormous 7-pitch arsenal, with five of those pitches used at least 11.5% of the time. Furthermore, his swinging strike rate of 12.8% is basically in line with his career mark of 13.0%, and his +Stats totally belie the ERA with a Stuff+ of 107, Location+ also at 107 and an excellent Pitching+ of 113.
All this is to say that Logan is not much different from the pitcher he has always been, making him a prime candidate for positive regression the rest of the way. It also helps that he is backed by a Seattle bullpen ranked fourth in the majors in ERA at 3.10 and ninth in xFIP.
Mariners Struggling with Southpaws
Now, Cameron is by no means an All-Star or anything, but he is not as bad as his bloated ERA either with his xFIP also noticeably better, in fact by more than a run at 4.37. He has been very unlucky with a high .333 BABIP allowed and low 62.5% strand rate.
Granted, he will not blow anyone away with a 92.3 MPH fastball and a Stuff+ of 93, but he does grade out better than expected in Location+ (106) and Pitching+ (102). Even Noah’s K-Rate of 7.7/9 has room for improvement with a swinging strike rate of 10.1%.
But perhaps the biggest advantage for Cameron tonight is his opponent. That is because the Mariners have struggled mightily against left-handed pitchers, ranking 28th out of 30 teams against them in wRC+ at 77 and 29th in OPS at a light .597. And surprisingly for a team that plays its home game in the most pitcher-friendly park in the league, those figures against lefties have been worse in the road, with a wRC+ of 66 and an OPS of .571.
In the end, we see a return to normalcy for Gilbert given his strong metrics, and we feel Cameron is good enough to handle a weak lineup against southpaws. Bet on the Under on Friday.
THE PICK
Under 8 +102 at Bookmaker
We fell to a disappointing 7-11 with our MLB write-ups with another loss Wednesday, although we are still +16.77 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We continue to look for convergence toward the overall Friday with a play in the Mariners vs. Royals matchup.
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Friday, May 22th – 7:40pm ET
The Mariners and the Royals open a holiday weekend series in Kansas City on Friday with two starting pitchers that each have an ERA that is undesirable.
Logan Gilbert is 2-4 with a 4.45 ERA for Seattle while Noah Cameron enters at 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA for KC. However, Gilbert has some nice peripherals that suggest imminent improvement while the southpaw Cameron is facing one of the worst offenses in baseball against lefties. Therefore, we are supporting the Under at Kauffman Stadium.
Gilbert Still Has Great Command Ratio
Gilbert has been disappointment so far this year, but this is still a guy with a career 3.63 ERA, 3.54 xFIP and a K/BB ratio of 9.49/1.95 per nine innings while now in his sixth Major League season. More importantly, his xFIP this year matches his career mark of 3.54, nearly a full run lower than his current ERA, and he has maintained his customarily great command ratio with the K/BB at 9.05/1.91!
He still has good pop on the fastball at 95.4 MPH while owning an enormous 7-pitch arsenal, with five of those pitches used at least 11.5% of the time. Furthermore, his swinging strike rate of 12.8% is basically in line with his career mark of 13.0%, and his +Stats totally belie the ERA with a Stuff+ of 107, Location+ also at 107 and an excellent Pitching+ of 113.
All this is to say that Logan is not much different from the pitcher he has always been, making him a prime candidate for positive regression the rest of the way. It also helps that he is backed by a Seattle bullpen ranked fourth in the majors in ERA at 3.10 and ninth in xFIP.
Mariners Struggling with Southpaws
Now, Cameron is by no means an All-Star or anything, but he is not as bad as his bloated ERA either with his xFIP also noticeably better, in fact by more than a run at 4.37. He has been very unlucky with a high .333 BABIP allowed and low 62.5% strand rate.
Granted, he will not blow anyone away with a 92.3 MPH fastball and a Stuff+ of 93, but he does grade out better than expected in Location+ (106) and Pitching+ (102). Even Noah’s K-Rate of 7.7/9 has room for improvement with a swinging strike rate of 10.1%.
But perhaps the biggest advantage for Cameron tonight is his opponent. That is because the Mariners have struggled mightily against left-handed pitchers, ranking 28th out of 30 teams against them in wRC+ at 77 and 29th in OPS at a light .597. And surprisingly for a team that plays its home game in the most pitcher-friendly park in the league, those figures against lefties have been worse in the road, with a wRC+ of 66 and an OPS of .571.
In the end, we see a return to normalcy for Gilbert given his strong metrics, and we feel Cameron is good enough to handle a weak lineup against southpaws. Bet on the Under on Friday.
THE PICK
Under 8 +102 at Bookmaker
