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MLB Pick for Friday: Scant Scoring Expected in Seattle
We dropped to 6-9 with our MLB write-ups with an unlucky loss Wednesday with Arizona, although we are still +23.78 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We look to begin convergence toward that overall mark Friday with a play in the late Padres vs. Mariners matchup.
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, May 15th – 9:40pm ET
We have a matchup of two starting pitchers with very nice potential Friday throwing in perhaps the most pitching friendly environment in baseball. That has us supporting the Under when Emerson Hancock and the Mariners host Randy Vasquez and the Padres at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
New Pitch Mix Suiting Hancock Well
Hancock was mediocre at best over his first three MLB seasons, with a career best ERA of 4.50 and an xFIP best of 4.71. However, he has been a brand-new pitcher this season with an entirely new pitch mix, and the results have been excellent as he is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA and a matching 3.21 xFIP that is ranked a commendable 18th in the Major Leagues. He also has an excellent K/BB ratio of 9.44/1.70 per nine innings.
Emerson relied heavily on his sinker in past seasons, and it was his most frequently thrown pitch last year at 39.1%. However, he has cut back on that this season while turning to more power, as his 95.0 MPH fastball now leads his arsenal at 35.9% while his slider has taken over as his second most thrown pitch at 24.3%. That becomes very relevant when considering the latter has become one of the best sliders in baseball with an impressive Stuff+ rating of 122.
This new mix has resulted in career best +Stats across the board, with an overall Stuff+ of 103, Location+ of 108 and Pitching+ of 104. Further evidence that his improvement is “real” is a huge jump in his swinging strike rate to 11.3% after being in the single digits each of his first three years, and even his groundball rate is up a bit to 45.2% from 43.0% last year despite the diminished use of his sinker with the biting slider now inducing grounders.
Vasquez Peaking in 4th Season?
While Hancock’s improvement came virtually out of nowhere, Vasquez showed glimpses of greatness last year and he is really putting things together in his fourth Major League season. He comes in at 4-1 with a 3.05 ERA, and while his xFIP is higher, it is not terrible at 3.78. The latter is bloated by a mediocre walk rate of 2.64/9, but Randy has been able to offset that with a nice K-Rate of 8.53/9 and his groundball rate of 41.0% is a career high.
Also identical to Hancock is Vasquez’s swinging strike rate of 11.6% marks the first time in his 4-year career that rate has been in double digits, and his fastball velocity of 94.8 MPH is a career high while meriting a 106 Stuff+. Furthermore, he has been at his best on the road allowing just four runs in 18.2 innings, and who does not like pitching in T-Mobile Park? This park is a huge benefit to all pitchers with the highest run suppression in baseball per Baseball Savant at 17%.
Moreover, both these starters have very good bullpen support, with the San Diego pen ranked second in baseball in xFIP at 3.41 and the Seattle pen ranked ninth in xFIP and second in ERA at 3.08.
To summarize, this is a matchup of two good starters and two good bullpens while playing in a pitcher’s park. So, it sounds like the ingredients are in place to bet on the Under in Seattle Friday.
THE PICK
Under 7 -101 at Bet105
We dropped to 6-9 with our MLB write-ups with an unlucky loss Wednesday with Arizona, although we are still +23.78 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We look to begin convergence toward that overall mark Friday with a play in the late Padres vs. Mariners matchup.
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, May 15th – 9:40pm ET
We have a matchup of two starting pitchers with very nice potential Friday throwing in perhaps the most pitching friendly environment in baseball. That has us supporting the Under when Emerson Hancock and the Mariners host Randy Vasquez and the Padres at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
New Pitch Mix Suiting Hancock Well
Hancock was mediocre at best over his first three MLB seasons, with a career best ERA of 4.50 and an xFIP best of 4.71. However, he has been a brand-new pitcher this season with an entirely new pitch mix, and the results have been excellent as he is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA and a matching 3.21 xFIP that is ranked a commendable 18th in the Major Leagues. He also has an excellent K/BB ratio of 9.44/1.70 per nine innings.
Emerson relied heavily on his sinker in past seasons, and it was his most frequently thrown pitch last year at 39.1%. However, he has cut back on that this season while turning to more power, as his 95.0 MPH fastball now leads his arsenal at 35.9% while his slider has taken over as his second most thrown pitch at 24.3%. That becomes very relevant when considering the latter has become one of the best sliders in baseball with an impressive Stuff+ rating of 122.
This new mix has resulted in career best +Stats across the board, with an overall Stuff+ of 103, Location+ of 108 and Pitching+ of 104. Further evidence that his improvement is “real” is a huge jump in his swinging strike rate to 11.3% after being in the single digits each of his first three years, and even his groundball rate is up a bit to 45.2% from 43.0% last year despite the diminished use of his sinker with the biting slider now inducing grounders.
Vasquez Peaking in 4th Season?
While Hancock’s improvement came virtually out of nowhere, Vasquez showed glimpses of greatness last year and he is really putting things together in his fourth Major League season. He comes in at 4-1 with a 3.05 ERA, and while his xFIP is higher, it is not terrible at 3.78. The latter is bloated by a mediocre walk rate of 2.64/9, but Randy has been able to offset that with a nice K-Rate of 8.53/9 and his groundball rate of 41.0% is a career high.
Also identical to Hancock is Vasquez’s swinging strike rate of 11.6% marks the first time in his 4-year career that rate has been in double digits, and his fastball velocity of 94.8 MPH is a career high while meriting a 106 Stuff+. Furthermore, he has been at his best on the road allowing just four runs in 18.2 innings, and who does not like pitching in T-Mobile Park? This park is a huge benefit to all pitchers with the highest run suppression in baseball per Baseball Savant at 17%.
Moreover, both these starters have very good bullpen support, with the San Diego pen ranked second in baseball in xFIP at 3.41 and the Seattle pen ranked ninth in xFIP and second in ERA at 3.08.
To summarize, this is a matchup of two good starters and two good bullpens while playing in a pitcher’s park. So, it sounds like the ingredients are in place to bet on the Under in Seattle Friday.
THE PICK
Under 7 -101 at Bet105
