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We fell to 2-4 with our MLB write-ups after our loser with Texas Under on Wednesday. We look to turn things around with the final game on the board out on the west coast Friday with a play in the Marlins vs. Giants matchup in San Francisco.
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, April 24th – 10:15pm ET
In a matchup of a pitcher that has not been the same since returning from Tommy John surgery and one who should show improvement given his metrics, we are backing Adrian Houser and the Giants at home Friday hosting Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins in San Francisco.
Not in Cy Young Form Any More
Alcantara was the National League Cy Young Award winner in 2022, but his career-high 228.2 innings that year may be having a negative impact since then. He had a 4.14 ERA in 2023 before blowing out his elbow, necessitating Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the 2024 season. He then returned last year to poor results, posting career-worsts in ERA (5.36) and strikeout rate (7.32/9).
Now, some may look at his current ERA of 3.06 this year and think that he is back, but we do not think that is the case. He did look great in his first two starts, not allowing an earned run in 16 innings including a Complete Game shutout in his second start, but keep in mind that those two starts were against the weak-hitting Rockies and White Sox.
He has regressed back to his weak form of more recent years since then, and his xFIP of 4.69 is more than 1.60 runs higher than his ERA, which has been aided by a .210 BABIP. Even worse, he has a very ugly K/BB ratio as his K-Rate has slipped further to just 5.86/9 while his walk rate is up to 3.06/9. We feel that Sandy should be a primary fade candidate until his betting odds start reflecting his decline.
Houser Better Peripherally
Now, Houser is not exactly in Cy Young form himself, sitting at 0-2 with an unsightly 5.40 ERA, although his xFIP of 4.53 is better than Alcantara’s. But at least he has some good peripherals that point to imminent improvement, and he is facing a Miami offense whose wRC+ against right-handers has been noticeably worse on the road (95 or 5% below average) than at home (115 or 15% above average).
For starters, he is currently at career-high velocities for both his fastball (95.5 MPH) and perhaps more importantly his sinker (94.8 MPH), with the latter helping lead to a bump in his groundball rate to 51.2%. He is also seeing a nice spike in his soft-contact rate since last year to 18.3% from 14.5%.
But most encouraging is his +Stats bely a pitcher with his modest frontline numbers, as he comes in with a Pitching+ of 104 and a better Location+ of 112.
We see this as a matchup of two pitchers with opposite expected trajectories. Alcantara’s regression is already in progress since his first two starts against weak offenses while more is expected from Houser given his metrics, so we are betting on the Giants at close to a Pick at home.
THE PICK
Giants +100 at Heritage
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, April 24th – 10:15pm ET
In a matchup of a pitcher that has not been the same since returning from Tommy John surgery and one who should show improvement given his metrics, we are backing Adrian Houser and the Giants at home Friday hosting Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins in San Francisco.
Not in Cy Young Form Any More
Alcantara was the National League Cy Young Award winner in 2022, but his career-high 228.2 innings that year may be having a negative impact since then. He had a 4.14 ERA in 2023 before blowing out his elbow, necessitating Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the 2024 season. He then returned last year to poor results, posting career-worsts in ERA (5.36) and strikeout rate (7.32/9).
Now, some may look at his current ERA of 3.06 this year and think that he is back, but we do not think that is the case. He did look great in his first two starts, not allowing an earned run in 16 innings including a Complete Game shutout in his second start, but keep in mind that those two starts were against the weak-hitting Rockies and White Sox.
He has regressed back to his weak form of more recent years since then, and his xFIP of 4.69 is more than 1.60 runs higher than his ERA, which has been aided by a .210 BABIP. Even worse, he has a very ugly K/BB ratio as his K-Rate has slipped further to just 5.86/9 while his walk rate is up to 3.06/9. We feel that Sandy should be a primary fade candidate until his betting odds start reflecting his decline.
Houser Better Peripherally
Now, Houser is not exactly in Cy Young form himself, sitting at 0-2 with an unsightly 5.40 ERA, although his xFIP of 4.53 is better than Alcantara’s. But at least he has some good peripherals that point to imminent improvement, and he is facing a Miami offense whose wRC+ against right-handers has been noticeably worse on the road (95 or 5% below average) than at home (115 or 15% above average).
For starters, he is currently at career-high velocities for both his fastball (95.5 MPH) and perhaps more importantly his sinker (94.8 MPH), with the latter helping lead to a bump in his groundball rate to 51.2%. He is also seeing a nice spike in his soft-contact rate since last year to 18.3% from 14.5%.
But most encouraging is his +Stats bely a pitcher with his modest frontline numbers, as he comes in with a Pitching+ of 104 and a better Location+ of 112.
We see this as a matchup of two pitchers with opposite expected trajectories. Alcantara’s regression is already in progress since his first two starts against weak offenses while more is expected from Houser given his metrics, so we are betting on the Giants at close to a Pick at home.
THE PICK
Giants +100 at Heritage
