Wagerallsports
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 42,981
UFC 294 expert picks and best bets: Can Volkanovski and Usman win on short notice?
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALUFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev puts his belt on the line in a rematch against featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski in the main event at UFC 294 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday (2 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+).
Makhachev, ranked No. 2 in ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings, has not fought since his last title defense against Volkanovski at UFC 284 in February. Volkanovski, ESPN's No. 1 P4P fighter, took this fight on short notice after Charles Oliveira was forced to withdraw due to injury. Volkanovksi beat Yair Rodriguez by third-round TKO to retain the 145-pound title at UFC 290 in July.
In the co-main event, former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman moves up to middleweight to take on Khamzat Chimaev in a No. 1 contender fight for a shot at 185-pound champion Sean Strickland. Usman, who also took the fight on short notice after Paulo Costa had to withdraw following surgery, enters the fight following back-to-back title fight losses to Leon Edwards. Chimaev has yet to fight this year. His last fight was a first-round submission win over Kevin Holland at UFC 279 in September 2022.
ESPN MMA analyst Megan Anderson gives her perspective on the UFC 294 main and co-main events. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Lightweight title fight: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski
Megan Anderson, ESPN MMA analyst
Tale Of The Tape
| MAKHACHEV | VOLKANOVSKI | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32.0 | 35.1 |
| Height | 70.0 | 66.0 |
| Reach | 70.5 | 71.5 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | Feb. 11, 2023 | Jul. 8, 2023 |
Makhachev now knows exactly what he's facing. He's not going to make that same mistake this time. He usually fights the same fight no matter the opponent, as long as he can stick to the game plan -- utilize striking to get a hold of the opponent, get him to the mat and control the fight there -- and avoid making the mistakes he did previously.
How Volkanovski wins: Defend the grappling and takedown attempts from Makhachev. I wouldn't be surprised if Volkanovski looks to force grappling exchanges. He had success when he did it in the first fight. Instead of waiting to stop Makhachev's wrestling game, he may try to push the pace and bring the grappling to Makhachev. If he can stop the wrestling of Makhachev, we may see a different result. The first fight allowed Volkanovski to showcase that he has all the necessary skills to hang with the fighters at lightweight. He was able to gain the confidence that he can handle Makhachev's strength and striking.
This situation is a win-win for Volkanovski. He doesn't lose anything by taking this fight on short notice. All of the odds are stacked against him, but he's a guy that rises to the occasion. I don't think the fact that he hasn't had a camp is going to be a factor in this fight. Volkanovski is a machine. He just doesn't tire. I think he's going to go into this fight more free than we've seen him before because he has nothing to lose. If he wins, he will literally shock the MMA world.
X-factor: Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. Even though his cardio shouldn't be an issue, having time to prepare for an opponent -- even one a fighter may have faced before -- is still important. Makhachev has been in camp for the last three months drilling and getting in shape, which is an advantage. However, even though that could be a positive, it also means he could be entering the fight worn down from all the training and the weight cut.
Prediction: As a fellow Australian, my heart wants Volkanovski to win. But I think Makhachev wins, with everything that's stacked against Volkanovski.
Betting analysis
UFC 294: Makhachev Vs. Volkanovski 2
| Stand-up striking offense | Makhachev | Volkanovski |
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 3:2 | 6:1 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Head jab accuracy | 26% | 45% |
| Head power accuracy | 45% | 44% |
| Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.65 | 0.39 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 62% | 38% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 22 | 39 |
| Takedown defense | 91% | 69% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 90% | 74% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.30 | 0.07 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
We might still see some flashes of Volkanovski tasting success on the feet, and any stab at the upset should factor in striking. But ultimately, Makhachev is still in the driver's seat to decide this with grappling. Backing Makhachev means leaning towards the overs, and a reduction in overall strikes for the fight. But straight up, this feels like a pass.
Parker: Makhachev to win by TKO or decision. Give respect to Volkanovski for taking this fight on 11 days' notice, but there is no way that is enough time to truly prepare for a challenge like Makhachev. Since the fight was announced, the betting odds for Makhachev as a favorite went from -200 to -300. I think this fight is going to be similar to the first one, the only difference would be Makhachev having more time to train for a five-round fight. I assume cardio is on his side. Instead of taking -300 for Makhachev to win, I believe he gets it done either by knockout in the later rounds or decision.
Middleweight: Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev
How Usman wins: Take the fight into deep waters. The longer it goes, the better the chances are for Usman. I don't think Chimaev has fought someone as well-rounded and experienced as Usman, and Usman needs to rely on that experience. Out of 12 fights, Chimaev has had eight end in the first round, and three fights went to the second round. Gilbert Burns was the only opponent that took him to a decision.
Most importantly, Usman needs to be careful in the first round. He should look to wrestle early and often. Not only will that wear on Chimaev's cardio, but it will also take some of the power out of his punches.
How Chimaev wins: Overwhelm Usman with his striking and grappling, blending it all together. I would like to see an evolution in Chimaev's game. He needs to show maturity, the ability to follow a game plan. There has to be some finesse in his game. Chimaev also needs to make smart decisions, especially against an opponent who is as skilled and hard to put away as Usman. Eventually, Chimaev is going to find an opponent who can counter his ability to walk opponents down. What does he have then? Who knows if Usman will be the one to do it? But if Usman is able to do so, Chimaev needs to have an answer.
Usman has never fought an opponent as relentless and aggressive as Chimaev. Usman faced Colby Covington, who has a similar approach and fighting style, but Chimev is even more aggressive than Covington. And Chimaev will have a size advantage. He needs to use that.
X-factor: How does Usman look at his new weight? This is such a tough fight to break down stylistically because we don't know how he will handle the move up to 185 pounds.
Prediction: Chimaev wins. Usman poses some interesting challenges, but I think Chimaev wins a short-notice fight. If Usman can weather the early storm, though, he has a great chance to win.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Usman to win (+230). The striking and submission stats for Chimaev are certainly impressive. In his mere thirty minutes of Octagon time, Chimaev has proven that he can exploit the deficiencies of fighters in their weakest area. But what is Usman's weakness? Maybe he's lost a step since the peak of his dominance?On paper, Usman's grappling stats are just below Chimaev's, but that's also accumulated through 10 times the total Octagon time, and Usman has consistently fought top talent. Considering that Chimaev has the worst head strike defense on the entire fight card, and that Usman throws with above-average power and precision, there's actually a path (or two) to an upset.
Parker: Chimaev to win (-280). As great as Usman has been throughout his career, I think this is going to be too big of a hill to climb, especially on short notice. I also felt that Usman didn't look like himself in the rematch against Edwards. He was hesitant and stiff. Unlike most of Usman's recent fights, this bout is only three rounds, so maybe he thinks he can land a shot on Chimaev, similar to the way Gilbert Burns did, and get a win and a quick path to the 185-pound title.
However, I just don't see it happening. I don't see a true path to victory for Usman, and this is an absolute nightmare matchup for him. Look for Chimaev to land a big shot early and then take Usman down and punish him there. Usman might be able to defend the takedowns early in the fight, but once Chimaev does get it to the floor, I think it's going to be over.
