Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez 🤛

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Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez​

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From 2016 through 2020, Max Holloway only ever fought in title fights. But after three title fight losses, Holloway is now holding the role of non-title main event material. Which seems to suit him just fine, based on his record-setting striking performance against Calvin Kattar in his last fight.

MMA analysts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker are here to give you their best bets for UFC Fight Night.

Prelims start at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

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Featherweight main event: Max Holloway (-625) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+450)​

Tale Of The Tape​

	MAX HOLLOWAY	YAIR RODRIGUEZ
Last fight weight class	Featherweight	Featherweight
Age	29	29
Height	71	71
Reach	69	71
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Analyzed minutes	361	133
Stand-up striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received)	8:0	3:0
Distance knockdown rate	0.6%	2.3%
Head jab accuracy	33%	31%
Head power accuracy	42%	26%
Total stand-up strike ratio	1.3	1.4
Striking defense
Total head strike defense	70%	69%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin")	100%	100%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch	0.02	0.29
Takedown accuracy	71%	30%
Advances per takedown/top control	3.6	0.9
Opponent takedown attempts	145	33
Takedown defense	84%	64%
Share of total ground time in control	41%	28%
Submission attempts per trip to ground	0.29	0.40

Holloway's losses to Alexander Volkanovski and Dustin Poirier (at lightweight) proved he can be beaten, but they also proved his resilience and cemented his ability to fight at full speed over five full rounds, even when facing an elite opponent. Now against less experienced talent, Holloway could do his best work in a five-round fight. Rodriguez clearly has upside in the long run, but facing a superior striker with no proven superlatives to create an opportunity just means it's a steep uphill battle.

While both men can move at a solid pace, Holloway has shown some of the best strike accuracy in the UFC and has done so while facing the best of the best. Rodriguez has shown mediocre accuracy and defense against less dominant talent -- and for not nearly as long. While his power is arguably greater than Holloway's on a per-strike basis, the accumulation of damage from Holloway's relentless barrages has worn down former champions and challengers alike. A five-rounder is a long time to survive his pressure, but the youth and resilience could keep Rodriguez standing.

Kuhn's pick: Holloway to use in parlays. Avoid the primary 4.5 round total, unless you're using an alternative lower total for parlays, such as over 2.5 at roughly -200. Holloway has gone over 2.5 rounds in all 11 appearances since 2015 and in 19 of his 24 career UFC bouts.

Coming off one of the most dominant striking wins in the history of the UFC, Holloway is looking to take one more step in his quest to getting back to another title shot. In his last six fights dating back to 2018, other than a TKO win over Brian Ortega that ended at the end of Round 4 via doctor stoppage, Holloway's fights have all gone the distance. I expect this fight against Rodriguez to be very similar to his last fight against Kattar. Look for Holloway to turn this into a boxing match, use his speed, precision and incredible volume to overwhelm Rodriguez throughout the five-round main event.

Rodriguez is a very talented striker with a karate style. I don't see either man getting the finish, as both don't really possess true KO power, unless Rodriguez lands some sort of spinning elbow or wild kick (again, I don't see that happening against a guy like Holloway). For those reasons, I am going over 3.5 rounds here.

Parkers' pick: Over 3.5 rounds (-162)

Best bets elsewhere on the card​

Thiago Moises (-240) vs. Joel Alvarez (+200)

Riding a three fight win streak, Alvarez will have his toughest opponent to date against Moises. Alvarez will need to use his ground game in order to win this fight. Both men are excellent in the grappling department, but the difference is going to be on the feet, and that favors Moises. Most of the time when you have two submission aces, the ground game gets neutralized and it turns into a standup battle. With recent wins over Bobby Green and Alex Hernandez, we are watching Moises turn into a complete fighter with his tremendous improvement in his striking. Look for Moises to keep the fight on the feet, where he will have the advantage and win a decision.

Parker's pick: Moises via decision (+100)

Moises closed as an enormous underdog in his last appearance against potential title contender Islam Makhachev. And although Moises lost that fight, his early performance finally earned him some respect. He converted as an underdog in three straight fights prior to that, so he's entering unfamiliar territory now as a clear betting favorite over Alvarez. That speaks to the quality of Moises' performances and the quality of his opposition.

Alvarez, on the other hand, has wins over fighters mostly no longer in the UFC and will take a big step up in competition. His long history of submission wins won't be as much of an advantage against a seasoned BJJ black belt like Moises, and his performance metrics also reveal some more advantages for the favorite.

Kuhn's pick: Money line play on Moises. Consider combining him with Holloway or with Holloway-Rodriguez over 2.5 rounds.

Ben Rothwell (-150) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+125)

The last times Rothwell lost via TKO were back in 2009 against Cain Velasquez and a submission loss to Gabriel Gonzaga in 2013. Since then, his remaining losses have all been by decision. I find it very hard to believe that if De Lima is going to win against Rothwell, he is going to grind out a decision. Look for Lima to bring heavy kicks and heavy punches early in the first round. Once Rothwell weathers the storm, I believe his output on the feet will be an issue for De Lima. At some point in the fight, I expect Rothwell to use his black belt in Jui Jitsu and take Lima to the floor, where he will have a huge advantage. If Rothwell is to get the finish, I believe it will be by submission, the same way he did in his last fight, so feel free to sprinkle a little bit on the sub prop.

Parker's pick: Straight wager on Rothwell -150, Rothwell by submission +350

Cynthia Calvillo (-120) vs. Andrea Lee (+100)

For a more affordable prelim fight play, consider Lee over Calvillo. Lee, a flyweight, will be substantially larger than her opponent, a former strawweight. That could assist Lee in leveraging her boxing experience from a distance. Though Calvillo does bring a well-rounded mix of skills, her ground game doesn't appear to be dominant enough to dictate the fight or nullify Lee's striking.

Kuhn's pick: Money line play on Lee

Da-Un Jung (-120) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (+100)


In his last fight, Jung dominated a very tough and surging prospect in William Knight. Jung showed a very high fight IQ and utilized his wrestling and ground game to get the unanimous win. As long as Jung doesn't gas out (he has shown zero cardio issues), I believe this fight is his to win. Kennedy won his last two fights by TKO, but that was after almost losing in both fights and having to come from behind to win. Had his opponents not emptied the tank too early, Kennedy would have been in dire trouble. Jung doesn't have cardio issues, and as long as he keeps Kennedy on his back, I don't see how Jung loses this fight.

Parker's pick: Jung -120