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Best bets for UFC 269: Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier
ESPN PLUS $ MATERAIALThe lightweight title picture won't feel official until the defending champ Charles Oliveira faces unofficial champ Dustin Poirier, who is coming off back-to-back finishes of Conor McGregor. It's a fantastic matchup between two guys who appear to be at their peak.
Early prelims start at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, prelims are at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on PPV. Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn are here to give you their favorite plays and props.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Lightweight title fight: Charles Oliveira (+135) vs. Dustin Poirier (-160)
Tale Of The Tape
| CHARLES OLIVEIRA | DUSTIN POIRIER | |
|---|---|---|
| Last fight weight class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Age | 32 | 32 |
| Height | 70 | 69 |
| Reach | 74 | 72 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Analyzed minutes | 193 | 280 |
| Stand-up striking offense | ||
| Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) | 6:2 | 12:2 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Head jab accuracy | 23% | 40% |
| Head power accuracy | 41% | 44% |
| Total stand-up strike ratio | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total head strike defense | 66% | 66% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") | 99% | 99% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per min standing/clinch | 0.79 | 0.39 |
| Takedown accuracy | 45% | 37% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 42 | 67 |
| Takedown defense | 57% | 61% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 44% | 54% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.67 | 0.43 |
The wild card here is Oliveira's submissions, which will probably cement him in the record books should he keep fighting even into his mid-30s. He attempts submissions at a very high rate once on the ground, and despite opponents knowing his skill set, they often find themselves tapping to his chokes. The chance of a submission finish is there, but it isn't high enough to back Oliveira straight up against a fairly seasoned grappler who knows he can win on the feet.
Kuhn's pick: Money line play on Poirier at better than -180, fight does not go the distance (which banks on Poirier accumulating punches or Oliveira finding a submission opportunity).
There is an old saying ... No pressure, no diamonds! "The Diamond" Poirier will be looking to cement his legacy and become the undisputed champ with a win over Oliveira. Look for Dustin to be the better boxer, use his calf kicks and keep the fight standing. I also expect Poirier to drag Oliveira into the championship rounds. something Oliveira has yet to experience. As long as Poirier can keep Oliveira from taking him down or getting his back, I believe we will hear "and new" at UFC 269.
Parker's pick: Poirier (-160)
Women's bantamweight title fight: Champ Amanda Nunes (-800) vs. Julianna Pena (+550)
It's rare when a fighter opens as an 8-to-1 favorite, and the market thinks it's not high enough. But Nunes is at the top of the game, and the UFC is having a tough time finding a legitimate contender. Pena enters the matchup with inferior performance metrics and two submission losses in her last four fights.
That seems to confirm the fight is a layup for the champ, but it doesn't leave much room for betting value. The more valuable question is whether Nunes will get the finish. Inside the distance for Nunes is already heavily juiced around -350. And while that's a safer play to include in a parlay, it's anchored mainly by the expectation of a Nunes TKO.
Pena's style is that of a grinder. She likes to close distance, clinch and use her size to stifle opponents. But that likely won't work against Nunes, who can make Pena pay dearly for coming forward and will also have the grappling advantage. That does suggest Nunes will have opportunities for a finish. The surprising price for a submission is +300 or more. Using Nunes inside the distance is the safe play, but a small prop on a submission will offer a big payout.
Kuhn's pick: Nunes to win, Nunes inside the distance, small prop on Nunes by submission.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
Kai Kara-France (+120) vs. Cody Garbrandt (-140)For upset potential, look at Kara-France welcoming Garbrandt to the flyweight division. Kara-France is an accurate and rangy striker who will need to be wary of Garbrandt's power. But with the former bantamweight champ dropping a weight class and still giving up a range advantage, it's not a favorable combination.
It's unlikely to involve much grappling, so both men will test their hands. Barring Garbrandt landing something big, Kara-France will do well in a striking duel.
Kuhn's pick: Kara-France to win at plus money.
Santiago Ponzinibbio (-130) vs. Geoff Neal (+110)
Entering the cage riding a two-fight losing streak, Neal is aiming to get back in the win column. For Neal, he has to either wrestle or land one of his power strikes and get Ponzinibbio hurt early, otherwise I do not see another path to victory for him. Ponzinibbio, coming off one of his most impressive performances to date over Miguel Baez, will be looking to continue that momentum into his fight with Neal. Look for Ponzinibbio to utilize his calf kicks and his high striking output to tire out Neal and get the win.
Parker's pick: Ponzinibbio (-130)
Dan Ige (+145) vs. Josh Emmett (-170)
For another potential upset, consider Ige over Emmett. Emmett has racked up more knockdowns and knockouts in his career, but Ige has shown resiliency and is the more accurate of the two strikers. Ige has given top talent a run for their money, so look for him to make this competitive for three rounds.
Kuhn's pick: Fight goes the distance, money line lean on Ige at decent plus money.
Miranda Maverick (-135) vs. Erin Blanchfield (+115)
Coming off an extremely controversial loss to Maycee Barber, Maverick will be looking to bounce back against another highly touted prospect in Blanchfield. I am surprised the odds are not higher in favor of Maverick, as she has fought higher level competition, and everyone except for the judges thought she should of gotten the win over Barber. Maverick is capable of taking this fight to the floor, but her advantage will be on the feet, as she will be the superior striker.
Parker's pick: Maverick (-135)
Pedro Munhoz (-115) vs. Dominick Cruz (-105)
Munhoz's last four fights (win or lose) have all gone to a decision. I don't see the result being much different against Cruz, who has gone to a decision in four of his last five fights. Cruz is a high-volume striker, but he doesn't carry a ton of power and is also very difficult to put away. I think Munhoz gets it done here. Look for him to use calf kicks to slow down Cruz and land the more damaging shots. If Munhoz can get the fight to the ground, he will have the advantage there as well.
Parker's pick: Fight goes the distance (-175), Munhoz (-115)
Gillian Robertson (-380) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+300)
For another justified favorite with a big grappling advantage, look at Robertson. Her total time spent in ground control is second best on the card at 47% (Darrick Minner is at 56%), and Cachoeira comes in at just 2%, the second-worst (Augusto Sakai at 1%).
That differential suggests that Robertson's usual game plan of a wrestling-heavy attack will carry an even bigger advantage than usual.
Kuhn's pick: Robertson to win; consider her for a parlay as well.
