Both of these teams fill up the hoop and love to push the pace. The Alabama Crimson Tide are first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom while ranking 13th in adjusted tempo. Meanwhile, the Florida Gators are 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 33rd in adjusted tempo. They also both have issues on the other end of the floor with the Tide 100th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and Florida 87th.
With highly-efficient and up-tempo attacks facing struggling defenses, it's no surprise we're seeing a massive total of 175.5 for tonight's showdown. Even at that towering number, I still like the Over. Keep in mind the total actually opened at 177 before being bet down, and that KenPom has a projected total of 179 with Bart Torvik at 181.
These schools combined for a whopping 191 points in Tuscaloosa two weeks ago in a 98-93 Alabama victory. What was surprising about that offensive outburst was that neither side shot well from the perimeter, combining to go just 17-for-62 from the arc (27.4%). If they can combine for 170 points in regulation with both teams uncharacteristically shooting poorly, we should see even more scoring when positive regression sets in.
In addition, the Gators typically shoot much better at home where they have an effective field goal percentage of 54.7% compared to 48.7 EFG% on the road. The Tide have been shooting lights out on the road — boasting a 55.4 EFG% — but they've been even worse than usual on the other end of the floor.
Like Alabama +1.5 or 2 depending on shop.
Also like the over at 176.0 or 176.5
With highly-efficient and up-tempo attacks facing struggling defenses, it's no surprise we're seeing a massive total of 175.5 for tonight's showdown. Even at that towering number, I still like the Over. Keep in mind the total actually opened at 177 before being bet down, and that KenPom has a projected total of 179 with Bart Torvik at 181.
These schools combined for a whopping 191 points in Tuscaloosa two weeks ago in a 98-93 Alabama victory. What was surprising about that offensive outburst was that neither side shot well from the perimeter, combining to go just 17-for-62 from the arc (27.4%). If they can combine for 170 points in regulation with both teams uncharacteristically shooting poorly, we should see even more scoring when positive regression sets in.
In addition, the Gators typically shoot much better at home where they have an effective field goal percentage of 54.7% compared to 48.7 EFG% on the road. The Tide have been shooting lights out on the road — boasting a 55.4 EFG% — but they've been even worse than usual on the other end of the floor.
Like Alabama +1.5 or 2 depending on shop.
Also like the over at 176.0 or 176.5
