AL Wild Card race/odds

[2the9s]

Playoff odds from betonline:
TB: Yes -2500 No +1000
Hou: Yes -1100 No +650
Tor: Yes -270 No +210
Sea: Yes +190 No -230
Bos Yes+425 No -650

TB 72	50	.590	+4.5	40-22	32-28	630	490	+140	L1	5-5
Hou 69	52	.570	+2	33-26	36-26	587	504	+83	W1	6-4
Tor 67	54	.554	-	32-26	35-28	542	482	+60	W2	6-4
Sea 64	55	.538	2	34-28	30-27	547	488	+59	W1	7-3
Bos 63	56	.529	3	35-28	28-28	576	546	+30	W2	6-4

 

[2the9s]

IMO this could be a very tight race. Tighter than both the odds and the standing indicate because the AL wild card teams all play each other. Seattle has great pitching and Boston is finally healthy. Tampa has a lot of injuries and Toronto has a number of players having career years that could regress to the mean at any time.

It seems like there could be value here, especially the yes odds on Sea and Bos. With a little better odds fading TB might not be a bad idea either.

Thoughts?

 

[BMR Genie]

Great info. thanks for sharing, 2the9s.

Good luck if you're going to take action on Sea and Bos.

 

[jjgold]

Tampa no a great shot

 

[Tanko]

IMO this could be a very tight race. Tighter than both the odds and the standing indicate because the AL wild card teams all play each other. Seattle has great pitching and Boston is finally healthy. Tampa has a lot of injuries and Toronto has a number of players having career years that could regress to the mean at any time.

It seems like there could be value here, especially the yes odds on Sea and Bos. With a little better odds fading TB might not be a bad idea either.

Thoughts?

I think Seattle makes it. They have a much easier schedule than the others (Houston's is easy too). Boston has the 2nd toughest schedule to finish out the year. Might be an uphill battle even with everyone back from injury. Tampa's isn't a cakewalk either.

MLB Strength of Schedule Remaining

So who has the edge on SOS remaining? >> Seattle, Cubs, Baltimore, Houston, Minny all have easier paths going forward. >> Boston, Giants, Miami, TB have a tougher road from here. 1. Washington 0.537 2. Colorado 0.537 3. Boston 0.536 4. San Francisco 0.523 5. Miami 0.523 6. Tampa...

www.bookmakersreview.com

Hoping BOS/SEA/HOU are in....
Sorry Wager... I'm thinking TB fades.

 

[Pimike]

I actually thinks Balty fades

 

[Jrgum3]

Tampa's screwed as far as World Series hopes go imo but in terms of making the playoffs I think they're probably still a fairly safe bet because they find ways to win. Who knows though maybe the whole Wander Franco fiasco is too big a distraction to overcome and they completely choke away their good start to the season. I just don't think they will and the only team out of those mentioned that I would feel comfortable betting the no on is Boston.

 

[fiftycint]

Seattle did less than nothing at deadline....What the F

 

[stormtrooper8]

Not terrible value on Seattle or Boston.

Think the 3 in position probably hold if I had to guess, but maybe Toronto fades

 

[2the9s]

Updated playoff odds

Tampa: Yes -10000 No +2000
Houston: Yes -500 No +300
Seattle: yes -270 No +210
Toronto: Yes -175 No +145
Boston: No -600 yes +400

 

[2the9s]

3 wild card spots and 4 teams are chalk to make them. There has to be value on the no side for one of them.

 

[jjgold]

Toronto’s hanging on but they look very shaky