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MLB Pick for Friday: Low Total at T-Mobile Tonight
We dropped to .500 at 15-15 with our MLB write-ups with an unlucky loser on Wednesday. That is in stark contrast to approaching +40, at +38.02 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We are looking for a bit of convergence Friday with a play on Red Sox vs. Mariners in Seattle.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, June 19th – 9:40pm ET
We are staying in The Emerald City of Seattle for our second straight write-up after losing with the Under on Wednesday by one-half run due to three solo home runs in the ninth inning.
This time it is the Red Sox coming to town for a weekend series, with the southpaw Ranger Suarez starting this opener. Bryce Miller is starting for the Mariners in a piggy-back situation with Luis Castillo expected to follow, although we do expect Miller to work five innings. That is enough for us to support the Under in this spot.
Miller Has Been Brilliant
Before moving on, we totally get that it can be uncomfortable betting on an Under of 6.5 as we are here. But consider that T-Mobile Park can now literally be considered the best pitching park in the majors (well, tied for it at least). As of this minute following a 3-0 Seattle win yesterday, T-Mobile has now tied Globe Life Field in Texas for the highest run suppression in the league per Baseball Savant, at a fat 15%.
On to the pitchers, Miller has been nothing short of brilliant since a belated season debut due to injury. He has made six appearances so far including five starts and following Castillo in a piggy-back the other time, and he is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA and a higher but still good 3.00 xFIP over 35 innings. He now looks like the Miller of 2024 that posted a 2.94 ERA over 180.1 innings before an injury plagued 2025.
He has an excellent K/BB ratio of 9.26/1.29 per nine innings while owning one of the widest arsenals in the league with seven different pitches. His fastball velocity is at a career high of 96.6 MPH, an indication he is finally fully healthy. His hard contact rate of 29.8% is down from a disturbing 40.0% when not at full strength last year. He also has a career best swinging strike rate of 12.4% and has excellent +Stats with a 111 Stuff+, 110 Location+ and 119 Pitching+!
Now, the veteran Castillo probably has his best days behind him, as he comes in at 2-6 with a 5.00 ERA and 4.30 xFIP. But, to his credit, he has been much better since he and Miller first piggy-backed five games ago, posting a 2.38 ERA with 22 strikeouts over 22.2 innings.
Remember also that Miller and Castillo are both right-handed, and the Red Sox rank 29th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against right-handers at just 86 (or 14% below average).
Suarez Pitching Well for New Team
Suarez is in his first season with the Red Sox after spending his entire career with the Phillies previously, and his disappointing 2-3 record can be directly attributed to the previously mentioned struggles of the Boston offense. That is because he has pitched very well with a 3.21 ERA and a 3.55 xFIP that is a commendable 26th best in the majors for pitchers with at least 70 innings.
Ranger too has a good K/BB ratio of 9.00/2.70 per nine innings along with an outstanding soft/hard contact ratio of 18.7% / 24.4%, with that hard contact rate being the lowest in the majors! In fact, Suarez has now allowed two runs or less in six of his last eight starts despite not recording a win in his last seven outings with the poor run support.
The lefty faces a Seattle offense ranked 27th in wRC+ against southpaws at 85.
What we have here is two excellent starting pitchers and two offenses at their worst offensive splits while playing in the most run-suppressing stadium in the league. So, we are betting on the Under even at the low 6.5 line, especially with + odds available as of this writing.
THE PICK
Under 6.5 +104 at Bet105
We dropped to .500 at 15-15 with our MLB write-ups with an unlucky loser on Wednesday. That is in stark contrast to approaching +40, at +38.02 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We are looking for a bit of convergence Friday with a play on Red Sox vs. Mariners in Seattle.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, June 19th – 9:40pm ET
We are staying in The Emerald City of Seattle for our second straight write-up after losing with the Under on Wednesday by one-half run due to three solo home runs in the ninth inning.
This time it is the Red Sox coming to town for a weekend series, with the southpaw Ranger Suarez starting this opener. Bryce Miller is starting for the Mariners in a piggy-back situation with Luis Castillo expected to follow, although we do expect Miller to work five innings. That is enough for us to support the Under in this spot.
Miller Has Been Brilliant
Before moving on, we totally get that it can be uncomfortable betting on an Under of 6.5 as we are here. But consider that T-Mobile Park can now literally be considered the best pitching park in the majors (well, tied for it at least). As of this minute following a 3-0 Seattle win yesterday, T-Mobile has now tied Globe Life Field in Texas for the highest run suppression in the league per Baseball Savant, at a fat 15%.
On to the pitchers, Miller has been nothing short of brilliant since a belated season debut due to injury. He has made six appearances so far including five starts and following Castillo in a piggy-back the other time, and he is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA and a higher but still good 3.00 xFIP over 35 innings. He now looks like the Miller of 2024 that posted a 2.94 ERA over 180.1 innings before an injury plagued 2025.
He has an excellent K/BB ratio of 9.26/1.29 per nine innings while owning one of the widest arsenals in the league with seven different pitches. His fastball velocity is at a career high of 96.6 MPH, an indication he is finally fully healthy. His hard contact rate of 29.8% is down from a disturbing 40.0% when not at full strength last year. He also has a career best swinging strike rate of 12.4% and has excellent +Stats with a 111 Stuff+, 110 Location+ and 119 Pitching+!
Now, the veteran Castillo probably has his best days behind him, as he comes in at 2-6 with a 5.00 ERA and 4.30 xFIP. But, to his credit, he has been much better since he and Miller first piggy-backed five games ago, posting a 2.38 ERA with 22 strikeouts over 22.2 innings.
Remember also that Miller and Castillo are both right-handed, and the Red Sox rank 29th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against right-handers at just 86 (or 14% below average).
Suarez Pitching Well for New Team
Suarez is in his first season with the Red Sox after spending his entire career with the Phillies previously, and his disappointing 2-3 record can be directly attributed to the previously mentioned struggles of the Boston offense. That is because he has pitched very well with a 3.21 ERA and a 3.55 xFIP that is a commendable 26th best in the majors for pitchers with at least 70 innings.
Ranger too has a good K/BB ratio of 9.00/2.70 per nine innings along with an outstanding soft/hard contact ratio of 18.7% / 24.4%, with that hard contact rate being the lowest in the majors! In fact, Suarez has now allowed two runs or less in six of his last eight starts despite not recording a win in his last seven outings with the poor run support.
The lefty faces a Seattle offense ranked 27th in wRC+ against southpaws at 85.
What we have here is two excellent starting pitchers and two offenses at their worst offensive splits while playing in the most run-suppressing stadium in the league. So, we are betting on the Under even at the low 6.5 line, especially with + odds available as of this writing.
THE PICK
Under 6.5 +104 at Bet105
