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MLB Pick for Friday: Betting on Total Tallies in Texas Tonight
We got back to .500 at 12-12 with our MLB write-ups with an easy winner on Wednesday, and we now up to +22.57 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We return on Friday with a total selection in Royals vs. Rangers from Arlington, available on Apple TV.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, June 5th – 8:15pm ET
The Guardians and Rangers begin a weekend series from Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX Friday night in a game available nationally on Apple TV.
Southpaw Parker Messick gets the start for Cleveland while right-hander Kumar Rocker is on the bump for Texas. Each pitcher has a fine ERA so far this year and each puts their opponents at their worst offensive split, which has us backing the Under in this contest.
Messick 5th in ERA
Before getting into the specifics of this contest, consider that Globe Life Field has become an extremely pronounced pitchers’ park in recent years. This stadium yielded the best Under record in baseball last season at 51-29-1, and that mark is currently at 18-9-1 this year with the park ranked fourth in run suppression per Baseball Savant.
Not that Messick has needed much help this season as he is 6-1 through 12 starts covering 69.1 innings, while ranking fifth in the majors with his 2.21 ERA. Sure, his xFIP is a bit higher but it is still very good at 3.24, and he has a nice K-Rate of 9.61/9. He has a 6-pitch arsenal that has helped generate a swinging strike rate of 11.9% despite not being the hardest thrower in the league with the fastball averaging 93.4 MPH.
Besides the ballpark, Parker also now benefits from facing a Texas offense that has struggled with left-handers, ranking 27th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against them at 83 (17% below average). Furthermore, he has the support of a Cleveland bullpen ranked sixth in xFIP at 3.80.
Rocker Capable vs. Sub-Par Lineup
Rocker comes in at 2-5, but that record is a disconnection from his 3.54 ERA. Though to be fair, that ERA is deceptive alongside his 4.48 xFIP. Still, he has had a double-digit swinging strike rates each year since getting called up in 2024, and his sinker/slider combo has produced 50.0% groundball rate this year, a bit above his career rate of 49.3%.
One reason for that bump has been an increase in the usage of his sinker this season to 35.4%, which has also helped lead to a sharp reduction in his home run rate allowed to 0.80/9 from an alarming 1.54/9 last year.
Kumar is also facing a below average lineup against right-handers, with the Guardians ranked 22nd against them in wRC+ at 93 overall, a figure that drops to 89 on the road. Moreover, he has the support of a Texas bullpen ranked eighth in ERA at 3.33.
So, what we have here is two good starters, two good bullpens and two offenses at their weaker splits while playing in a pitcher’s park. Add a cherry on top with the +111 odds available as of this writing and bet on the Under in Texas on Friday.
THE PICK
Under 7 +111 at Bookmaker
We got back to .500 at 12-12 with our MLB write-ups with an easy winner on Wednesday, and we now up to +22.57 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We return on Friday with a total selection in Royals vs. Rangers from Arlington, available on Apple TV.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, June 5th – 8:15pm ET
The Guardians and Rangers begin a weekend series from Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX Friday night in a game available nationally on Apple TV.
Southpaw Parker Messick gets the start for Cleveland while right-hander Kumar Rocker is on the bump for Texas. Each pitcher has a fine ERA so far this year and each puts their opponents at their worst offensive split, which has us backing the Under in this contest.
Messick 5th in ERA
Before getting into the specifics of this contest, consider that Globe Life Field has become an extremely pronounced pitchers’ park in recent years. This stadium yielded the best Under record in baseball last season at 51-29-1, and that mark is currently at 18-9-1 this year with the park ranked fourth in run suppression per Baseball Savant.
Not that Messick has needed much help this season as he is 6-1 through 12 starts covering 69.1 innings, while ranking fifth in the majors with his 2.21 ERA. Sure, his xFIP is a bit higher but it is still very good at 3.24, and he has a nice K-Rate of 9.61/9. He has a 6-pitch arsenal that has helped generate a swinging strike rate of 11.9% despite not being the hardest thrower in the league with the fastball averaging 93.4 MPH.
Besides the ballpark, Parker also now benefits from facing a Texas offense that has struggled with left-handers, ranking 27th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against them at 83 (17% below average). Furthermore, he has the support of a Cleveland bullpen ranked sixth in xFIP at 3.80.
Rocker Capable vs. Sub-Par Lineup
Rocker comes in at 2-5, but that record is a disconnection from his 3.54 ERA. Though to be fair, that ERA is deceptive alongside his 4.48 xFIP. Still, he has had a double-digit swinging strike rates each year since getting called up in 2024, and his sinker/slider combo has produced 50.0% groundball rate this year, a bit above his career rate of 49.3%.
One reason for that bump has been an increase in the usage of his sinker this season to 35.4%, which has also helped lead to a sharp reduction in his home run rate allowed to 0.80/9 from an alarming 1.54/9 last year.
Kumar is also facing a below average lineup against right-handers, with the Guardians ranked 22nd against them in wRC+ at 93 overall, a figure that drops to 89 on the road. Moreover, he has the support of a Texas bullpen ranked eighth in ERA at 3.33.
So, what we have here is two good starters, two good bullpens and two offenses at their weaker splits while playing in a pitcher’s park. Add a cherry on top with the +111 odds available as of this writing and bet on the Under in Texas on Friday.
THE PICK
Under 7 +111 at Bookmaker
Now see 7.5 across the board with all Alt 7 lines having better odds than +111
