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MLB Pick for Friday: Bello Bulking May Be Bad for Boston
We went to 10-11 with our third straight win with MLB write-ups with Boston Wednesday, and we are up to +27.39 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We have another play involving the Red Sox as they face the Guardians Friday.
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Friday, May 29th – 6:45pm ET
The Red Sox travel to Progressive Field in Cleveland to take on the Guardians as the teams embark on a weekend series.
Slade Cecconi gets the start for the Guardians while the Red Sox are expected to employ an Opener before turning the ball over to Brayan Bello as their primary pitcher. Bello has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season and the Bosox have not been hitting well, so we are backing the Guardians as modest home favorites.
Not Reliable Any More
Bello has never been an ace starter, but he was quite reliable the last three seasons while not missing many starting assignments and eating up innings. He even posted a 3.35 ERA last year over 166.2 innings, although he overachieved with that ERA as his xFIP was more than a full run higher at 4.39.
That alone could have been seen as a sign of pending regression this season, but nobody expected him to be as awful as he has been. He enters this game 2-5 with an abysmal 6.43 ERA that is the sixth worst in baseball among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. And sadly, his peripherals suggest that his decline is not a mirage.
He has lost nearly a full MPH on his fastball at 94.2 from 95.1 MPH last year, resulting in a strikeout rate of only 6.43/9, making for a bad ratio alongside his high walk rate of 3.86/9. He has an atrocious soft/hard contact ratio of 9.7% / 34.7%, which has resulted in his worst home runs allowed rate ever at a disturbing 1.84/9. And perhaps most damning of all, his overall Stuff+ sits at a career worst 92.
Besides, just the Red Sox making the desperate move of using Brayan following an opener after he was a reliable starter in recent years already indicates a loss in confidence in the 27-year-old.
Boston Struggling with Righties
Now, Cecconi is not an ace either by any means as he is just 3-5 with a bloated ERA of his own at 5.18. But at least his xFIP is better at 4.27 and he appears to have turned a corner, allowing three runs or less on each of his last four starts recording 16 strikeouts against four walks over his last three outings.
It is interesting that his recent improvement coincides with Slade basically dumping his slider and increasing the use of his change-up. The significance of that is the slider has a Stuff+ of just 91 while inducing only an 8.0% swinging strike rate, while the change-up has a Stuff+ of 99 while generating more groundballs. That groundball rate is now up to 45.3% for the season after sitting at 50.0% with the added change-ups over the last three starts.
Cecconi also benefits from facing what has been one of the worst offenses in the majors against right-handed pitchers, with Boston ranking 28th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against them at 87.
Our model has the Guardians winning this matchup 56% of the time (-127), and we love that Cecconi’s recent improvement is fueled by a change in pitch mix, making it seem “real”. So, we are betting on the Guardians as relatively cheap home favorites.
NOTE: Since this play is based on Bello bulking, we selected the “Action” option on the Boston side in case they change Openers or give Bello a conventional start.
THE PICK
Guardians -115 (ACTION/Cecconi) at Heritage
We went to 10-11 with our third straight win with MLB write-ups with Boston Wednesday, and we are up to +27.39 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We have another play involving the Red Sox as they face the Guardians Friday.
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Friday, May 29th – 6:45pm ET
The Red Sox travel to Progressive Field in Cleveland to take on the Guardians as the teams embark on a weekend series.
Slade Cecconi gets the start for the Guardians while the Red Sox are expected to employ an Opener before turning the ball over to Brayan Bello as their primary pitcher. Bello has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season and the Bosox have not been hitting well, so we are backing the Guardians as modest home favorites.
Not Reliable Any More
Bello has never been an ace starter, but he was quite reliable the last three seasons while not missing many starting assignments and eating up innings. He even posted a 3.35 ERA last year over 166.2 innings, although he overachieved with that ERA as his xFIP was more than a full run higher at 4.39.
That alone could have been seen as a sign of pending regression this season, but nobody expected him to be as awful as he has been. He enters this game 2-5 with an abysmal 6.43 ERA that is the sixth worst in baseball among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. And sadly, his peripherals suggest that his decline is not a mirage.
He has lost nearly a full MPH on his fastball at 94.2 from 95.1 MPH last year, resulting in a strikeout rate of only 6.43/9, making for a bad ratio alongside his high walk rate of 3.86/9. He has an atrocious soft/hard contact ratio of 9.7% / 34.7%, which has resulted in his worst home runs allowed rate ever at a disturbing 1.84/9. And perhaps most damning of all, his overall Stuff+ sits at a career worst 92.
Besides, just the Red Sox making the desperate move of using Brayan following an opener after he was a reliable starter in recent years already indicates a loss in confidence in the 27-year-old.
Boston Struggling with Righties
Now, Cecconi is not an ace either by any means as he is just 3-5 with a bloated ERA of his own at 5.18. But at least his xFIP is better at 4.27 and he appears to have turned a corner, allowing three runs or less on each of his last four starts recording 16 strikeouts against four walks over his last three outings.
It is interesting that his recent improvement coincides with Slade basically dumping his slider and increasing the use of his change-up. The significance of that is the slider has a Stuff+ of just 91 while inducing only an 8.0% swinging strike rate, while the change-up has a Stuff+ of 99 while generating more groundballs. That groundball rate is now up to 45.3% for the season after sitting at 50.0% with the added change-ups over the last three starts.
Cecconi also benefits from facing what has been one of the worst offenses in the majors against right-handed pitchers, with Boston ranking 28th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against them at 87.
Our model has the Guardians winning this matchup 56% of the time (-127), and we love that Cecconi’s recent improvement is fueled by a change in pitch mix, making it seem “real”. So, we are betting on the Guardians as relatively cheap home favorites.
NOTE: Since this play is based on Bello bulking, we selected the “Action” option on the Boston side in case they change Openers or give Bello a conventional start.
THE PICK
Guardians -115 (ACTION/Cecconi) at Heritage
