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MLB Pick for Tuesday: Cubs to Claw Past Braves as Dogs
We went to 6-7 with our MLB write-ups with an easy win Friday with The Miz and the Brewers, and we are now +29.40 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We return on Tuesday with a nationally televised selection in Cubs vs. Braves on TBS.
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, May 12th – 7:15pm ET
We have a play in a nationally televised contest on TBS between the teams with the two best records in the National League on Tuesday night. We are backing Colin Rae and the underdog Cubs when they pay a visit to Grant Holmes and the Braves.
Strikeouts and Groundballs Keys for Rae
The Cubs have the second-best record in the NL while leading the Central Division at 27-14, one game behind the East-leading Braves at 28-13, and they are just the second team since 1900 to have two 10-game winning streaks within their first 40 games.
Rae has been a nice contributing factor, as he is probably having his best season ever in the Major Leagues at the age of 35, and his peripherals suggest that his numbers are not a fluke. He comes in at 4-1 over eight games including five starts, and while his ERA is just a decent 4.03, his xFIP paints a difference story at 3.59.
One of the favorite combinations we like to see in any pitcher is a good strikeout rate and a good groundball rate, and Colin fits that bill. His strikeout rate is at 8.29/9 while his groundball rate is 52.1%, both of which are career highs. And a key to both of those rates is a biting slider that is also at a career best velocity while meriting an impressive Stuff+ of 104. He has also raised his swinging strike rate back up to double digits after that stood at only 9.1% last season.
What’s Up with the Control Holmes?
As for Holmes, it is reported that he is in danger of being moved to the bullpen with Martin Perez taking his rotation spot permanently, making this a very important start for him personally. Then again, he would not be in that position if he did not have such a poor command ratio, and we do not see him suddenly correcting that overnight.
Grant’s K/BB ratio stands at an eyesore of 6.99/4.30 per nine innings, making his 2-1 record through seven starts seem undeserved given his 4.34 ERA and 4.58 xFIP. Moreover, that ERA should probably be even higher as he has benefited from a .241 BABIP allowed. He also has a high hard contact rate of 37.7% that has contributed to a home run rate allowed of 1.45/9, which is a career worst so far.
It certainly does not help that he is facing a Cubs offense ranked sixth in the majors in home runs against right-handed pitchers (36), as well as seventh in OPS (.746) and fifth in wRC+ (114) against them.
We have Rae as the better rated pitcher right now, and Chicago has the offense to take advantage of the struggling Holmes propensity for giving up the long ball. Thus, we are betting on the Cubs as underdogs in this spot.
THE PICK
Cubs +114 at Heritage
We went to 6-7 with our MLB write-ups with an easy win Friday with The Miz and the Brewers, and we are now +29.40 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We return on Tuesday with a nationally televised selection in Cubs vs. Braves on TBS.
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, May 12th – 7:15pm ET
We have a play in a nationally televised contest on TBS between the teams with the two best records in the National League on Tuesday night. We are backing Colin Rae and the underdog Cubs when they pay a visit to Grant Holmes and the Braves.
Strikeouts and Groundballs Keys for Rae
The Cubs have the second-best record in the NL while leading the Central Division at 27-14, one game behind the East-leading Braves at 28-13, and they are just the second team since 1900 to have two 10-game winning streaks within their first 40 games.
Rae has been a nice contributing factor, as he is probably having his best season ever in the Major Leagues at the age of 35, and his peripherals suggest that his numbers are not a fluke. He comes in at 4-1 over eight games including five starts, and while his ERA is just a decent 4.03, his xFIP paints a difference story at 3.59.
One of the favorite combinations we like to see in any pitcher is a good strikeout rate and a good groundball rate, and Colin fits that bill. His strikeout rate is at 8.29/9 while his groundball rate is 52.1%, both of which are career highs. And a key to both of those rates is a biting slider that is also at a career best velocity while meriting an impressive Stuff+ of 104. He has also raised his swinging strike rate back up to double digits after that stood at only 9.1% last season.
What’s Up with the Control Holmes?
As for Holmes, it is reported that he is in danger of being moved to the bullpen with Martin Perez taking his rotation spot permanently, making this a very important start for him personally. Then again, he would not be in that position if he did not have such a poor command ratio, and we do not see him suddenly correcting that overnight.
Grant’s K/BB ratio stands at an eyesore of 6.99/4.30 per nine innings, making his 2-1 record through seven starts seem undeserved given his 4.34 ERA and 4.58 xFIP. Moreover, that ERA should probably be even higher as he has benefited from a .241 BABIP allowed. He also has a high hard contact rate of 37.7% that has contributed to a home run rate allowed of 1.45/9, which is a career worst so far.
It certainly does not help that he is facing a Cubs offense ranked sixth in the majors in home runs against right-handed pitchers (36), as well as seventh in OPS (.746) and fifth in wRC+ (114) against them.
We have Rae as the better rated pitcher right now, and Chicago has the offense to take advantage of the struggling Holmes propensity for giving up the long ball. Thus, we are betting on the Cubs as underdogs in this spot.
THE PICK
Cubs +114 at Heritage
