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MLB Pick for Wednesday: Royals to be Crowned Victorious with Ragans
We had our third straight winner Tuesday to get to 5-6 with our MLB write-ups, and we are now +19.29 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We are back on Wednesday with a selection in the Guardians vs. Royals matchup.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, May 6th – 7:40pm ET
We are looking for positive regression for what we feel is one of the better pitchers in baseball when he is at his best, and we are trying to get in front of that while he is still being priced reasonably. Thus, we are supporting Cole Ragans and the Royals as home favorites hosting Joey Cantillo and the Guardians.
Ragans Stuff+ Still Good
Ragans has a career 3.78 ERA, 3.57 xFIP and 10.85/9 K-Rate over a span that began with Texas in 2022, but his frontline numbers are not nearly as good through seven starts this year. He comes in with just a 1-4 record and an unsightly 5.29 ERA and 4.32 xFIP through 32.1 innings. However, he is showing signs of coming around, and his strikeout rate has actually been better than his career norm at 11.41/9.
That rate had been boosted by 25 strikeouts over 15.2 innings over his last three starts, and his average fastball velocity in the last two starts was at 95.5 MPH and 96.5 MPH respectively, up from the 94.8 MPH average for the season. And more importantly, his Stuff+ numbers have been good across the board all year, also suggesting that a return to Cole’s good form that we have been accustomed to is on the way.
He has an overall Stuff+ of 108 with four pitches out of his vast 5-pitch arsenal rated 100 or higher. The lone exception has been his cutter at 92, but that is his least frequent pitch at just 5% of the time.
And for what it is worth, only two of Ragans’ seven starts have come here at home in Kauffman Stadium, and he allowed only one earned run over those two outings with 19 strikeouts in 12 innings!
Is Cantillo for Real?
Now, Cantillo is off to a fine start with a 3.67 ERA through seven starts covering 34.1 innings, but we think he is the opposite of Ragans in that we feel some negative regression is in order. His xFIP is a bit higher at 4.03 and his regression may already be in progress after allowing four earned runs in four innings against the Athletics last time out with only two strikeouts against three walks.
Joey also has a bad soft/hard contact ratio of 13.0% / 34.8% with both of those percentages being the worst of his short 3-year career. Moreover, his fastball velocity is a career-worst 91.6 MPH, which is disturbing for someone that is still just 26 years old and with that fastball being his most frequent pitch at 44.9%. Even more alarming is the low 89 fastball Stuff+.
The southpaw is facing a Kansas City offense that has an above average wRC+ of 106 against left-handers at home while ranking eighth in the majors with an OPS of .768 in that circumstance.
This is a simple case where we think that Ragans is the superior starter when both pitchers are at their normal levels, and both of their regressions seem to be heading in that direction. We are betting on the Royals at home, as you may not be able to snag Ragans in the -120s in this spot for very much longer.
THE PICK
Royals -128 at Heritage
We had our third straight winner Tuesday to get to 5-6 with our MLB write-ups, and we are now +19.29 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We are back on Wednesday with a selection in the Guardians vs. Royals matchup.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, May 6th – 7:40pm ET
We are looking for positive regression for what we feel is one of the better pitchers in baseball when he is at his best, and we are trying to get in front of that while he is still being priced reasonably. Thus, we are supporting Cole Ragans and the Royals as home favorites hosting Joey Cantillo and the Guardians.
Ragans Stuff+ Still Good
Ragans has a career 3.78 ERA, 3.57 xFIP and 10.85/9 K-Rate over a span that began with Texas in 2022, but his frontline numbers are not nearly as good through seven starts this year. He comes in with just a 1-4 record and an unsightly 5.29 ERA and 4.32 xFIP through 32.1 innings. However, he is showing signs of coming around, and his strikeout rate has actually been better than his career norm at 11.41/9.
That rate had been boosted by 25 strikeouts over 15.2 innings over his last three starts, and his average fastball velocity in the last two starts was at 95.5 MPH and 96.5 MPH respectively, up from the 94.8 MPH average for the season. And more importantly, his Stuff+ numbers have been good across the board all year, also suggesting that a return to Cole’s good form that we have been accustomed to is on the way.
He has an overall Stuff+ of 108 with four pitches out of his vast 5-pitch arsenal rated 100 or higher. The lone exception has been his cutter at 92, but that is his least frequent pitch at just 5% of the time.
And for what it is worth, only two of Ragans’ seven starts have come here at home in Kauffman Stadium, and he allowed only one earned run over those two outings with 19 strikeouts in 12 innings!
Is Cantillo for Real?
Now, Cantillo is off to a fine start with a 3.67 ERA through seven starts covering 34.1 innings, but we think he is the opposite of Ragans in that we feel some negative regression is in order. His xFIP is a bit higher at 4.03 and his regression may already be in progress after allowing four earned runs in four innings against the Athletics last time out with only two strikeouts against three walks.
Joey also has a bad soft/hard contact ratio of 13.0% / 34.8% with both of those percentages being the worst of his short 3-year career. Moreover, his fastball velocity is a career-worst 91.6 MPH, which is disturbing for someone that is still just 26 years old and with that fastball being his most frequent pitch at 44.9%. Even more alarming is the low 89 fastball Stuff+.
The southpaw is facing a Kansas City offense that has an above average wRC+ of 106 against left-handers at home while ranking eighth in the majors with an OPS of .768 in that circumstance.
This is a simple case where we think that Ragans is the superior starter when both pitchers are at their normal levels, and both of their regressions seem to be heading in that direction. We are betting on the Royals at home, as you may not be able to snag Ragans in the -120s in this spot for very much longer.
THE PICK
Royals -128 at Heritage
