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MLB Pick for Tuesday: Brewers to Tame Tigers in Comerica Park
We fell to 1-3 in MLB with our write-ups after our loser on Friday with the Rays. We are now looking to begin our turnaround on Tuesday, where we see value with our selection on Brewers vs. Tigers from Detroit.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers
Tuesday, April 21st – 6:40pm ET
In what may be a relatively close pitching matchup, we have a play that may come down to the offensive performances of these teams against the handedness of the opposing pitchers. This has us backing the Brewers with Kyle Harrison on the mound when they visit Keider Montero and the Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit.
Harrison Primed for Breakout Season?
The southpaw Harrison was highly regarded when he came up with the Giants three years ago, but he was primarily a bust during his time in San Francisco, and they traded him to the Red Sox in the middle of last season. Nonetheless, he did finish 2025 with a commendable 3.95 xFIP in his two stops combined, while increasing his strikeout rate to a nice 9.59/9.
Now, he is off to a very nice start in his first year with the Brewers at the still young age of 24, as he is unlucky to be only 1-1 given his 3.07 ERA and career-best 3.62 xFIP so far. He is still striking out over one batter per inning with the K-Rate at 9.20/9, but more importantly he has reduced his walk rate to a more acceptable 2.45/9 after his wildness curtailed any progress over his first three seasons in the Major Leagues.
And his advanced peripherals suggest that his improvement is sustainable, as he is at career highs thus far while being clearly above average in Stuff+ (106), Pitching+ (116) and most notably Location+ (115). Not only has the improved location accounted for the fewer walks, but it has also helped maintain a double-digit swinging strike rate of 11.5%.
Furthermore, the southpaw gets to face a Detroit offense that has struggled with left-handed pitching early on. The Tigers rank only 19th in wRC+ against lefties at 86 (or 14% below average) and they rank 22nd in OPS against them (.630).
Montero Must Deal with Better Offense
Montero is also showing improvement in his third year in the majors after posting ERAs and xFIPs in the 4.00s his first two seasons. The right-hander is another pitcher that probably deserves a better record than 1-1, as he currently owns a 3.31 ERA and 3.59 xFIP. He has a very good K-Rate of 8.27/9 and an excellent walk rate of only 1.10/9 after that figure was an alarming 3.08/9 over 90.2 innings last season.
But while Keider may also be maturing at the age of 25, his Stuff+ is still below average at 93. He is also coming off his worst start of the year where he allowed four earned runs in six innings against the Royals after allowing two earned runs over his first two starts combined. Thus, the jury is still out on whether his first two starts were “real” or if he will regress to the mediocre form of his first two seasons.
In either case, he has the tougher matchup here against a Milwaukee offense that has shined against right-handers this year, ranking seventh in both wRC+ (114) and OPS (.755) against them.
We see this as a potentially close pitching matchup, although we do think Harrison has more upside, given the Stuff+ numbers. But we think that Milwaukee has a big edge on offense, which has us betting on the Brewers as tiny dogs in this spot.
THE PICK
Brewers +102 at Heritage
We fell to 1-3 in MLB with our write-ups after our loser on Friday with the Rays. We are now looking to begin our turnaround on Tuesday, where we see value with our selection on Brewers vs. Tigers from Detroit.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers
Tuesday, April 21st – 6:40pm ET
In what may be a relatively close pitching matchup, we have a play that may come down to the offensive performances of these teams against the handedness of the opposing pitchers. This has us backing the Brewers with Kyle Harrison on the mound when they visit Keider Montero and the Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit.
Harrison Primed for Breakout Season?
The southpaw Harrison was highly regarded when he came up with the Giants three years ago, but he was primarily a bust during his time in San Francisco, and they traded him to the Red Sox in the middle of last season. Nonetheless, he did finish 2025 with a commendable 3.95 xFIP in his two stops combined, while increasing his strikeout rate to a nice 9.59/9.
Now, he is off to a very nice start in his first year with the Brewers at the still young age of 24, as he is unlucky to be only 1-1 given his 3.07 ERA and career-best 3.62 xFIP so far. He is still striking out over one batter per inning with the K-Rate at 9.20/9, but more importantly he has reduced his walk rate to a more acceptable 2.45/9 after his wildness curtailed any progress over his first three seasons in the Major Leagues.
And his advanced peripherals suggest that his improvement is sustainable, as he is at career highs thus far while being clearly above average in Stuff+ (106), Pitching+ (116) and most notably Location+ (115). Not only has the improved location accounted for the fewer walks, but it has also helped maintain a double-digit swinging strike rate of 11.5%.
Furthermore, the southpaw gets to face a Detroit offense that has struggled with left-handed pitching early on. The Tigers rank only 19th in wRC+ against lefties at 86 (or 14% below average) and they rank 22nd in OPS against them (.630).
Montero Must Deal with Better Offense
Montero is also showing improvement in his third year in the majors after posting ERAs and xFIPs in the 4.00s his first two seasons. The right-hander is another pitcher that probably deserves a better record than 1-1, as he currently owns a 3.31 ERA and 3.59 xFIP. He has a very good K-Rate of 8.27/9 and an excellent walk rate of only 1.10/9 after that figure was an alarming 3.08/9 over 90.2 innings last season.
But while Keider may also be maturing at the age of 25, his Stuff+ is still below average at 93. He is also coming off his worst start of the year where he allowed four earned runs in six innings against the Royals after allowing two earned runs over his first two starts combined. Thus, the jury is still out on whether his first two starts were “real” or if he will regress to the mediocre form of his first two seasons.
In either case, he has the tougher matchup here against a Milwaukee offense that has shined against right-handers this year, ranking seventh in both wRC+ (114) and OPS (.755) against them.
We see this as a potentially close pitching matchup, although we do think Harrison has more upside, given the Stuff+ numbers. But we think that Milwaukee has a big edge on offense, which has us betting on the Brewers as tiny dogs in this spot.
THE PICK
Brewers +102 at Heritage
