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MLB Pick for Wednesday: Mariners Sail Past Padres in San Diego
We are 1-1 in MLB with our write-ups after a loser on Tuesday that snapped our 12-game All Sports winning streak. We are back Wednesday with a late-night west coast play in Mariners vs. Padres at Petco Park.
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, April 15th – 9:40pm ET
We have a late matchup on Tuesday between two pitchers that have both exceeded preseason expectations in the early going. However, we only think one of them will maintain their hot start and we are backing Emerson Hancock and the Mariners when they visit Randy Vasquez and the Padres at Petco Park in San Diego.
New Pitch-Mix Suiting Hancock Well
Hancock posted ERAs in the 4.00s in each of his first three seasons in the Major Leagues, with his career-best xFIP being an ordinary 4.62 last year. However, he has been sensational in his first three starts this season, going 2-1 with a spiffy 2.04 ERA and 2.86 xFIP. He has also abolished his previous bests so far in both strikeout rate at 9.68/9 (previous best 6.40/9) and walk rate at 1.53/9 (best 2.25/9 his rookie year).
All of this begs the question of whether this improvement is “real” or if Emerson will come crashing back to earth very soon. Well, the encouraging thing that we like is the improvement has come with an entirely new pitch mix. Besides adding a new cutter that now gives him a nice 5-pitch arsenal, he has gone away from relying on his sinker, which was his more thrown pitch last year at 39.1% of the time followed by his fastball well back at 25.7%.
He has thrown more hard stuff this year, with his fastball leading the way at 40.1% and his slider at 27.7%, drastically cutting the use of his sinker to 16.1%. The Sabermetrics bear out that this is a shrewd move for Hancock, as he has had one of the best sliders in baseball this season per Stuff+ with a fat rating of 122, while his fastball is rated 104. And most shockingly of all, he is currently fifth best in the majors with his overall Pitching + of 107!
Vasquez Bigger Candidate for Regression
Vasquez also has great frontline stats, as while he is only 1-0, he is sporting a scintillating 1.02 ERA through three starts covering 17.2 innings. Now, some may say that he showed signs of a potential breakout last season when he finished with a 3.84 ERA through 133.2 innings, but we do not share that belief due to his ugly accompanying 5.51 xFIP. That latter figure was mostly the result of a very weak K/BB ratio of 5.25/3.50 per nine innings.
But, like Hancock, Randy has also greatly improved his command early on with his K/BB ratio currently standing at 9.68/2.04 per nine. However, what we do not see is a legitimate reason his swinging strike rate has jumped to 14.3% from 6.7% in 2025 while his underlying Stuff+ numbers and his velocity have not changed much across the board.
Moreover, if you take away the sudden rise in strikeouts, batters are still hitting Vasquez hard when they make contact, with his soft/hard contact ratio at a poor 11.1% / 44.4%. And that is not to mention his ridiculously lucky 96.3% strand rate. This tells us that his ERA should rise once his seemingly unsustainable swinging strike rate and strand rate normalize.
Thus, we think Hancock’s improvement is legitimate with his new pitch-mix, while Vasquez has been the luckier of these two hurlers. This has us betting on the Mariners on the road Wednesday.
THE PICK
Mariners -102 at Bet105
We are 1-1 in MLB with our write-ups after a loser on Tuesday that snapped our 12-game All Sports winning streak. We are back Wednesday with a late-night west coast play in Mariners vs. Padres at Petco Park.
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, April 15th – 9:40pm ET
We have a late matchup on Tuesday between two pitchers that have both exceeded preseason expectations in the early going. However, we only think one of them will maintain their hot start and we are backing Emerson Hancock and the Mariners when they visit Randy Vasquez and the Padres at Petco Park in San Diego.
New Pitch-Mix Suiting Hancock Well
Hancock posted ERAs in the 4.00s in each of his first three seasons in the Major Leagues, with his career-best xFIP being an ordinary 4.62 last year. However, he has been sensational in his first three starts this season, going 2-1 with a spiffy 2.04 ERA and 2.86 xFIP. He has also abolished his previous bests so far in both strikeout rate at 9.68/9 (previous best 6.40/9) and walk rate at 1.53/9 (best 2.25/9 his rookie year).
All of this begs the question of whether this improvement is “real” or if Emerson will come crashing back to earth very soon. Well, the encouraging thing that we like is the improvement has come with an entirely new pitch mix. Besides adding a new cutter that now gives him a nice 5-pitch arsenal, he has gone away from relying on his sinker, which was his more thrown pitch last year at 39.1% of the time followed by his fastball well back at 25.7%.
He has thrown more hard stuff this year, with his fastball leading the way at 40.1% and his slider at 27.7%, drastically cutting the use of his sinker to 16.1%. The Sabermetrics bear out that this is a shrewd move for Hancock, as he has had one of the best sliders in baseball this season per Stuff+ with a fat rating of 122, while his fastball is rated 104. And most shockingly of all, he is currently fifth best in the majors with his overall Pitching + of 107!
Vasquez Bigger Candidate for Regression
Vasquez also has great frontline stats, as while he is only 1-0, he is sporting a scintillating 1.02 ERA through three starts covering 17.2 innings. Now, some may say that he showed signs of a potential breakout last season when he finished with a 3.84 ERA through 133.2 innings, but we do not share that belief due to his ugly accompanying 5.51 xFIP. That latter figure was mostly the result of a very weak K/BB ratio of 5.25/3.50 per nine innings.
But, like Hancock, Randy has also greatly improved his command early on with his K/BB ratio currently standing at 9.68/2.04 per nine. However, what we do not see is a legitimate reason his swinging strike rate has jumped to 14.3% from 6.7% in 2025 while his underlying Stuff+ numbers and his velocity have not changed much across the board.
Moreover, if you take away the sudden rise in strikeouts, batters are still hitting Vasquez hard when they make contact, with his soft/hard contact ratio at a poor 11.1% / 44.4%. And that is not to mention his ridiculously lucky 96.3% strand rate. This tells us that his ERA should rise once his seemingly unsustainable swinging strike rate and strand rate normalize.
Thus, we think Hancock’s improvement is legitimate with his new pitch-mix, while Vasquez has been the luckier of these two hurlers. This has us betting on the Mariners on the road Wednesday.
THE PICK
Mariners -102 at Bet105
