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NCAA Tournament Pick for Friday: Tennessee to Volunteer a Cover Against Cyclones
We went 3-0 last week in the NCAA Tournament with our write-ups, making us 51-41-2 across All Sports with one play pending Thursday. We now have a play for Friday in the late Tennessee vs. Iowa State matchup on TBS.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Friday, March 27th – 10:10pm ET
We have a nice 6-seed vs. 2-seed matchup from the Midwest Region for the final game of the Friday card. And we are staying up late and taking the points with sixth seeded Tennessee when they take on second seeded Iowa State in Chicago.
Iowa State Trap Can Be Broken?
Before proceeding with our analysis here, please note that we bet on Tennessee at +4.5 -108 earlier in the week when Iowa State star Joshua Jefferson was listed as a gametime decision. Well, he still has that status as of this writing but there is now a lot of Tennessee +3.5 in the market, which is an indication that Jefferson may miss his second straight game with a sprained ankle, or possibly play limited minutes with the ankle not fully healed.
A missing or hobbled Jefferson would be a big blow as he is the Cyclones’ leading rebounder while ranking second on the team in both scoring and assists. Now, with a healthy roster, Iowa State is 29-7 and ranked seventh overall on Kenpom. They are extremely well balanced, ranking 17th in offensive efficiency and 16th in eFG%, while simultaneously ranking fifth in defensive efficiency while applying great pressure, rating fourth in turnover percentage forced.
However, Tennessee has an excellent backcourt with point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie leading the team in both points and assists, and a two-guard in Bishop Boswell that effective acts as a second point guard, ranking second on the Vols in assists. Having tandem guards on the court that can effectively distribute the basketball sounds like the best way to beat an Iowa State trap that has frustrated many teams this year.
Abundance of Second Chances for Vols
We thought that Tennessee was a dangerous 6-seed coming into the tournament, and their win over third seeded Virginia on Sunday was not even considered an upset, as the Volunteers closed as favorites at -1.5. Moreover, like Iowa State, Tennessee is also well-balanced while ranking 31st in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency.
Also, the Vols should dominate this game in the second chance department. For starters, Iowa State’s constant trapping often leaves the Cyclones vulnerable to allowing offensive rebounds, and there has been nobody in the country better at getting those this year than Tennessee. They lead the land in offensive rebounding percentage at 44.8%, smashing the national average of 30.6%! And remember that ISU could be without their best rebounder in Jefferson.
Now, we still think that the Vols will have a huge edge in second-chance points even if Jefferson plays his normal minutes with little discomfort. But it does boost our confidence that we do not think the latter will happen, so we bet on Tennessee as underdogs with an outright upset far from impossible.
THE PICK
Tennessee +4 -112 at Bet105
We went 3-0 last week in the NCAA Tournament with our write-ups, making us 51-41-2 across All Sports with one play pending Thursday. We now have a play for Friday in the late Tennessee vs. Iowa State matchup on TBS.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Friday, March 27th – 10:10pm ET
We have a nice 6-seed vs. 2-seed matchup from the Midwest Region for the final game of the Friday card. And we are staying up late and taking the points with sixth seeded Tennessee when they take on second seeded Iowa State in Chicago.
Iowa State Trap Can Be Broken?
Before proceeding with our analysis here, please note that we bet on Tennessee at +4.5 -108 earlier in the week when Iowa State star Joshua Jefferson was listed as a gametime decision. Well, he still has that status as of this writing but there is now a lot of Tennessee +3.5 in the market, which is an indication that Jefferson may miss his second straight game with a sprained ankle, or possibly play limited minutes with the ankle not fully healed.
A missing or hobbled Jefferson would be a big blow as he is the Cyclones’ leading rebounder while ranking second on the team in both scoring and assists. Now, with a healthy roster, Iowa State is 29-7 and ranked seventh overall on Kenpom. They are extremely well balanced, ranking 17th in offensive efficiency and 16th in eFG%, while simultaneously ranking fifth in defensive efficiency while applying great pressure, rating fourth in turnover percentage forced.
However, Tennessee has an excellent backcourt with point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie leading the team in both points and assists, and a two-guard in Bishop Boswell that effective acts as a second point guard, ranking second on the Vols in assists. Having tandem guards on the court that can effectively distribute the basketball sounds like the best way to beat an Iowa State trap that has frustrated many teams this year.
Abundance of Second Chances for Vols
We thought that Tennessee was a dangerous 6-seed coming into the tournament, and their win over third seeded Virginia on Sunday was not even considered an upset, as the Volunteers closed as favorites at -1.5. Moreover, like Iowa State, Tennessee is also well-balanced while ranking 31st in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency.
Also, the Vols should dominate this game in the second chance department. For starters, Iowa State’s constant trapping often leaves the Cyclones vulnerable to allowing offensive rebounds, and there has been nobody in the country better at getting those this year than Tennessee. They lead the land in offensive rebounding percentage at 44.8%, smashing the national average of 30.6%! And remember that ISU could be without their best rebounder in Jefferson.
Now, we still think that the Vols will have a huge edge in second-chance points even if Jefferson plays his normal minutes with little discomfort. But it does boost our confidence that we do not think the latter will happen, so we bet on Tennessee as underdogs with an outright upset far from impossible.
THE PICK
Tennessee +4 -112 at Bet105
