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NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Cowboys to Ride Past Buffaloes in Kansas City
We had a miserable NCAA Basketball regular season, although we are still over .500 at 46-41-2 across All Sports with our write-ups. Hopefully the conference tournaments will treat us better, and we have a play in the Big 12 Tournament on Tuesday for Oklahoma State vs. Colorado on ESPN+.
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Tuesday, March 10th – 9:30pm ET
The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday at Kemper Arena in Kansas City, and while many may dismiss a matchup between a 14-seed and an 11-seed, we see value on lower seeded Oklahoma State getting a couple of points from Colorado on ESPN+.
Cowboys Play Fast
Oklahoma State had a promising start this season, going 12-1 in non-conference play with four wins against teams currently rated in the Top 66 on Kenpom, with two of those coming in semi-away games. Sadly, that did not translate well in conference play, where they went just 6-12 to finish 18-13 overall. Still, they ended up with a winning 18-13 record overall and are ranked 69th on Kenpom, which is commendable for a 14-seed.
These teams are practically even in efficiencies, with the Cowboys 56th in offensive efficiency and the Buffaloes 55th, and Oklahoma State 116th in defensive efficiency while Colorado is 115th. However, the Cowboys have done it with more volume, as they are ninth in the country in Tempo Rating at 72.2. And they have done a good job at ball protection despite the frenetic pace with a better than average turnover percentage of 16.3% (national average 16.8%).
Granted, Oklahoma State lost the regular season meeting between these teams 83-69 at Colorado in a 72-possession game that would normally suit OSU’s style. However, the Cowboys committed 15 turnovers in that game which represented a whopping 20.8% of their possessions. That was atypical of both sides, as besides Oklahoma State usually being good with the basketball, the Buffaloes do not apply much pressure ranking 249th in turnover percentage forced!
Buffaloes Don’t Travel Well
Colorado has the worse overall record of these two teams at just 17-14, but they earned the higher seed by finishing one game above the Cowboys in the Big 12 Standings at 7-11. However, their overall scoring average of 79.3 points per game is more than four points lower than Oklahoma State’s lofty average of 83.9 points, which makes sense with both teams being close in efficiency but the Cowboys taking more shots at the faster pace.
However, while Oklahoma State at least had a couple of nice semi-away wins against good teams (#60 Grand Canyon, #66 Northwestern), the Buffaloes have not travelled well while going 2-8 on the road with one of those wins coming against 126th ranked Utah. Furthermore, if Oklahoma State was able to get the first meeting to their preferred tempo in Colorado, we see no reason why the same thing cannot happen here in neutral territory.
Given that Colorado has struggled on the road and the expected turnover regression in the Cowboys’ favor from the first meeting, we see OSU winning this game outright. Still, our official play is betting on Oklahoma State +2 for the added insurance.
THE PICK
Oklahoma State +2 -108 at Heritage
We had a miserable NCAA Basketball regular season, although we are still over .500 at 46-41-2 across All Sports with our write-ups. Hopefully the conference tournaments will treat us better, and we have a play in the Big 12 Tournament on Tuesday for Oklahoma State vs. Colorado on ESPN+.
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Tuesday, March 10th – 9:30pm ET
The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday at Kemper Arena in Kansas City, and while many may dismiss a matchup between a 14-seed and an 11-seed, we see value on lower seeded Oklahoma State getting a couple of points from Colorado on ESPN+.
Cowboys Play Fast
Oklahoma State had a promising start this season, going 12-1 in non-conference play with four wins against teams currently rated in the Top 66 on Kenpom, with two of those coming in semi-away games. Sadly, that did not translate well in conference play, where they went just 6-12 to finish 18-13 overall. Still, they ended up with a winning 18-13 record overall and are ranked 69th on Kenpom, which is commendable for a 14-seed.
These teams are practically even in efficiencies, with the Cowboys 56th in offensive efficiency and the Buffaloes 55th, and Oklahoma State 116th in defensive efficiency while Colorado is 115th. However, the Cowboys have done it with more volume, as they are ninth in the country in Tempo Rating at 72.2. And they have done a good job at ball protection despite the frenetic pace with a better than average turnover percentage of 16.3% (national average 16.8%).
Granted, Oklahoma State lost the regular season meeting between these teams 83-69 at Colorado in a 72-possession game that would normally suit OSU’s style. However, the Cowboys committed 15 turnovers in that game which represented a whopping 20.8% of their possessions. That was atypical of both sides, as besides Oklahoma State usually being good with the basketball, the Buffaloes do not apply much pressure ranking 249th in turnover percentage forced!
Buffaloes Don’t Travel Well
Colorado has the worse overall record of these two teams at just 17-14, but they earned the higher seed by finishing one game above the Cowboys in the Big 12 Standings at 7-11. However, their overall scoring average of 79.3 points per game is more than four points lower than Oklahoma State’s lofty average of 83.9 points, which makes sense with both teams being close in efficiency but the Cowboys taking more shots at the faster pace.
However, while Oklahoma State at least had a couple of nice semi-away wins against good teams (#60 Grand Canyon, #66 Northwestern), the Buffaloes have not travelled well while going 2-8 on the road with one of those wins coming against 126th ranked Utah. Furthermore, if Oklahoma State was able to get the first meeting to their preferred tempo in Colorado, we see no reason why the same thing cannot happen here in neutral territory.
Given that Colorado has struggled on the road and the expected turnover regression in the Cowboys’ favor from the first meeting, we see OSU winning this game outright. Still, our official play is betting on Oklahoma State +2 for the added insurance.
THE PICK
Oklahoma State +2 -108 at Heritage
