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NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Slow Pace for Buffaloes and Utes in Salt Lake City
We are 46-38-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after winning our NCAA Basketball pick Thursday. We have a play in a lower tier Big 12 matchup for Tuesday in Colorado at Utah available on ESPN+.
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Utah Utes
Tuesday, March 3rd – 9:00pm ET
Although it is not one of the higher profile matchups on the Tuesday card, we do see value on the total in a matchup of two bottom-5 teams in the Big 12. We are backing the Under when Utah hosts Colorado in Salt Lake City on ESPN+.
Utes to Successfully Slow Pace
This has been a lost season for Utah, as they come in with a 10-19 record and sit tied with Kansas State for dead last in the conference at 2-14. That is what happens when you rank 256th in the country in scoring at 74.5 points per game, and even that average is deceptive after feasting on an easy non-conference schedule. The scoring average has plummeted to 69.1 PPG against Big 12 opponents!
Now, some of that low scoring is self-inflicted due to playing at a methodical pace, as the Utes are 232nd nationally in Tempo Rating. And we anticipate they will try to continue that plodding tempo here as that may be their best chance to steal a victory in what looks like a winnable game, as evidenced by this line sitting at Pick at many shops as of this writing.
Most importantly though, we think that the Utes will be successful in achieving that goal as they do not figure to face much pressure. That is because while Colorado is better than average in defensive efficiency at 106.3 (national average 109.5), the Buffaloes are only 250th in turnover percentage forced. Thus, we are looking for a lot of long possessions for the Utes resulting in them not getting out of the 60s tonight.
Colorado Offense Exposed in Conference
Colorado has a winning record of 16-11 overall while ranking a commendable 58th nationally in offensive efficiency at 117.8 and averaging a decent 79.6 points per game. However, just like Utah, the Buffaloes have taken a hit offensively since the start of Big 12 play.
They sit 12th in the 16-team league with a 6-10 mark while ranking 14th in the conference in offensive efficiency at a scant 103.9. And while their conference scoring average of 74.2 points is better than Utah’s, that average is still more than five points lower than their overall average. More importantly, the Buffs may not even reach those 74 points if the Utes are as successful as we expect in slowing the pace of this game down to a crawl.
Given that anticipated pace, we see this game topping out at 140 points or so, which is eight points lower than the currently available posted total. Therefore, we are betting on the Under in Utah on Tuesday.
THE PICK
Under 148 -108 at Heritage
We are 46-38-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after winning our NCAA Basketball pick Thursday. We have a play in a lower tier Big 12 matchup for Tuesday in Colorado at Utah available on ESPN+.
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Utah Utes
Tuesday, March 3rd – 9:00pm ET
Although it is not one of the higher profile matchups on the Tuesday card, we do see value on the total in a matchup of two bottom-5 teams in the Big 12. We are backing the Under when Utah hosts Colorado in Salt Lake City on ESPN+.
Utes to Successfully Slow Pace
This has been a lost season for Utah, as they come in with a 10-19 record and sit tied with Kansas State for dead last in the conference at 2-14. That is what happens when you rank 256th in the country in scoring at 74.5 points per game, and even that average is deceptive after feasting on an easy non-conference schedule. The scoring average has plummeted to 69.1 PPG against Big 12 opponents!
Now, some of that low scoring is self-inflicted due to playing at a methodical pace, as the Utes are 232nd nationally in Tempo Rating. And we anticipate they will try to continue that plodding tempo here as that may be their best chance to steal a victory in what looks like a winnable game, as evidenced by this line sitting at Pick at many shops as of this writing.
Most importantly though, we think that the Utes will be successful in achieving that goal as they do not figure to face much pressure. That is because while Colorado is better than average in defensive efficiency at 106.3 (national average 109.5), the Buffaloes are only 250th in turnover percentage forced. Thus, we are looking for a lot of long possessions for the Utes resulting in them not getting out of the 60s tonight.
Colorado Offense Exposed in Conference
Colorado has a winning record of 16-11 overall while ranking a commendable 58th nationally in offensive efficiency at 117.8 and averaging a decent 79.6 points per game. However, just like Utah, the Buffaloes have taken a hit offensively since the start of Big 12 play.
They sit 12th in the 16-team league with a 6-10 mark while ranking 14th in the conference in offensive efficiency at a scant 103.9. And while their conference scoring average of 74.2 points is better than Utah’s, that average is still more than five points lower than their overall average. More importantly, the Buffs may not even reach those 74 points if the Utes are as successful as we expect in slowing the pace of this game down to a crawl.
Given that anticipated pace, we see this game topping out at 140 points or so, which is eight points lower than the currently available posted total. Therefore, we are betting on the Under in Utah on Tuesday.
THE PICK
Under 148 -108 at Heritage
