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JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
Oh KVB, KVB, KVB....

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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
Does the chances/odds of that changing today play any factor at all in trading decisions?

Not necessarily.

There is a "due factor" in a sense but it's hard to say what's due. I'm looking more at the scheduling, timing, and then swings within the game.

Initially the white board has potential Upsets, but once the game start and the chips start falling that board will change.

Have to sort of forget about yesterday and not chase an Upset.

Notice the last two days I didn't trade the later games. It's easy to chase that Upset and the last two years have burned bettors doing just that.

Sort of a fresh slate each day, I say sort because the previos games do matter when matching up the teams, but leaning too much on the plus/minus Over/Under count can be like blinders on a horse.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
Does the chances/odds of that changing today play any factor at all in trading decisions?
Sort of a fresh slate each day, I say sort because the previos games do matter when matching up the teams, but leaning too much on the plus/minus Over/Under count can be like blinders on a horse.

Because the way the favorites fell yesterday we have a lot of situations where the dog should be covering, or we would expect them to, but not necessarily win.

But yesterday's games don't show up again until Sunday.

So today it looks a little different as we're dealing with the aftermath of Thursday, where dogs did much better against the spread and ml.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
That structure shows up in the weekend.

Thursday's game are playing out today, with Friday's tomorrow.

We're all still in the same cities as the previous days, but that changes after this week.
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
St. Louis is dangerous and if they can knock of Michigan that would help the Florida future.

Not ready to trade this first game, it's a bit in isolation as it should be over before the next game starts.

Trying to game out the morning I may be trading that TCU/Duke game, from what I can see.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
This just feels like one of those late Fridays in the sportsbook where anyone chasing an upset finds themselves on a team they don't want that is letting them down against a top team.

...But in the end, I think we see some upsets this weekend, but perhaps not tonight...

The first part of this post aged well, let's see if we can sniff out the dog this weekend.
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
Looking at Louisville.

Trying to get the market on a dip on the 6.5 spread, but not totally committed here. The Lab is not as bullish on L'ville as we'd like to be at the Trading Desk.

We do see a L'ville bump in the game, but not sure it lasts.

Perhaps it's still too early in the day. To be jumping in, it seems more speculative than the certainty we like at the Trading Desk.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
I have just enough here to keep me off this Louisville play.

That sucks, can't win if I don't get into the market.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
I have just enough here to keep me off this Louisville play.

That sucks, can't win if I don't get into the market.

This line went into range and I filled an existing limit order. I didn't think it would get there.

I have picked up Louisville +6.5 @ .55 cents.

Taking the early risk here.
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
L'ville with a 4-0 lead.

We're getting that bump.

Hopefully that's not the end of it.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
KVB get a protein drink for the long day

Man that L'ville moneyline got cheap at under .20 cents.

Not really looking to trade that ml but it's not abad idea to dip in.

:popcorn:
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
Picked up Louisville ml @ .18 cents.

Going to take a chance here.
 
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