Does the chances/odds of that changing today play any factor at all in trading decisions?
Not necessarily.
There is a "due factor" in a sense but it's hard to say what's due. I'm looking more at the scheduling, timing, and then swings within the game.
Initially the white board has potential Upsets, but once the game start and the chips start falling that board will change.
Have to sort of forget about yesterday and not chase an Upset.
Notice the last two days I didn't trade the later games. It's easy to chase that Upset and the last two years have burned bettors doing just that.
Sort of a fresh slate each day, I say sort because the previos games do matter when matching up the teams, but leaning too much on the plus/minus Over/Under count can be like blinders on a horse.