Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 66 – Duke 55
NCAAB Pick: Virginia Tech -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The best sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for tonight’s college basketball action between Duke and Virginia Tech.
Duke is coming off an intense two-point home victory against Miami. The Hokies, meanwhile, are coming off yet another loss, a one-point defeat to Clemson. They will be determined to end their seven-game losing streak tonight against a Duke team learning to win on the road.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play both the spread and the total for your NCAAB picks.
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Monday, January 23, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Cassell Coliseum
Virginia Tech's Losing Streak
The Hokies might seem worth fading because of their ongoing seven-game losing streak, but this would be a mistake because the losing streak's significance is overstated.
Virginia Tech had to play four of those games without key shooter and top perimeter defender Hunter Cattoor.
With Cattoor back for its last two games, Virginia Tech had to play on the road against the ACC's two leading teams, Virginia and Clemson.
Duke's Struggles at Virginia Tech
In view of its crowd noise, features like its lighting, and other reasons, Virginia Tech's home venue can be a scary place to play.
Duke must think so: the Blue Devils have lost 4 of their last 5 games in Blacksburg.
Duke squads were much better than this year's loss in Cassell Coliseum.
Duke's Road Struggles
The Blue Devils are mostly young and inexperienced, ranking 290th in D-I experience. As such, they are still learning to win on the road.
In ACC play, they are 1-3 in away games. They lost at Wake Forest, NC State, and Clemson by eight or more points. The one win was a nail-biter at lowly Boston College.
Considering Duke's historical struggles in Blacksburg and its ongoing difficulty on the road yields a negative outlook for the team.
Duke's Interior Defense
A common feature of Duke's road losses has been the inside-scoring success of its opposing frontcourt.
For Wake Forest, bigs Matthew Marsh and Andrew Carr were highly efficient against Duke.
Duke let NC State center DJ Burns achieve his highest-scoring total of the season. And, most recently, Clemson's PJ Hall put up 26 points on the Blue Devils' defense.
Virginia Tech's Offensive Focus
The Hokies' offense has cultivated a reputation for prioritizing three-point attempts. Last year, this reputation was statistically supported.
If this reputation were justified, then a Duke defense that stymied Iowa and Pittsburgh perimeter attacks could be said to have a positive outlook tonight. But this year's Hokies' squad is attempting three-pointers at a vastly lower rate than last season's.
With a focus on scoring at the rim and a general increase in two-point attempts, especially mid-range jumpers, Virginia Tech has the conference's third-highest point distribution from two. By, for example, drawing the opposing center away from the basket, Virginia Tech will clear room inside for guards like Sean Pedulla to attack the basket.
Justyn Mutts has also improved his two-point jumper efficiency to become a more frequent asset in the mid-range.
Mutts and Basile
Virginia Tech has the personnel to prolong this trend of successful inside scoring against Duke.
The Hokies' power forward/center, Grant Basile, takes the highest ratio of shots on the team. Basile is a productive post player who scores 63.8% of his attempts from the basket. While Basile also poses a threat from behind the arc with his 38.5% three-point shooting, Mutts is arguably more versatile.
Supported by his driving ability and shooting stroke, Mutts is efficient from the mid-range, behind the arc, and at the rim. As evident in his high assist rate, Mutts is also a skilled and highly aware passer, displaying a chemistry with his opponents that alleviates any concern over his interior running mate Keve Aluma's offseason departure. Mutts' steal and block rates provide proof of his value in Virginia Tech's team defense.
Individually, Basile is a highly-ranked shot-blocker. On both sides of the court, Basile and Mutts help Virginia Tech have an edge on Duke in the interior.
Opposing Assists
Virginia Tech does a very good job of limiting opposing assists. This inclination to force opposing ball-handlers to score themselves is valuable against a Duke team that is led offensively by center Kyle Filipowski, who depends on assists for over half of his shots.
One thing that Virginia Tech does well is defending against the pick-and-roll. As one can see with 15 minutes left in the first half against North Carolina and otherwise, Hokies defenders are committed to stopping the roller on the pick-and-roll.
A defender is there to intercept any pass to the roller while other defenders are positioned to tag the roller in case he should receive a pass.
Statistically speaking, Duke's three-point shooting has been atrocious (and this is often especially true in its road games), yet it will also struggle to score inside tonight.
The Verdict
Virginia Tech will rely primarily on inside scoring to prolong Duke's road woes.
For your best bets, expect a poor Duke shooting and Hokies' interior defending to help keep the game lower-scoring.
For Virginia Tech fans looking to bet on this game, you can do it at any of our top US sports betting sites.
Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 66 - Duke 55
NCAAB Pick: Virginia Tech -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
NCAAB Pick: Under 138 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
