WNBA Matchup Preview for May 16: Fade Bueckers While You Can
-
Jason Lake
- May 14, 2025
Top WNBA Pick: Minnesota Lynx -7.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
In the very wise words of KRS-One, you must learn. Paige Bueckers is one of the most popular college basketball players of all time – women or men – and the clear No. 1 pick for the Dallas Wings at the 2025 WNBA Draft. Will Bueckers make an immediate impact and push Dallas (9-31 SU, 13-27 ATS last year) into the playoffs, just like Caitlin Clark did for the 2024 Indiana Fever?
Maybe. But there is most definitely a learning curve up ahead; Bueckers and the Wings host the Minnesota Lynx (37-15 SU, 33-18-1 ATS including playoffs) for Friday’s season opener, with Minnesota laying eight points on the early overseas WNBA lines. The Lynx won the Western Conference last year, and nearly won the title – yet they’re still undervalued in the betting market, judging by the basketball futures at press time.
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings
Friday, May 16, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at College Park Center
Is Paige Bueckers the Next Caitlin Clark?
Not really. They may be a pair of 6-foot point guards from Flyover Country, and former Wooden Award winners as the most outstanding women in college hoops, but the media hype surrounding Clark has been off the charts compared to any other WNBA player. Even Clark’s longtime archrival, Angel Reese, has gotten more pub than Bueckers in recent years.
Having said that, Bueckers still has one of the largest social media followings of any athlete anywhere. “Paige Buckets” was reportedly the first women’s college basketball player to reach 1 million followers on Instagram, which she achieved back in 2022 before Clark took over the headlines. Bueckers was also the first college athlete to have her own shoe: the Nike GT Hustle 3.
It’s certainly possible Bueckers can replicate what Clark did for Indiana last year, but the Wings have a larger mountain to climb. They finished 2024 with four fewer wins than the 2023 Fever, plus they have to compete in the tougher West. Mistakes will be made while Bueckers and her Dallas teammates – minus two-time All-Star forward Satou Sabally (now with Phoenix) – get their feet wet.
WNBA 2025 Championship Winner Odds
| Team | Price | Offered by |
|---|---|---|
| New York Liberty | +225 | |
| Indiana Fever | +250 | |
| Las Vegas Aces | +300 | |
| Minnesota Lynx | +400 | |
| Phoenix Mercury | +800 | |
| Los Angeles Sparks | +3500 | |
| Seattle Storm | +4500 |
Will the Lynx Reach the Finals Again?
They’ve got the best chance of anyone in the West. That’s according to the WNBA Basketball Power Index numbers at ESPN; they have the Lynx pegged second overall at 29.4 projected wins, behind only the defending champion New York Liberty at 31.2 wins (Dallas is seventh at 21.1).
Yet the WNBA futures at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) have the Lynx in fourth place at +800 to win their first title since 2017. That’s behind the Liberty (+225) and the Fever (+250), and even the Las Vegas Aces (+300), whom ESPN has projected to win 27.4 games this year.
Minnesota’s betting value comes from multiple sources. It helps that casual bettors are overloading on Clark and the Fever (23.8 projected wins), and on that Aces team representing Vegas. Meanwhile, the Lynx are very much a small-market commodity despite the presence of MVP candidate Napheesa Collier, like Bueckers a former mainstay with the UConn Huskies, but without the same hype.
While Collier weaves her magic flipping between the 3 and the 4, Diamond Miller will try to re-establish herself in the Lynx backcourt after getting hurt last year and slipping behind Bridget Carleton at the 2-spot. Miller’s drives to the rim are a much-needed complement to Minnesota’s outside shooting, and they just might put the Lynx over the top in 2025.
The Pick
Has there ever been a better time for sharps to pound the WNBA odds board? Betting handle has grown by leaps and bounds with the arrival of notable players like Clark and Reese; likewise, Bueckers is almost certainly skewing the early lines too far towards Dallas, making the overlooked Lynx our easy choice for Friday’s opener.
Bet accordingly.
WNBA Pick: Minnesota Lynx -7.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
