WNBA Best Caitlin Clark Prop Bets May 20: It’s Gotta Be the Under

You’ve heard of the Caitlin Clark Effect. You might even be here because of it. Millions of dollars have already been thrown at Clark and the Indiana Fever as they launch her sophomore WNBA campaign; according to the league’s own report, the Fever have drawn “roughly 80%” of the betting handle on the 2025 WNBA championship futures market, driving them all the way from +2500 on the opening Vegas lines to +320 second favorites at Bovada as we go to press.

There’s only one logical response: Bet the other side. Clark may be the Next Big Thing in basketball, women’s or men’s, but as a general rule, we want to fade the brightest stars in our sport. Tuesday’s single-game matchup with the Atlanta Dream has even more betting angles we can exploit.

Is Caitlin Clark Already the MVP?

You’d think so, judging by her Opening Day performance: 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in a 93-58 romp over the Chicago Sky (+8 away). But that still wasn’t quite good enough to cash in the Over for Points Scored on those Caitlin Clark props (Under 20.5).

We’re targeting that specific prop for a reason. Think of all those Clark-curious bettors out there testing the waters for the first time in 2025; they’re more likely to hammer the Over for those WNBA player props than take the spread, and of all those props, Points Scored is the big kahuna.

Is it ironic that Clark hit the Over for both Rebounds (Over 5.5) and Assists (Over 9.5)? Maybe not. Casual fans don’t pay quite as much attention to those raw stats, although they’re still part of the Big Three that form the classic triple-double. One game is a small sample size, but speaking generally again, if we want to squeeze the most value from the Caitlin Clark odds, Points Scored is where the betting market should be most vulnerable.

What About the Atlanta Dream?

Yes, there is a second team in Tuesday’s contest – and a tougher opponent than Clark faced last Saturday. The Dream are projected to win 24.5 games this year according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index at press time, well ahead of Chicago at 17.0.

Defense is one of the key differences between the two. Atlanta’s 2024 squad finished sixth overall with a 102.5 points allowed per 100 possessions, outperforming the No. 8-ranked Sky at 105.6. And that gap should only increase this year with the arrival of center Brittney Griner and forward Brionna Jones.

Having said all that, we have to acknowledge two flies in the ointment. One is the arrival of new head coach Karl Smesko, who has retooled the Dream to run a fast-paced offense with lots of threes; see last Friday’s season-opening 94-90 loss to the Washington Mystics (Over 157), where Atlanta shot 12-of-36 from behind the arc.

Then you have the absence of two-time All-Defensive First-Team guard Jordin Canada for the Dream. But we’re not as concerned here, given the steady hand of rookie replacement Te-Hina PaoPao, a former McDonald’s All American who played five NCAA seasons between Oregon and South Carolina.

We’re still waiting for the first WNBA props to hit the board for this matchup – these are often the last lines to get posted – but we’re expecting they’ll be sufficiently inflated to give the Under at least some betting value for that Caitlin Clark Points Scored prop. Size your bets accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.

The Parlay

• Clark Under 24.5 Points
• Clark Under 39.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds

WNBA Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (-114) at BetOnline

Two-Legged Parlay (-114)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.