WNBA Pick: Over 163.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
It’s a very strange world out there indeed. But chances are you’re going to have a relatively normal day today, and tomorrow as well. You can bet on it – literally, in the case of Thursday’s game between the Golden State Valkyries and the defending champion New York Liberty.
For those of you who might be new to the art of sports betting, we’re scouring the WNBA odds board for something of value. Four games into their existence, the Valkyries (2-2 SU and ATS) have the Under at 4-0; casual fans may take that as a signal to bet the Under for Thursday’s matchup, which is exactly why we’re recommending the other side for your basketball picks.
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty
Thursday, May 29, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at Barclays Center
Why Can’t the Valkyries Shoot?
They can, at least in theory.
As we go to press, Golden State ranks second overall in free-throw shooting at 84.0%, just behind the Las Vegas Aces at 84.3%. Free throws are usually a good indication of how well players and teams can shoot, given their mechanical and repetitive nature, and the lack of outside variables influencing said shots.
Yet the Valkyries are also last in 3-point shooting at 27.3%. Some of this could be the strength of schedule, with Golden State facing the third-toughest opposition in the league thus far at plus-1.80 SOS (as per Basketball Reference). But we’re more inclined to blame dumb luck here at the home office. The Valkyries are 36-for-132 from downtown, hardly enough of a sample size for passing judgment.
The casual fans who make up the larger percentage of the WNBA betting market –especially during this boom period– aren’t as likely to make that distinction. They don’t even have last year’s Valkyries to help set the baseline for their expectations; all they have is four games, during which they saw Kayla Thornton shoot 5-of-28 (17.9%) from behind the arc, and Julie Vanloo 5-for-21 (23.8%).
Again, we’re more likely to see something closer to normal this Thursday. And for Thornton, “normal” is her career average of 32.1%, spread across nine-plus years in the WNBA. Vanloo’s 3-point rate is a bit lower at 31.7%, although the sophomore from Belgium only has 44 WNBA games under her belt.
Are the Liberty Too Good to Fade?
Perhaps. If we want to harness regression to the mean and hammer those distorted betting markets, we could take Golden State ATS or moneyline, expecting casuals to put too much money on the undefeated Liberty (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, Over 3-1). But this is indeed a very good team –the best in the WNBA at plus-5.7 according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.
Where’s the room for downward mobility? New York also led the league last year at plus-7.3 BPI en route to the championship, so we’re already seeing the effects of losing Thornton to the Valkyries in the WNBA expansion draft – and Courtney Vandersloot to the Chicago Sky in free agency. It’s possible New York’s 37.6% rate from behind the arc (No. 3 overall) will dip closer to last year’s 34.9% (No. 5), but that’s not worth splitting hairs over.
The Pick
If the Liberty are indeed this good, our best shot at yoking those regression monsters is Over 163.5 on those early overseas WNBA lines. BPI has Golden State pegged with the second-worst defense in the league at minus-1.3, and that’s despite forcing their opponents to turn over the ball 16.2% of the time (No. 4 overall) – yet another high-variance stat that’s vulnerable to regression.
Bet accordingly.
WNBA Pick: Over 163.5 (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
