WNBA Pick: Mystics +13.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Maybe the New York Liberty (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) are really this good. But should you bet on it? Our first instinct here at the ranch is to put the Washington Mystics (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) in Thursday’s WNBA picks instead; as we go to press, the Liberty are 13.5-point road faves on the basketball odds board at Heritage Sports, after opening earlier in the day at –12.5. That’s a lot of points.
After some deep digging and layer peeling, we’re more than happy to recommend Washington for your basketball picks at the top-rated sportsbooks. We’ve got 3-point variance working in our favor. We’ve got strength of schedule working in our favor. It’s a moral imperative.
New York Liberty vs. Washington Mystics
Thursday, June 05, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at CareFirst Arena
What’s Wrong With the Liberty?
They’re not perfect. No team is, but that’s easy to forget when you’re the defending WNBA champions, and you haven’t lost a game since October 18. Expectations have been raised.
We’re also dealing with the largest betting market in the league – and one that’s about to receive even more casual fans shifting their attention from the New York Knicks, who are no longer with us in the NBA playoffs. It’s a classic “sell high” opportunity for old-school handicappers.
But we need all the support we can get from the quant division. New York leads the WNBA in 3-point percentage at 38.6%, up from 34.9% (No. 5 in the league) over the full course of the 2024 campaign. Regression is coming; Sabrina Ionescu (35.7%) should escape unscathed, but Jonquel Jones (44.4%) will probably cool off at some point, alongside the following supporting players:
- Leonie Fiebich (52.9%)
- Kennedy Burke (52.2%)
- Rebekah Gardner (57.1%)
Are the Mystics Any Good?
We’re still waiting to find out. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index now projects Washington to win 16.7 games, so they’re pretty much on track at 3-5; however, the Mystics do rank No. 8 overall with a minus-1.28 on the Simple Rating System at Basketball Reference, two spots higher than their BPI projection.
Strength of schedule is our friend here. Washington doesn’t have much room for 3-point regression at 34.3% (No. 7), but they have played the third-most difficult slate thus far (plus-2.09 SOS), while the Liberty have amassed their win total via the second-easiest schedule in the WNBA (minus-3.25 SOS).
Those are the kind of numbers we need to support our central thesis.
Too Hot to Hold
Really, though, this is more about New York and that unsustainable start.
As pointed out in The Atlantic earlier today, their plus-144 point differential is the largest in league history through seven games; for comparison, the 2023 Las Vegas Aces started 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS with a plus-112 differential. Regression didn’t catch up to them until they finished the regular season on a 2-9 ATS slide – but it had to happen sometime.
That time for the Liberty could start Thursday.
Speaking of the Aces, we had them in the Fade bucket for their May 23 matchup with Washington, for similar reasons as Thursday’s tilt between New York and the Mystics. Final score: WAS 72, LV 75, more than close enough for our heroes to cash in as 15-point road dogs. The planets are indeed aligned.
The Pick
Should you make this the requisite underdog-Under parlay? Thursday’s total has already shot up two points to 164.5 on the WNBA lines at Heritage Sports, so combine that with New York’s eventual 3-point regression to the mean, and you’ve got a tasty betting opportunity on your hands.
Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em, and may the sphere be with you.
WNBA Pick: Mystics +13.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
