Top WNBA Pick: Mercury -13.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their WNBA odds for tonight’s action.
All of our attention is devoted to the game between the Mercury and Sun. For your Best Bets, you should invest in the Mercury.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun
Wednesday, June 18, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena
The Spread
Phoenix is a double-digit road favorite for this game.
Especially when the spread is this large, it becomes important to imagine realistic scores. Our question needs to be, is it realistic for Phoenix to win by upward of 20 points?
Whenever Connecticut lost by 15 or more points, it allowed 79 points or more. It has allowed at least 79 points in eight of its eleven games. On the other side, Phoenix scored at least 79 points in six of its twelve games. Six out of twelve might not seem impressive, but consider that the Mercury arguably haven’t played a team that is as bad as Connecticut, which is 2-9 in part because of its terrible defensive rating.
On defense, the Mercury have allowed a point total as low as 59 points. This happened when they beat Seattle 81-59. Connecticut has the worst offense, as measured by offensive rating, and has scored as few as 55 points in a game — when they lost 79-55 in Atlanta.
With Connecticut’s defense being uniquely bad, it makes sense to expect Phoenix to score, at the very least, around 85 points. This will make it very easy for the Mercury to score enough points to cover the spread.
The Significance of Three-Point Shooting
To dig deeper into the matchup, three-point shooting will be particularly important for Phoenix tonight. The Mercury attempt the third-most three-pointers per game, so, if they score a lot of points, they will rely rather heavily on threes to do so.
Importantly, the Sun’s perimeter defense is profoundly vulnerable. This vulnerability has produced some of their worst defensive outputs and their most lopsided affairs:
- They gave up 109 points in a 22-point home loss to Dallas, which made 10 of its 20 three-point attempts.
- They gave up 88 points in a 17-point loss in Indiana, where the Fever made eleven threes while converting 42.3 percent of their three-point attempts.
Overall, Connecticut allows the fourth-most three-point makes per game and is the second-worst team at limiting opposing three-point efficiency. The Sun have the sort of perimeter defense that Phoenix as a team is well-built to exploit.
Phoenix Three-Point Shooters
Three-point shooting will be a salient means of Phoenix’s scoring tonight.
My favorite Mercury three-point shooter tonight is Kitija Laksa. She is a very efficient shooter, who, on the season, is converting 41.2 percent of her three-point attempts.
I like her especially tonight because she is in a great bounce-back spot after she anomalously failed to make a three-pointer in her last game. When she, for example, made zero threes on May 30, she converted 66.7 percent of her three-point attempts in her following game. Likewise, she converted 50 percent of her three-point attempts on May 25 after failing to make a three in her previous game.
She is someone who reliably bounces back from behind the arc, and her bounce-back will be all the more potent against tonight’s weak opponent.
However, she isn’t the only Phoenix player who should be expected to thrive from deep tonight. Look out, among others, also for Monique Akoa Makani, who is converting 47.4 percent of her three-point attempts.
Inside Scoring
The Mercury will not be too reliant on three-point shooting.
They will also be able to succeed inside the arc against a Connecticut defense that allows the fourth-highest field goal percentage against shot attempts within five feet of the basket and that, for example, witnessed Washington’s best offensive performance when the Mystics scored 104 points against it primarily by thriving inside the arc.
Phoenix’s inside scoring stats are deflated by the prolonged absence of Alyssa Thomas, whose scoring comes almost exclusively in her opponent’s interior. However, Thomas is back in action, and she is back to her usual efficient self. In her last game, her field goal percentage was 63.6.
She is her team’s second-leading scorer after Satou Sabally, who averages 20.6 points per game for the Mercury. Sabally, like Thomas, is a prominent inside scorer who demonstrates a variety of effective moves as she strives to attack the paint.
With the likes of Sabally and Thomas, the Mercury will boast great inside scoring with which to complement their three-point shooting.
Phoenix’s Defensive Prowess
Connecticut’s offense will make Phoenix look elite defensively tonight, although the Mercury regularly look very good with their fourth-best defensive rating.
On offense, the Sun do not demonstrate any strengths. They are the second-worst three-point shooting team and are likewise very inefficient around the basket.
Connecticut is slightly stronger around the basket than it is behind the arc. This disparity plays into Phoenix’s strength because its best defensive performances came against teams, like Washington and Seattle, that rely less than any other team on attempting three-pointers.
The Sun average the third-fewest three-point attempts and match up poorly against a Mercury defense whose prowess is especially evident in the interior.
Size Meets Skill
On defense in the frontcourt, Sabally has good length as a 6’4 forward. She is a well-sized player who, despite her size, does a good job of navigating ball-screens. The length of her arms allows her to disrupt opposing actions behind the arc, which makes it harder for opposing offenses to attack the interior, where she also ably limits the efficiency of opposing scorers.
Thomas is more well-known as a defender, as evident in her annually excellent defensive rating. She is a versatile defender who can guard every position.
Overall, Phoenix has the interior defense to punish opposing offenses for relying too heavily on scoring inside, as Connecticut pathetically does. With this heavy reliance on scoring inside, Connecticut will, at the very best, struggle to reach 70 points.
Takeaway
Tonight’s game will feature an utter blowout in which Phoenix’s offense thrives both inside and behind the arc against a defense that repeatedly concedes efficient shooting and absurdly high point totals.
On defense, the Mercury will have an easy time against a Connecticut offense that lacks strengths and that relies heavily on scoring inside.
In sum, I’m expecting a 93-68 win for Phoenix.
WNBA Pick: Mercury -13.5 (-115) at BetOnline
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