Top WNBA Pick: Sky +11 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
You’ve picked a very good time to bet on the WNBA at the top-rated sportsbooks. The recent explosion in this league’s popularity has given us one of the softest betting markets in all of sports – which we’ve exploited to great success here at the ranch with a combination of classic old-school handicapping and very simple statistical analysis.
Take last Friday’s game between the Atlanta Dream and Connecticut Sun, for example. We first recommended the Sun as 8.5-point home dogs on the closing line, then they moved to +10 by the time we published, and as high as +11.5 when the WNBA odds closed. Final score: ATL 76, CON 84. It’s like picking cherries off a tree.
Why stop now? The Chicago Sky (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) find themselves in much the same orbit as the Sun; 3-point regression will be working for us again, but this time, Atlanta (6-3 SU and ATS) is the home side, steaming from –9.5 at the open to –11 at Heritage as we go to press. Of course, we’re sticking with Chicago, but you might want to wait until closer to tip-off to see if those basketball odds keep moving in our favor.
Chicago Sky vs. Atlanta Dream
Friday, June 13, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Gateway Center Arena
Are the Dream for Real?
Possibly. They’re 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games, that loss to Connecticut the only blemish. And as we pointed out last week, 3-point regression isn’t going to help us here specifically; Atlanta has even fallen from eighth to 10th in that department at 31.1%.
Strength of schedule is still in play, though. After facing the Sun and the Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever, the Dream have fallen from minus-2.01 SOS to minus-2.42 over at Basketball Reference. Compare and contrast to the Sky, now second overall ahead of Connecticut at plus-3.08 SOS. It hardly seems fair.
Then you have that supposed home-court advantage for Atlanta this Friday. Gateway Center is the smallest arena in the WNBA; the Dream used to share State Farm Arena with the NBA’s Atlanta Hawks before moving south to College Park in 2020. Team president Morgan Shaw said back in March that the team is “actively seeking” a new home – and a new practice facility. This will have to do for now.
Can the Sky Hit a Bucket?
You wouldn’t think so, judging by their 45.0 eFG% (effective Field Goal Percentage), which is dead-last in the WNBA. But that includes Chicago’s 29.2% from long range, third from the bottom and very much in line for some positive regression.
Courtney Vandersloot (21.7%) has been one of the biggest under-performers for the Sky thus far. You won’t have to worry about the veteran guard this Friday; Vandersloot is out for the year with a torn ACL, which means it’s finally time for Chicago to unleash Haley Van Lith, the No. 11 pick in this year’s WNBA Draft – and one of the better scoring guards in college, where she shot 33.8% from downtown in five seasons spread across three different teams.
The Pick
We’re still trying to figure out here at the ranch whether star forward Angel Reese is generating more action from Chicago supporters, or if her role as the WNBA’s Evil Witch is encouraging bettors to hammer the other side. All will be revealed in time once the science is in; for now, we’re content to keep riding those regression monsters for strength of schedule and Chicago’s 3-point shooting.
Time your bets accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
WNBA Pick: Sky +11 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
