WNBA Pick: Over 158.5 (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Well, that’s no fun: Caitlin Clark will miss at least two weeks of WNBA action, felled by a strained left quadriceps – not the same injury that limited Clark in the preseason, according to Indiana Fever head coach Stephanie White, but enough to put Clark on the shelf for the first time in her career – college or pro.
You know what this means: Indiana is an instant “follow” candidate for Friday’s game against the visiting Connecticut Sun. It’s a classic case of the betting public overvaluing Clark’s production level, and/or undervaluing the other players who will soak up those minutes, just like when LeBron James sits out for the NBA’s Los Angeles Lakers.
At least that’s what old-school handicapping theory would dictate. Let’s see if the juice is worth the squeeze, as the kids say; the Fever are 12-point home faves on the early overseas WNBA odds board, so we might need more than just the Absent Superstar angle to justify our basketball picks.
Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever
Friday, May 30, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Can the Fever Win Without Clark?
They have yet to do so.
In their first game without Clark this past Wednesday, Indiana dropped an 83-77 decision to the Washington Mystics as 4-point road faves. Sydney Colson stepped in at point guard for Clark and performed reasonably well at both ends –but also missed all three of her trey attempts, as the Fever shot 5-of-21 (24%) from behind the arc.
We do love us some of that 3-point regression here at the ranch.
Washington shot a normal 4-for-11 from long range, so maybe we can blame this one on dumb luck; while Colson is the primary ball-handler for this new Indiana lineup, the onus is on 2-guard Kelsey Mitchell (4-of-16 from the floor Wednesday) to put points on the board. Mitchell was an All-Star before and after Clark’s arrival. She’ll be fine, so will they.
Are the Sun Ever Going to Win a Game?
Probably. We’ve been waiting all year; Connecticut is off to a 0-5 start (1-4 ATS), but wouldn’t you know it, they’re also second from the bottom in 3-point accuracy at 28.0%. And that’s after playing above-average opposition (plus-1.26 SOS, No. 5 overall at Basketball Reference) through five games.
The regression monsters are in their corner.
Not that we should expect miracles this Friday. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index projects the Sun to win 11.7 games and lose 32.3, an incredible drop-off from last year’s 32-15 campaign (21-25-1 ATS, postseason included). That’s because the following players from that team aren’t there anymore:
- Alyssa Thomas
- DeWanna Bonner
- DiJonai Carrington
- Brionna Jones
- Tyasha Harris
What we have instead is a rebuilding project nominally centered around Aneesah Morrow, this year’s No. 7 overall pick out of DePaul/LSU, and Saniya Rivers, No. 8 out of South Carolina/NC State. Except Morrow has barely gotten off the bench thus far after missing the first two games of her rookie campaign with a knee injury –and Rivers also sat out a game for personal reasons.
Again, there may be some upward mobility for Connecticut as Morrow rounds into form, provided she gets the opportunity.
The Pick
In the end, we just don’t have the supporting angles we need to auto-bet the Clarkless Fever with confidence. But we can still take at least some advantage of that regression/market distortion by hitting Over 163.5 on the overseas WNBA betting lines. The Sun have the second-worst defensive rating in the league at 112.5 points allowed per 100 possessions; let it rain buckets Friday night, and may the sphere be with you.
WNBA Pick: Over 158.5 (-108) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
