WNBA Best Bets for May 23: That’s Why We’re Fading Las Vegas
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Jason Lake
- May 23, 2025
WNBA Pick: Mystics +14.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Las Vegas Aces are a damn fine basketball team. They won back-to-back WNBA titles in 2022 and 2023, and they’ve got the reigning and three-time league MVP, A’ja Wilson. But the Aces also have a devoted betting public at the top-rated sportsbooks, one that’s likely to skew Friday’s WNBA odds too far when the Washington Mystics come to town.
Washington Mystics vs. Las Vegas Aces
Friday, May 23, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at Michelob ULTRA Arena
Are the Las Vegas Aces Washed?
Probably not. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index projects Las Vegas (1-1 SU and ATS) to win 27.7 games this year, trailing only last year’s finalists from New York and Minnesota (31.5 wins apiece). They might even have some value as +400 fourth-favorites on the WNBA championship futures market at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).
But that’s because too many casual bettors have unloaded on Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever (second favorites at +290). That dynamic won’t play out during Friday’s single-game matchup; instead, we’re counting on all those Las Vegas fans to overbet the home side, and leave us with the Mystics (2-1 SU and ATS) at a bargain price.
Let’s see if this premise holds up after some research. Here’s how the Aces have performed since moving from San Antonio after the 2017 campaign:
- 2018: 14-20 SU, 16-16-1 ATS
- 2019: 23-16 SU, 16-22-1 ATS
- 2020: 18-4 SU, 12-9-1 ATS
- 2021: 24-8 SU, 16-15-1 ATS
- 2022: 26-10 SU, 18-18 ATS
- 2023: 34-6 SU, 22-18 ATS
- 2024: 30-16 SU, 21-23-2 ATS
That’s a mixed bag for sure. But it does suggest that Las Vegas is on the wane; they did some serious remodeling after last year’s playoff loss to the eventual champions from New York, losing all four of their unrestricted free agents – including Kelsey Plum (now with Los Angeles) and reigning Sixth Woman of the Year Tiffany Hayes (Golden State).
Not having a first-round pick in 2025 to help replenish the roster could prove costly in both the short and long term.
Are the Mystics Any Good?
Not really. They’re projected to win 18.0 games this year, fourth-lowest in the league, and they’re second from the bottom of the WNBA odds board at +30000.
Still, this does suggest that Washington is undervalued in the marketplace. This is the youngest team in the WNBA, with a rookie head coach in Sydney Johnson and a rookie GM in Jamila Wideman. But two of their young players have already paid dividends: Sonia Citron (the No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft) and Kiki Iriafen (No. 4 overall) are second and third on the Mystics in scoring behind veteran Brittney “Slim” Sykes, who leads the way at a healthy 26.3 points per game.
The thing about WNBA rookies is that they’re not nearly as raw as most of those entering the NBA. Citron, for example, played four years at Notre Dame and was a three-time All-ACC; she’s also in the Team USA pipeline. Likewise, Iriafen spent four years in NCAA ball, including the 2024-25 season at USC, where she was both All-Big Ten and an AP All-American. These players are indeed ready for prime time.
The Pick
Sometimes we do get a bit hung up on old-school handicapping here at the ranch. Fading Las Vegas because their betting public is too attached? That’s a speculative angle heading into the 2025 season, now that the Aces are somewhat removed from their title run – but following the Mystics as a “buy low” commodity is already paying off.
Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
WNBA Pick: Mystics +14.5 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
