WNBA Best Bets for June 6: Sun Protection for Your Bankroll
-
Jason Lake
- June 6, 2025
WNBA Pick: Connecticut Sun +10 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
So it was written, so it came to pass; we recommended avoiding the Indiana Fever minus Caitlin Clark, and instead taking the Over for last Friday’s matchup with the Connecticut Sun. Final score: CON 85, IND 83 (Over 159), with the Clarkless Fever losing outright as 11-point favorites on the WNBA odds board.
Our faith in regression paid off when Connecticut shot 10-of-20 against Indiana from 3-point range. It was their first win of the season – and still their only win, after Sunday’s 100-52 loss to the New York Liberty (Under 163.5), which saw the Sun go 6-for-28 (21%) from downtown.
Which Connecticut (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) will we get this Friday night when the Atlanta Dream (5-2 SU and ATS) come to town? Do we trust them enough as 8.5-point home dogs on the early overseas WNBA lines? Maybe we will after some journalism.
Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun
Friday, June 06, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena
Do the Sun Need to Get Lucky?
To some extent. Basketball is a game of luck as well as skill; it’s not the same kind of random chance that poker players have to contend with, but more of a distribution curve. I won’t get too deep into this, partly because I’m not a licensed statistician.
Anyway, Connecticut had to hit half their threes to beat Indiana last week –but not just to cover. For that, a mere 6-for-20 (30%) would have sufficed. They would have needed an almost perfect night to beat the Liberty on Sunday, so as always, remember that you can’t rely on 3-point regression to cash out in the short term.
It’s just one betting angle out of many.
Does Anyone Care About the Dream?
The most niche team in the WNBA has its fans – about 4,700 per game last year, the fewest in the league. The Dream also ranked last in valuation at just $55 million in 2024 (as per Sportico), well behind the first-place Las Vegas Aces as $140 million. Even the Sun, who are owned by the Mohegan Tribe and have to share the Tribal Practice Facility with other community members, were valued at $80 million in the league’s smallest market.
It doesn’t help that the Dream aren’t affiliated with the NBA’s Atlanta Hawks – or that they’ve never won the title, or even gotten past the first round since 2018. But something is different this year. New head coach Karl Smesko has Atlanta playing their best hoops since they joined the league in 2008, checking in at plus-3.3 on the Simple Rating System at Basketball Reference.
Smesko was brought in from Florida Gulf Coast University to juice up Atlanta’s offense, and boy howdy is it working. The Dream are scoring 108.2 points per 100 possessions, easily the most in franchise history – although still third overall this year to New York (115.6) and Minnesota (110.1).
Is it sustainable? Maybe; Atlanta ranks No. 8 in 3-point shooting at 32.1%, so they’re safe on that front, but they have played the third-easiest schedule in the WBNA (minus-2.01 SOS), while Connecticut remains second from the top at plus-3.83 SOS.
The Pick
If you’re thinking this might be a good spot to avoid fading Hotlanta and take Over 157.5 instead on those overseas WNBA betting lines, you’re not alone: We’re already seeing enough early action on the Dream to push their early odds as high as –9.5. But that just gives us an even better price to make our requisite contrary pick.
Adjust your bet size accordingly for the odds you see when you read this, and may the sphere be with you.
WNBA Pick: Connecticut Sun +10 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
