WNBA Best Bets for June 15: Will Wilson Play for Las Vegas?
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Jason Lake
- June 15, 2025
Top WNBA Pick: Mercury vs. Aces Over 165 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
If you’re a fan of the Las Vegas Aces, I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news: A’ja Wilson is in concussion protocol. Or at least she is at press time; the reigning WNBA MVP got her bell rung Wednesday when Las Vegas fell 97-89 to the Los Angeles Sparks (+9 away), and remained out for Friday’s narrow 88-84 win over the Dallas Wings (+5.5 away).
Which leaves us in a bit of a bind here at the ranch. Sunday’s tilt between Las Vegas (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) and the Phoenix Mercury (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) is circled on the WNBA odds board while we wait to see if Wilson is cleared in time to play. So we’re inviting you to call an audible; we’re putting the total in our basketball picks either way, but make it the Over if you find out Wilson is inactive, and the Under if she’s good to go.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
Sunday, June 15, 2025 – 06:00 PM EDT at Michelob ULTRA Arena
Why Not Bet the Spread?
Because the Mercury (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) are supplying the opposition this Sunday.
You may recall back on May 23 we were happy to fade Las Vegas as 14.5-point home faves against the Washington Mystics, whom we pegged as an undervalued commodity. Final score: WAS 72, LV 75. The Aces are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS since, including three straight ATS losses – but those were against the three teams below them in the Western Conference standings.
It’s not going to be quite as easy to squeeze value out of Phoenix. They’re performing about as well as advertised; there’s little room for regression on their 33.2% accuracy on 3-pointers, and the Mercury have played a league-average schedule (plus-0.10 SOS at Basketball Reference) thus far.
Which makes Sunday’s matchup a poor choice for the old “bet on the team with the missing superstar” trick. Given how large a betting public the Aces have, we’d rather Wilson played so we can fade them again, but we’d still prefer a team like L.A. or Dallas on the other side – or the Golden State Valkyries, who squished Las Vegas 95-68 on June 7 as 12.5-point home dogs on the WNBA lines.
Why Bet the Total?
Because we can still exploit the betting market to some degree. Casual fans will likely overreact to Wilson’s status report, whether they’re betting the spread or the total; if the three-time MVP is still out, they’ll put too much money on the Under, and if she plays, they’ll do the same with the Over. In theory.
Old-school handicapping also tells us the Under has fundamental betting value, so again, we’d rather see Wilson play than not. Having said that, the total has been split right down the middle at 32-32-2 across the league as we go to press, which is eerie enough, but what if we also told you that home and away teams are tied at 33-33 ATS? And that favorites are 34-32 ATS (51.5%), still not enough to make a profit against the standard –110 vigorish?
The Pick
We’re not too worried here at the ranch about the WNBA betting market drying up.
There are still plenty of opportunities for us to exploit those casuals at the top-rated sportsbooks; it’s all about picking the matchups with the most betting angles in our favor, and sizing our bets appropriately. Phoenix doesn’t have a lot to offer us in either direction, so consider making it a fun-size bet when you get the Wilson news, and may the sphere be with you.
If A’ja Wilson Sits:
- Mercury vs. Aces Over 165 (-110) at BetOnline
If A’ja Wilson Plays:
- Mercury vs. Aces Under 165 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
