WNBA Best Angel Reese Prop Bets May 27: Things Can Only Get Better

Why Is Angel Reese a Villain?

Nope, not going there. But it is plausible the WNBA odds are tilted against Reese and the Sky (0-3 SU and ATS, Over 2-1) just because she’s the rival of Caitlin Clark, the most famous player in the league. We’ve been happy to fade Clark and take the Under for some of her WNBA props; is there similar value on the other side of this rivalry? Maybe.

Here’s something we can tell you: After three games, the Sky rank No. 11 among the WNBA’s 13 teams in 3-point shooting at 28.4%, and dead-last in 3-point shooting allowed at 47.6%. Surely both numbers will regress towards the mean in the long run.

Okay, almost surely. Maybe this is actually how bad a team Chicago is putting on the court, given some of their other stats:

• 2P%: 41.3 (No. 12)
• FTA: 16.3 (No. 12)
• FT%: 59.2 (No. 13)
• DRB: 24.0 (No. 13)
• AST: 16.7 (No. 12)
• TOV: 19.0 (No. 13)

Awful indeed, but this is only a three-game sample, and the Sky faced the league’s toughest schedule during that stretch (plus-5.91 SOS at Basketball Reference). I hear the regression mermaids singing.

Are the Mercury Any Good?

They’re third in the Western Conference at 3-1 (2-2 ATS, Under 3-1), and that’s after playing the league’s fourth-toughest schedule at plus-1.98 SOS. However, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index indicates that the Mercury are mid; they’ve got Phoenix projected for 20.6 wins and 23.4 losses in 2025, a marginal improvement over last year’s 19-21 (20-19-1 ATS) campaign.

It’s definitely not the same team Reese faced in 2024, when she put up the following percentages and per-game numbers in 67 minutes played across two games:

• FG%: 40.0
• FT%: 46.2
• PTS: 15.0
• TRB: 17.5
• AST: 1.0

We need to be very careful with these numbers, not only because of the small sample size, but also because All-Stars Brittney Griner (now with Atlanta) and Diana Taurasi (retired) have moved on. Which isn’t necessarily good news for Reese; six-time All-Defensive forward Alyssa Thomas (formerly with Connecticut) joins the Mercury this year, alongside two-time All-Star forward Satou Sabally (formerly with Dallas).

We can still glean something from the stats. Reese set the WNBA season record for rebounds last year at 446, including 18 offensive rebounds in her two games against Phoenix. However, those ORB opportunities were abundant because the Sky shot 4-for-33 (12.1%) from behind the arc, even worse than this year’s three-game sample.

Meanwhile, Reese’s assists this year are up from 2.1 to 2.6 per 36 minutes, and that’s despite Chicago’s failure to convert. Many of those dishes will be in the paint, of course, but some combination of regression on 3-pointers (and 2-pointers) and easier opposition could benefit Reese bettors this Tuesday.

The Pick

We’re looking at a total of 1.5 assists for Reese on the early overseas WNBA lines at press time, down from 2.5 in her May 17 matchup against Clark and the Indiana Fever, where Reese was held to one assist.

The Angel Reese Assists prop is naturally volatile, since we’re dealing with such a small total, and those 3-pointers are obviously volatile as well; size your bets accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.

WNBA Pick: Angel Reese Over 1.5 Assists (-115) at BetOnline

Angel Reese Over 1.5 Assists (-115)

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