UFC Vegas 106: Main Card Best Bets, Analysis and Predictions
-
David Manyun
- May 13, 2025
The UFC returns to the small octagon in Vegas, but size shouldn’t matter because we have a stacked fight card from the prelims to the main card!
Gilbert Burns, Michael Morales, Nursulton Ruziboev, and Dustin Stolzfus are involved in two main card bangers, and I’ve located the perfect betting value to attack the UFC odds markets.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Vegas 106 main card analysis and predictions.
UFC Vegas 106 Best Bets
- Ruziboev/Stolzfus Under 1.5 Rounds (-115) at BetOnline
- Burns/Morales Under 3.5 Rounds (-120) at BetOnline
UFC Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 04:00 PM EDT
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales (UFC Welterweight Bout)
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
UFC Vegas 106 Welterweight Main Event
Burns: The Story So Far
Gilbert ‘Durinho’ Burns needs little introduction. This UFC legend is a former title challenger with nearly a decade of experience. He has championship-level jiu-jitsu credentials and the power in his fists to put anyone’s lights out.
However, at 38, while riding the first 3-fight losing streak of his UFC career, how much does this top-contending Brazilian have left in the tank? Enough to defeat a rising prospect, perhaps?
- Burns Pro MMA Record: 22-8
- Burns KOs: 6
- Burns Submissions: 9
Morales: The Story So Far
Introducing Michael Morales. And if you don’t know, get to know. This 25-year-old Ecuadorian knockout artist has been on a tear since his pro-MMA debut in 2017, with 13 of his 17 fights ending inside the distance (12 KOs) and a 5-0 UFC record; his unblemished record cannot be ignored.
However, Saturday will be Morales’ most important and dangerous fight to date. Not to mention, his first contest potentially involving five rounds. In a sink or swim situation, does the youngster put a stamp on his position at 170lbs or get taught a serious lesson by the veteran?
- Morales Pro MMA Record: 17-0
- Morales KOs: 12
- Morales Submissions: 1
Burns vs. Morales: Fight Tape Analysis
It’s always difficult to analyze a rising prospect with an experienced veteran. Burns, who has faced a killer’s row of 170-pounders during his UFC tenure, cannot be overlooked, especially when the losing streak he’s currently riding involves nothing but champions, former champions, and top contenders.
In contrast, Morales hasn’t faced an opponent even close to Burns’ calibre. However, this youngster hasn’t just won five UFC fights, but he’s achieved victory dominantly. Doubting him based on experience might be foolish, as every contender in the welterweight division today has previously been in his shoes.
Underestimating Burns, with credible wrestling and elite BJJ versus Morales’s unknown takedown defense, is risky. Should he drag this fight to the mat, and as we don’t have past fight tape of Morales fighting this level of grappler and succeeding, it could be a nasty end.
On the flipside, despite the power in his hands, Burns has shown vulnerabilities in striking exchanges. Should Brazil’s finest drop the ball in a kickboxing war, the eight-inch reach advantage, significant speed, and precise striking combinations of Morales could easily result in the next rising superstar being born this weekend.
UFC Vegas 106 Main Card Odds & Prediction
While I have a slight lean towards Morales, I’m making this decision based on heart, as my head tells me that Burns has the more proven path to victory. However, one thing feels certain: an exposed or a coming out party situation.
Burns will either dominate this fight on the ground and expose Morales’s lacking skillset, thus proving Morales isn’t ready for the big leagues, or he’ll suffer a brutal knockout at the hands of this prospect, who is notably faster and more powerful than some of Burns’ past foes who’ve overcome him in a kickboxing scrap.
The UFC odds at top sportsbooks place a ridiculous moneyline price on Morales. Still, based on the violence expected and polar opposite paths to victory, the under 3 ½ rounds at -120 is the play!
UFC Pick: Under 3.5 Rounds (-120) [1.2u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)
Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Dustin Stolzfus
UFC Middleweight Main Card Bout
Ruziboev: The Story So Far
Either you’re a Nursulton Ruziboev or not, but the latter will have you believe that his 35 career wins aren’t credible because the majority of those fights arrived on the MMA regional scene. However, no matter how you paint it, this 31-year-old has been fighting for eleven years, and 33 men (3 in the UFC) have suffered a knockout or submission from his 35 victories.
- Ruziboev Pro MMA Record: 35-9-2
- Ruziboev KOs: 13
- Ruziboev Submissions: 20
Stolzfus: The Story So Far
Dustin Stolzfus gets a bad rep due to a 3-5 UFC record, but he isn’t the worst fighter at middleweight by any means. He’s displayed credible kickboxing when remaining focused and mixed in some wrestling when viable. Thus far, 2 of his 3 wins in the octagon have come by knockout or submission to date, with 4 of his 5 losses arriving in the same way.
- Stolzfus Pro MMA Record: 16-6
- Stolzfus KOs: 3
- Stolzfus Submissions: 6
Ruziboev vs. Stolzfus: Fight Tape Analysis
I am a Ruziboev believer. His lone UFC loss came against Joaquin Buckley, and that’s a top-ranked welterweight contender who’s one win away from title contention. There’s no shame in that decision defeat, and let’s be honest, Ruziboev has looked like a much greater force at 185lbs, having finished all of his UFC opponents at middleweight within 5 minutes and 33 seconds.
I really struggle to envision a world where Stolzfus can drag this fight to the ground and avoid the power of Ruziboev because Uzbekistan’s jiu-jitsu will also pose dangers in the same manner.
As I anticipate this fight will play out on the feet, we’re going to see two heavy-hitters go to war. While Ruziboev is the fighter I believe holds the advantage here, I do believe that both men are capable of ending this fight, particularly in the early stages of the fight.
UFC Vegas 106 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The betting odds at BookMakers Review place Ruziboev as the betting favorite, but the under 1 ½ rounds feels more of a given and at a better price.
Stolzfus, win or lose, has seen under 1 ½ rounds in 3 of his last 4 UFC bouts, while Ruziboev hasn’t seen the 7-minute, 30-second mark since 2019!
In what I believe will be a fight predominantly on the feet with two fighters whose chins have been tested before and equally hold KO power, expect a stoppage early! Heck, even a Ruziboev submission isn’t off the cards!
UFC Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (-115) [1.15 returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
