UFC 316 Main Card Best Bets: Fight-Ending Predictions to Bank On!
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David Manyun
- June 6, 2025
Top UFC Pick: Holland/Luque Under 2.5 Rounds (-145) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Finally, the Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the cage with an absolutely stacked pay-per-view fight card!
While ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley’s bantamweight title rematch versus Merab will steal the spotlight, Vicente Luque, Kevin Holland, Kayla Harrison, and Julianna Pena are involved in two main card bangers, including a women’s bantamweight title clash, and I’m seeing unmissable value at top sportsbooks for us to attack.
The time for talk is over; join me as I dive right into my favorite UFC 316 main card predictions, betting odds and analysis.
UFC 316 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 07, 2025 – 06:00 PM EDT
- Location: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley (UFC Bantamweight Title Bout)
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland
UFC 316 Welterweight Main Card Bout
Vicente Luque
What isn’t there to like about Brazil’s own, Vicente Luque? He’s served the UFC in 22 octagon appearances since 2015, maintained a position amongst the welterweight top-15 rankings for the majority of his career under the promotion, and been involved in some of the most memorable and violent clashes at 170lbs.
While a 16-6 UFC record, including 14 wins by knockout or submission, is nothing to turn our noses up at, three of Luque’s six losses have come over the past two years, and a notable downtrend has started to emerge.
Does he have another top-ranked win in him? Or could it be the end of the line for this Brazilian warrior?
- Luque Pro MMA Record: 23-10-1
- Luque KOs: 11
- Luque Submissions: 9
Kevin Holland
In-step, Kevin Holland, who, much like his weekend opponent, has been a company man since joining the UFC and continues to be a regular fixture on the UFC schedule no matter the challenge. A 14-10 UFC record might not impress as much as Luque’s, but a constant trend of overcoming fighters at the back end of their careers might put him at an advantage this weekend.
- Holland Pro MMA Record: 27-13
- Holland KOs: 13
- Holland Submissions: 9
Luque vs. Holland: Fight Tape Analysis
While he isn’t necessarily known as some wrestling savant, Luque can, and probably should, take an offensive wrestling route in this fight. Suppose you’ve ever watched or studied Kevin Holland inside the octagon. In that case, you’ll know that wrestling/grappling defense has been his kryptonite, so the Brazilian would fare well by utilizing such a strategy at UFC 316.
Of course, that’s much easier said than done, especially when an opponent who’s much longer with finishing power stands across you in the cage.
Holland will do his best work against Luque by utilizing said reach and looking to piece him open at distance. But again, that’s easier said than done because Luque offers much more on the feet than many of Holland’s past successes.
Moneyline betting on this fight feels somewhat like a trap. Holland is the favorite but is significantly less successful versus elite-level opponents, while Luque is the underdog who has defeated opponents who are arguably at a level above Holland.
UFC 316 Main Card Odds & Prediction
Moneyline bettors should be cautious, but if there’s one outlier in this battle, it would be the finish ability and questionable durability of both men. Win or lose, Holland rarely sees the judges intervene, and the same can be said for Luque, whose gone the distance in just two fights since 2019.
The UFC pricing with BookMakers Review top sportsbooks has a reasonable price on the under 2.5 rounds, and with Luques’ grappling and Holland’s power going head-to-head, I love this play because both fighters are equally as dangerous, and capable of finishing this fight as one another.
UFC Pick: Holland/Luque Under 2.5 Rounds (-145) [1.45u returns 1u profit] at Heritage Sports
Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison
UFC 316 Women’s Bantamweight Title Bout
Julianna Pena
I think most of us are still scratching our heads at how Julianna Pena defeated the GOAT, Amanda Nunes, in 2021, but she did, and that’ll be her career highlight until retirement. She did go on to lose the title she won from Nunes in the rematch, but when ‘The Lioness’ retired, she was able to snatch it back in a vacant title clash with Raquel Pennington last year.
- Pena Pro MMA Record: 1
- Pena KOs: 7
- Pena Submissions: 5
Kayla Harrison
Stepping up to the plate as Pena’s first title defense will be the formidable Kayla Harrison. It must be noted that we use the word ‘formidable’ based on her accomplishments outside the UFC. She’s a former Olympic champion and PFL champion, but in the UFC, she’s only 2-0 with a clear fast-track into title contention.
- Harrison Pro MMA Record: 1
- Harrison KOs: 4
- Harrison Submissions: 5
Pena vs. Harrison: Fight Tape Analysis
My worry for Harrison, despite being a near 8/1 betting favorite at most sportsbooks, is that she’s cutting a huge amount of weight to make 135 lbs, and her five-round experience doesn’t exist. There’s no denying that the likelihood of her rag-dolling Pena with that elite grappling is the highest probable outcome, but finishing her food, which has been a problem in the past, might be harder than the odds suggest.
When I saw Harrison sitting with a -175 price tag to win this fight by knockout or submission, I was surprised. For the hate that Pena gets, for being too slow in striking exchanges with a lack of finishing hunger, you can’t deny her durability and toughness, which are two factors in her game that have ushered in the success she’s had to date.
Nunes couldn’t finish Pena, and now, Harrison, who’s never finished a fight outside of the second round, is expected to stop her within 10. I don’t envision this happening, but more to the point, you could argue that she does have two rounds to finish this fight, or she could potentially lose.
UFC 316 Main Card Odds & Prediction
Without the five-round experience, on top of the huge weight cut, and the fact that Pena is one tough sob, can we ignore the UFC pricing with BookMakers Review top sportsbooks that’s gifting us +170 on this fight to go all five rounds.
Across the PFL and the UFC, Harrison has gone the distance in 3 of her last 4, and Pena hasn’t been stopped inside the distance since 2020, and a battle of will, cardio, and durability could easily force the fight onto the judge’s scorecards.
UFC Pick: Fight Goes the Distance (+170) [1 returns 1.7u profit] at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
