UFC 315 Main Card Best Bets: Building Our Bankroll in Canada
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David Manyun
- May 10, 2025
UFC 315 Best Bets
- Jose Aldo By Decision (-130)
- Belal Muhammad ML (-175)
*All odds from BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship ships the octagon to the Great White North this weekend, with a fight card that features not one but two UFC championship fights!
Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, Jose Aldo, and Aiemann Zahabi are involved in two main card bouts, and I’m seeing noteworthy UFC odds and betting value for us to take advantage of.
Let’s cut the formality and dive right into my favorite UFC 315 main card analysis, predictions, and best bets from top sportsbooks.
UFC 315 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, May 10, 2025 – 06:30 PM EDT
- Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Canada
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena (UFC Welterweight Title Bout)
Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
UFC 315 Featherweight Main Card Bout
Aldo: The Story So Far
A fall from grace for Jose Aldo? Nope, not really, but oddly, the UFC are treating him like some second-class fighter. The most dominant featherweight champion in UFC history was robbed of a split decision last time, as Mario Bautista held him against the cage. Prior to that, his move to bantamweight had only included losses to Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan, the current champ and former champ at 135lbs.
So, now, he’s fighting Aiemann Zahabi? What’s going on?
Aldo’s name is being used for up-and-coming names. However, despite his age of 38, he’s still one of the most complete and experienced fighters in the UFC, and a non-ranked Zahabi might lose his win streak this weekend.
- Aldo Pro MMA Record: 32-9
- Aldo KOs: 16
- Aldo Submissions: 2
Zahabi: The Story So Far
Canada’s own Aiemann Zahabi might be hoping for some home cooking in his country of Canada this weekend, but he’ll need more than that to conquer the ‘King of Rio.’
Following Bautista’s game plan of holding Aldo against the cage might be viable, but outside of this, he’ll be faced with an elite striking offense, takedown threats, and a style of fighting built for pointing with a sprinkle of knockout potential for good measure.
- Zahabi Pro MMA Record: 12-2
- Zahabi KOs: 5
- Zahabi Submissions: 3
Aldo vs. Zahabi: Fight Tape Analysis
If you’re old and grey like me, you’ll appreciate that the WEC and early UFC versions of Aldo arguably presented the best fighter on the planet, pound for pound, at the time.
But guess what? Even at the age of 38, he remains an absolute menace in the octagon, behind an ultra-clean kickboxing game, incredible takedown defense, and some of the best fight intelligence at bantamweight.
So, what’s Zahabi going to plan out here… Takedowns? Nope, if Merab couldn’t do it, a 37-year-old Zahabi with just 14 fights on his record won’t. That leaves a kickboxing affair, and I’m sorry, but with such a lack of takedown threat from Canada, the Aldo leg kicks will reign free, and in the red zone, expect some of those classic ripping body shots to drain the underdog from early.
UFC3 315 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Aldo as the betting favorite, and rightfully so. Versus the away crowd of Canada, and the five-fight win streak of his opponent, ‘The King of Rio,’ will remind the UFC why they shouldn’t doubt his prowess.
Whether it’s a complete striking masterclass or a mix-up of kickboxing and grappling, Aldo will give the judges no choice but to give him the nod this time around.
UFC Pick: Jose Aldo By Decision (-130) [1.3u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
UFC 315 Welterweight Title Bout
Muhammad: The Story So Far
On the topic of disrespect, Belal Muhammad has been in the same boat for the majority of his UFC tenure. However, in this situation, the disrespect stems from the MMA community, who, for lack of a better term, don’t appreciate his sometimes lethargic and point-style fights, which have placed him on an 11-fight undefeated streak.
Love or hate him, Belal’s skillset has been domineering. He’s tackled every challenge placed in front of him since 2019, and with a 15-3-1 record, he’s now the defending welterweight champion of the world following an emphatic performance over Leon Edwards last summer.
- Muhammad Pro MMA Record: 24-3
- Muhammad KOs: 5
- Muhammad Submissions: 1
Della Maddalena: The Story So Far
Fortunately for Australia’s Jack Della Maddalena, he’s receiving a title opportunity despite being the No.5-ranked fighter at 170 lbs. As the injured Shavkat Rakhmonov was forced to pull out, JDM steps up and puts his 7-0 unbeaten UFC streak to the biggest test of them all.
JDM impressively finished Gilbert Burns in early 2024. Still, with consistent concerns around his takedown defense, Saturday’s main event presents an intriguing championship bout considering the fact that he’s facing one of the best wrestlers/grapplers in the division.
- JDM Pro MMA Record: 17-2
- JDM KOs: 12
- JDM Submissions: 2
Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena: Fight Tape Analysis
There’s no denying what we have here: a cliché striker versus wrestler matchup. Belal will talk to the UFC media and proclaim he isn’t going to shoot a takedown, but this would undoubtedly be the worst game plan, and we know ‘Remember the Name’ loves to troll the fans who often show him nothing but disdain.
So, while Belal did show moments of success striking with a well-seasoned striker in Edwards last time out, it’s unlikely he’ll have the same pleasure here. Why? Because Della Maddalena has that one-touch, lights-out power, and with so many red flags regarding the challenger’s takedown defense, why wouldn’t Belel utilize the same tool that’s assisted him in becoming a champion in almost every fight to date?
Aside from the obvious paths to victory for both men, we also have to respect Belal’s grinding style, which regularly drains the gas tank of his foes. JDM has never fought five rounds, and has notably looked drained in some of his three-round outings. In contrast, Belal is a cardio beast who can spam takedowns for 25 minutes without suffering the gas tank consequences.
UFC 315 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Belal as a slight betting favorite at -175, and once again, despite being the favorite, this line could be viewed as disrespectful.
In five of his previous six UFC bouts, Belal has been the underdog and triumphed. Now, he’s a favorite with only a slight margin. Considering the experience and all of the factors I’ve highlighted, this line feels like a steal, and one simple piece of moneyline value we can capitalize on!
UFC Pick: Belal Muhammad ML (-175) [1.75 returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
