Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for tonight’s action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Baltimore vs. Detroit and Boston vs. Texas.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at an online sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Friday, May 13, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Comerica Park
Who Starts for the Orioles?
Baltimore's starter Jordan Lyles brings a 4.05 ERA into tonight's contest. This ERA may seem far from an impressive commentary on his season, but it is as high as it is primarily because of two bad starts against division rivals.
He allowed 6 earned runs in Yankee Stadium and, in his season opener and first start with his new team, 5 earned runs in Tampa Bay. In his other starts -- against the Yankees (again), in Oakland, against Boston, and against Kansas City -- he allowed no more than 3 earned runs in as many as 7.1 innings.
His pitching repertoire shows nice variety. He does not throw a pitch as often as 30% of the time.
Lyles's pitches stand out primarily for their strong movement. In particular, his slider has 6.7 more inches of horizontal movement than the average slider.
The elusiveness of this pitch, its higher spin rate, and its velocity differential relative to his fastball makes it a strong whiff pitch.
Lyles vs. Tigers' Batters
Primarily, Lyles throws a fastball, slider, changeup, and sinker.
His fastball is his favorite pitch overall -- he throws it with 29.3% frequency. But his slider is his favorite pitch for right-handed batters followed by his fastball and sinker. Followed by his changeup, Lyles' fastball is his favorite pitch to throw to left-handed batters.
I like Lyles tonight because the Tigers rank 29th in slugging under .300 against his four favorite pitches from righties.
Detroit's batters are ice-cold. On May 12th games, they scored more than 3 runs once. They were shut out three times and mostly scored 2 runs. Team BA leader Austin Meadows is still crashing back to earth. His slugging rate in May is .222.
Who Starts for the Tigers?
Detroit's starter Eduardo Rodriguez gets a soft test after pitching at the Twins, at the Dodgers, and most recently at Houston.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Orioles' Batters
I like Rodriguez tonight because he is a lefty and the Orioles rank dead-last in slugging .301 against lefties. Given these struggles, the "under" is 11-1-1 in Baltimore games where its opposing starting pitcher is left-handed.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, May 13, 2022 - 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Who Starts for the Red Sox?
Boston's starter Nick Pivetta has an awful ERA, but this ERA is deceptive because it is a season-long statistic. His ERA indicates that he has pitched awfully at times this season, but it doesn't reflect his current form.
Right now, Pivetta enjoys strong form. In his most recent starts, he yielded a 0.82 FIP at Baltimore and a 0.96 ERA against the White Sox.
Pivetta's favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws just over half the time. Opponents are batting .184 and slugging .265 against this pitch as they struggle, among other things, with its nice spin rate.
But Pivetta has developed a curveball, which, based on percentiles, has an excellently high spin rate. Its spin makes it harder for opposing batters to track.
He can distribute this pitch throughout the different parts of the strike zone, although pitchers typically locate curveballs low.
Moreover, this pitch keeps hitters off-balance in two ways. One, he'll often pair a low curveball with a high fastball such that the batter changes his eye level in sequential pitches. Two, this pitch averages about 16 fewer mph than his fastball, which means that batters will deal with radical shifts in pitch velocity.
Pivetta vs. Rangers' Batters
I like Pivetta tonight because the Rangers rank dead-last, by far, in slugging .268 against the fastball, curveball, and slider from righties.
These three pitches make up almost 98% of Pivetta's arsenal, so Pivetta's success with them will be decisive tonight.
Who Starts for the Rangers?
Rangers' starter Dane Dunning is coming off two great starts: he allowed one run in 7.2 innings against the Braves before allowing one earned run in 6 innings in Yankee Stadium.
Dane Dunning vs. Red Sox' Batters
Dunning primarily throws a sinker, slider, and changeup. With our best bets in mind, I like him to succeed tonight because the Red Sox rank 25th in slugging .301 against these three pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-108) at Heritage Sports
MLB Parlay Verdict
Expect pitching duels in Detroit and Texas where all four starting pitchers enjoy strong matchups in their favor.
For the above reasons, parlay the "under" between the Orioles and Tigers and the "under" between the Red Sox and Rangers.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks
- Under 7.5 (-103)
- Under 8 (-108)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+280) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
