Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 2 Best Bets: Minnesota’s Shooters Rediscover Their Stroke

Minnesota’s Bounce-Back Trend

In the minds of many bettors, Oklahoma City’s blowout victory over Minnesota in Game 1 reiterates how good the Thunder are. But the Thunder are a vulnerable team that Denver most recently took to a Game 7.

The Thunder looked so great in Game 1 on Tuesday, primarily because it is easy to look great when your opponent is so bad. Minnesota lost Game 1 because it underperformed, just like in Game 2 of its series against the Lakers and in Game 1 in its series against the Warriors.

In both of those games, as they did in Game 1 against OKC, the Thunder failed to reach 90 points.

Minnesota is showing in this postseason, however, that it tends to bounce back: in Game 3 against the Lakers, the Timberwolves scored 116 points and won by twelve; in Game 2 against Golden State, they scored 117 points and won by 24.

These big swings from one game to another are rather typical in the modern NBA — we saw them in the series between the Celtics and Knicks, for example. Like Boston, Minnesota loves to shoot a lot of threes. So, you’ll get these games where this team can’t make a shot, in which case, because players get demoralized after missing shots and consequently struggle on defense, the same team also struggles to defend.

I will argue that, by making more shots, the Timberwolves will be able to implement more effective tactics that will aid them on both offense and defense.

Will Minnesota Shoot Better?

It’s one thing if the Timberwolves struggled to get good looks because of OKC’s defense.

But, again, Game 1 was a Timberwolves loss more than it was a Thunder win.

In that game, the Timberwolves accumulated 18 open three-point attempts and, amazingly, 30 wide-open three-point attempts. They converted 33.3 percent of the former and 26.7 percent of the latter.

OKC packed the paint and dared the Timberwolves to shoot from three. This strategy, which is so simplistic, obviously does not show that the Thunder defense is too tough for Minnesota’s offense. The Timberwolves’ shooters were simply rusty.

We should expect Minnesota’s shooters to bounce back if they are good shooters. Indeed, the Timberwolves are objectively good at making threes. They have shown this all year. They own the fourth-best three-point conversion rate.

More Than Just Making Shots

Minnesota’s improved ability to make threes will yield consequences that will make life easier for it on both offense and defense.

By commanding the OKC defense’s respect for its three-point shooting ability, Minnesota will be able to attack the paint more.

First of all, the Thunder were already able to get into the paint in Game 1. They simply settled for too many early shot-clock threes. In a closer game, they will feel less pressure to heave early shot-clock threes.

Expect a more patient offense in Game 1 that features better ball movement. 

Superstar Anthony Edwards is Minnesota’s offensive centerpiece who plays the biggest role in deciding how good his team’s offense is in a given game. 

As he did in Round 1 against the Lakers, for example, he’ll have a game especially early in a series where he is flummoxed by the attention that the defense devotes to him. 

But he always bounces back. As he did against the Lakers, he will show his ability to counter double-teams by amassing assists without turning the ball over. 

In order to attempt more shots and score more points, he’ll rely more on off-ball movement, which will enable him to get open and to attempt to score while facing less pressure from the defense.

The Value of Rudy Gobert

By falling behind, the Timberwolves created more problems for themselves that won’t repeat themselves in Game 2.

They played Rudy Gobert less in the second half so that Naz Reid, who is more of a scorer than a defender, could play more. Reid, though, happened to be useless on both ends because, in addition to defending poorly, he had a nightmare performance from deep, making zero of his seven three-point attempts.

Trends do show Reid, who has been a very efficient scorer throughout the postseason, to be a great candidate to bounce back. He will give Minnesota the needed productivity from its bench tonight.

But in a closer game, Gobert will play more. This will be great for Minnesota in two respects.

One, the four-time Defensive Player of the Year will exhibit his characteristically elite rim protection and limit the success that Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and other Thunder scorers accumulate at the basket.

Two, he can get more rebounds on offense and otherwise demonstrate his repeated prowess against small-ball lineups when the Thunder presumably continue sacrificing Isaiah Hartenstein’s rim protection and giving Hartenstein, a traditional center, less playing time.

Gobert’s 27-point output in Game 5 against the Lakers and his 35-point output on April 11 against the Nets illustrate his capacity to punish an opposing defense for going small.

Additional Factors

Jaden McDaniels played 14 fewer minutes in Game 1 than he averaged throughout his team’s second-round series. This is because he fouled out.

McDaniels is an All-Defensive Team selection who can and will do a better job of defending without fouling. He is an elite perimeter defender who will continue to limit the efficiency of Gilgeous-Alexander, who, despite getting to play so many minutes without being guarded by McDaniels, converted 37 percent of his field goal attempts in Game 1.

McDaniels was also having success on offense, converting three of his five field goal attempts.

Gilgeous-Alexander will be further limited by the greater success of Minnesota’s shooters because, in making more shots, the Timberwolves will concede fewer long rebounding opportunities and thus fewer transition baskets.

Takeaway

Minnesota has proven all year to be a good shooting team. The Timberwolves will make way more threes in Game 2, which will help them on offense also by opening up the paint more and on defense by making it harder for OKC to score in transition.

A stronger offensive output from Minnesota, consistent with its output in the game that followed its two previous offensive duds in this postseason, will allow it to play Gobert more, who will improve Minnesota’s half-court defense by securing its interior.

Holmgren is my favorite player to target for props. Holmgren, who scored 15 points in Game 1 with Gobert absent for so long, loses big from Gobert’s presence. Thus, I find it very reasonable to expect him to score at least one fewer point in Game 2.

NBA Pick: Timberwolves +7.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Timberwolves +7.5 (-110)

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NBA Pick: Chet Holmgren Under 14.5 Points (-130) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Chet Holmgren Under 14.5 Points (-130)

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