Timberwolves vs. Lakers NBA Playoffs Game 5 Best Bet: Minnesota Has Untapped Powers

The Angle

The Lakers are favored much too heavily in this game.

I find this to be the case because Minnesota has the more complete team, the stronger squad from top to bottom, that is able to flex its matchup advantages.

Los Angeles’ Deficient Bench

To portray this matchup as even, it was cast as a top-heavy Lakers time going against a deep Minnesota team.

It is now evidently true that Los Angeles’ bench is not nearly as productive as Minnesota’s.

Even when the Lakers won, in Game 2, their bench was outscored by Minnesota’s 19-13.

Los Angeles’ lack of depth places a tremendous burden on its three best players, Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves, who need to outperform Minnesota’s top three scorers, Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, and Jaden McDaniels, to a sufficient extent.

Anthony Edwards

Problematically for Los Angeles, the Lakers are unable to rely on their three best players to be better than Minnesota’s.

Anthony Edwards has shown tremendous growth in this series as a well-rounded player.

His scoring on offense is almost as extensive as Luka’s — he is averaging 29.8 points per game this series, whereas Luka is averaging one point more per game.

But Edwards has also been a better distributor and a more ball-secure one. His 5.8 assists-to-1.5 turnovers ratio is fantastic and, given the energetic attention that Los Angeles’ defense has paid to him, impressive. For comparison’s sake, Luka commits three more turnovers per game in this series.

Edwards, moreover, has been the far superior defender. He does a great job staying in front of Luka and of contesting Reaves’ shots, whereas on offense he and his teammates repeatedly target Luka.

Minnesota’s Inside Attack

The Lakers’ interior defense is thin since Anthony Davis departed and since Jaxson Hayes has been unable to play many minutes in this series.

Edwards has improved a lot as a shooter, but he still likes to drive to the basket.

He is effective inside, as is Julius Randle, who is averaging 22.5 points per game this series, as he is finally succeeding in the playoffs because, in contrast to his days as a Knick, he has developed as a player and is not his team’s number one option.

It is important for Minnesota to have an effective third option. This has been Jaden McDaniels.

Minnesota’s one loss in this series is also the one game in which McDaniels failed to reach ten points.

He and his team surely know that he needs to be aggressive on offense for his team to win. In Minnesota’s three wins thus far, he has scored 16 to 30 points.

McDaniels has a strong history in close-out games, so one must expect him to continue thriving against the Lakers’ thin interior defense.

He is, moreover, an All-NBA Defensive Team selection who can help keep Luka from scoring more points than he does.

Minnesota’s Bench

The Timberwolves have a deeper team, with its bench proving to be vastly more productive than the Lakers’.

Impressively, Minnesota has not gotten much out of Donte DiVincenzo, who in his last three years averages around 40 percent from deep, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who has shot over 38 percent from deep in each of his last two seasons, and Rudy Gobert, who averaged 19.4 points per game in the regular season in April largely by dominating teams like the Nets that, like the Lakers, lack a true center.

Minnesota can already count on Laker killer Naz Reid, who is averaging 13.8 points per game in this series.

Depth and Freshness

Reid along with DiVincenzo is instrumental to Minnesota’s closing endeavors.

In particular, Reid is able to help his team close games in this series because Gobert is able to play a lot of minutes.

Rudy Gobert has proven to be effective on switches and generally in guarding the perimeter.

Of course, the four-time Defensive Player of the Year makes protecting the rim look easy, which is what he is primarily known for.

He hasn’t been featured much on offense in this series because his teammates are commonly able to get to the basket and to find one of many open and efficient three-point shooters. But his defense is good enough to make his presence on the court worthwhile, such that Reid can stay fresh for the entire course of the game.

The Timberwolves are up 3-1 in this series because they have consistently dominated the closing phase in games. Their depth allows them to be fresh, whereas the Lakers’ stars are tired. To cover the spread, the Lakers would essentially have to win by more points than the spread suggests to make up for gains that Minnesota will make at the end.

Some people criticize L.A.’s head coach for not allowing his three best players to rest more when they lead, but the team’s lead would be quicker to vanish if they rested more.

Los Angeles’ related concerns with its depth and freshness can be counted on to exacerbate the inability of its top three players, when they are fresh, to outperform Minnesota’s top three tonight.

Buffer

Minnesota’s advantages, including its depth and its ability to win the turnover battle by using its length and athleticism to bother guys like Luka while guards like Edwards withstand defensive pressure, create a buffer for it.

The Timberwolves can allow the Lakers to go out of their minds shooting-wise, as when LeBron and Reaves helped the Lakers convert 42.5 percent of their three-point attempts in Game 3, and still win.

In Game 4, likewise, the Lakers benefitted from ridiculous shot-making and made 19 threes. Yet, again, they still lost.

Takeaway

It is far likelier that the Lakers will decline shooting-wise than that DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker remain quiet on offense.

Minnesota has these two untapped powers, along with Gobert, that reinforce the positiveness of their outlook.

Their stars are better, and they have the complete team.

They flex their matchup advantages by attacking the basket against Los Angeles’ thin interior defense, which has to devote extra energy to keep Minnesota from accumulating ceaseless layups while at the same time keeping Minnesota’s collection of efficient shooters from converting too many three-point attempts.

The Lakers’ defense is overwhelmed in this matchup to an extent that has yet to really be apparent. 

At the same time, Minnesota’s length and athleticism give the Lakers a lot of trouble, such that their greater tendency to turn the ball over that was conspicuous in Game 3 gives Minnesota more possessions and impedes their rhythm.

When the Lakers’ shot-declining regresses, it will be more apparent how difficult the Timberwolves’ defense is for them to navigate.

People want to bet on the Lakers because they admire their stars and think that they will play with greater desperation and will exceed Minnesota’s effort in Los Angeles.

Their season is on the line, yes, but the Timberwolves will be determined to close out the series. Let’s look at history to ground our expectations in real data: last season, Minnesota was 2-0 in close-out games, beating Phoenix and Denver by six and eight points, respectively. Both of those wins took place on the road.

You can count on the Timberwolves to at the very least cover the spread.

NBA Pick: Timberwolves +6 (-115) at BetOnline

Timberwolves +6 (-115)

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