The Western Conference playoff series between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies is tied at 2-2 as it returns to Memphis on Tuesday night.
Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks? Let’s break down the NBA odds for this game!
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tuesday, April 26, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at FedExForum
Timberwolves-Grizzlies is one of three NBA playoff games on Tuesday and TNT has the telecast. Teams that win Game 5 of a 2-2 best-of-7 series go on to win the series 82.2 percent of the time (180-39).
I do expect Memphis to prevail but it may take seven. On the updated series line, the Grizzlies are -290 and the Timberwolves +245. Memphis in six is the +140 favorite followed by in seven at +165 and then Minnesota in seven (+500) and in six (+600).
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To win the West, the Grizzlies are +500 third favorites and the Timberwolves +4000. Just as a fan, I’m glad this game isn’t in Minneapolis because I’m getting very tired of these ridiculous protestors trying to disrupt games there. Security took some girl down in Game 4 at Target Center. It was awesome.
Memphis has covered the spread in 17 of the past 23 vs. Minnesota.
Towns Gets Aggressive in Game 4
The big story of Minnesota’s 104-95 home loss in Game 3, other than blowing a pair of 20-plus point leads, was how ineffective Timberwolves big man and former No. 1 overall pick Karl-Anthony Towns was with just four shot attempts and eight points in 33 minutes.
Towns was being ravaged for not being aggressive enough, and he clearly took that to heart in Game 4 Saturday as the Timberwolves won 119-118 behind his 33 points and 14 rebounds.
He joined Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett as the only T'Wolves players to record a 30-and-10 playoff game. Towns was 14-for-17 from the free-throw line, easily a personal playoff high for free throws made and attempted in the postseason.
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"He was angry," Minnesota coach Chris Finch said of Towns' attitude before the contest. "He was really good from the beginning: aggressive, putting pressure on them, forcing them to blow the whistle, get to the free-throw line, things that he hadn't been doing a lot in the last couple of games."
Minnesota attempted a whopping 40 foul shots overall as Memphis was called for 33 fouls. Anthony Edwards added 24 points and backup Jordan McLaughlin, who didn't play in Game 3, went 4-for-4 from 3-point range for 16 points.
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The Timberwolves outscored Memphis by a team-best six points when McLaughlin was on the floor. Both Edwards and Towns dubbed McLaughlin the “MVP” of the win. He clearly will not sit out another game in this series.
All that went right and the Wolves only won by a point at home. D’Angelo Russell continued to struggle, making just 3-for-12 from the field for 10 points. He has been downright bad in three of the four games in this series. The Wolves are 2-6 against the spread in their past eight overall.
Officiating Big Story Saturday
Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins ripped the officiating after Game 4 and he had a point. The Memphis starting five alone was called for 25 fouls, more than the Timberwolves had as a team (23).
Each Grizzlies starter had two fouls by the 11:32 mark of the second quarter. Jaren Jackson Jr. has 20 personal fouls in the four games while converting only 14 field goals – he fouled out of Game 4.
“In my opinion, [this was] one of the most poorly officiated games I've ever seen in my NBA career," Jenkins said in his postgame news conference. "All five of our starters borderline fouled out in the first quarter. Ten-plus foul difference, 40 free throws. Yeah, some things we've got to clean and get better at, but I've never seen a more inconsistent and arrogant officiated game.”
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Jenkins was fined $15,000 by the NBA. For what it’s worth, Minnesota has been called for 111 total fouls in the series and Memphis 99, so I’d expect the Grizzlies to get to the line more than the Wolves in Game 5 back at home.
Memphis’ Desmond Bane led all players with 34 points on 8-for-12 shooting from 3-point range. The Timberwolves did do a fantastic job on Grizzlies All-Star Ja Morant, who was 4-for-13 from the field for just 11 points, although he did have 15 assists and eight rebounds.
Morant apparently isn’t 100 percent healthy. The Grizz were outscored by six with him on the court.
The Pick
“I can be honest right now. I’m not Ja right now,” Morant said after Game 4. “I’ve seen y’all’s tweets. Y’all know what I’m talking about. I’m not playing above the rim,” said Morant. He had 20 free-throw attempts in Game 1, but since then has earned just 17 total trips to the line since.
Aside from Game 2, the Grizzlies have trailed for all but 17 minutes in this series. While I do think Memphis wins Game 5, it will be another close one. Simulations I have run have the Grizzlies winning by about four for my NBA picks.
Score Prediction: Grizzlies 120, Timberwolves 116
NBA Pick: Timberwolves +6.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
